Cook Political Report projects significant Democratic gains in House and Senate

The Cook Political Report projects that Democrats will flip the House, with a median outcome of a 15 to 20 seat gain, moving from a starting floor of 215 seats. Analysts note that 11 House races shifted toward Democrats in the last week, including districts Trump won by 10 to 20 points in 2024, such as Kentucky's 6th and New York's 21st. In the Senate, 13 races are called competitive; Democrats need to win three Republican seats to gain a majority if they hold their own. Michigan is the most vulnerable Democratic seat due to Abdul El-Sayed's need to expand his base. North Carolina is the best pickup opportunity, followed by Ohio and Alaska. Democrats could reach 54 seats on a good night or fall short with 48 or 49. Republicans attempted to bolster their majority via mid-decade redistricting, yielding only three or four additional seats, while Democrats only needed to flip three. Trump's approval rating is 37% according to Cook and 38% according to Real Clear Politics, with a 24-point deficit in his tracker. The generic congressional ballot shows Democrats ahead 50 to 41. Analysts argue that the lack of a traditional late-cycle Republican polling surge and Trump's low approval ratings are driving unexpected Democratic competitiveness in traditionally red districts. Dave Wasserman stated, "I think the median outcome is a Democratic gain somewhere in the 15 to 20 seat range."