Anthropic IPO valuation drops to $1.5 trillion

Anthropic is proceeding with its initial public offering, aiming to raise $80 billion at a valuation of $1.5 trillion. This figure represents a significant decrease from initial estimates of $2 trillion. Bloomberg reported that some institutional buyers were looking for a valuation as low as $1.1 trillion, while other reports suggest the valuation has fallen to an estimated $1.2 to $1.3 trillion. The prospectus reveals a quarterly revenue of $17 billion but an operating loss, with the company holding $895 billion in payment commitments, primarily for compute power. The probability of the IPO proceeding is traded at 80% on Hyperliquid.

The lower valuations are seen as potentially better for retail investors, providing exit liquidity for early backers. Michael Field of Morningstar suggested Anthropic would likely take what it can get, while Andrew Curran noted the valuation cut represents a better entry point for believers. For context, OpenAI recently closed a funding round at a $1.25 trillion valuation, securing $11 billion against an initial $30 billion target. Investors in OpenAI's round included KOTU, T. Rowe Price, SoftBank, Sequoia, Founders Fund, and A16Z. SoftBank invested only hundreds of millions in the round, a defensive move as its stock dropped 20% in a week. OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer stated that business grew 70% in Q3 with enterprise revenue doubling. Analysts note that maintaining a high valuation on public markets is more challenging than securing private funding, and the shift reflects the risky market environment following a $3.2 trillion loss in US stock market value.