Texas Senate contest becomes most expensive non-presidential race in history

The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Tallarico and Republican Ken Paxton has surpassed $500 million in ad spending, potentially making it the most expensive non-presidential contest in U.S. history. As of Monday morning, Real Clear Politics shows Tallarico with a 2-point edge, while Polymarket odds favor him significantly. Focus groups indicate that 2024 Trump voters are rejecting Paxton due to personal baggage and corruption concerns, with many describing him as a "crook" or "criminal." Tallarico's campaign has found success with a message focusing on billionaires and special interests rather than the "wrong 1%" targeted by Republican ads. Early voting began in Texas, with Republicans losing support among Latino voters, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. The race is characterized by a "one-two punch" of a bad national environment and a deeply flawed Republican candidate. Pollsters suggest that Paxton's personal liabilities and the national economic climate are making the race vulnerable to Democrats despite the state's historical Republican leanings. The New York Times reported the race has surpassed $500 million in ad spending, noting it could become the most expensive non-presidential contest in U.S. history.