Hot CPI data pushes December Fed hike odds to 83%

Market predictions for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December have risen to an estimated 82-83% following a hot month-over-month CPI inflation print released on the morning of November 10, 2026. Tim Warren attributes the elevated inflation figures primarily to energy costs, noting that energy inflation is running at 10% and transportation at 7-8%. He links these spikes to high oil prices resulting from the ongoing war in Iran. Warren argues that if the conflict ends, oil prices will plummet, effectively removing the energy component from inflation calculations. He suggests that excluding energy, other inflation metrics are at or below the Fed's 2% target. Warren predicts that once oil prices drop, the Fed will be able to stop raising rates and potentially begin cutting, a move he views as bullish for risk assets. He stated, "The minute the war with Iran officially ends... I think oil prices start to plummet."