Bitcoin holds 80k as Fed policy uncertainty persists

Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,000, attempting to maintain support following a recent pullback from its highs. The macro environment remains challenging due to Federal Reserve policy, which has already included one rate hike and is expected to hold steady at the upcoming FOMC meeting. There is potential for another hike in December, as the Fed prioritizes curbing inflation over stimulating economic activity. Inflation is being driven partly by the Middle East war and high gas and diesel prices. If the Fed signals four or more hikes for 2027, it could trigger a sell-off in the asset. Conversely, a resolution to the Middle East conflict by early next year could lead to rate cuts in the third or fourth quarter of 2027, which would benefit Bitcoin. The speaker argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle is evolving, with Bitcoin performance now more correlated with business cycles, liquidity flows, and election years rather than halving events alone. Despite these headwinds, the speaker maintains a long-term bullish stance, advocating for a Dollar-Cost Averaging strategy and holding through volatility. The speaker noted that past macro conditions were worse and Bitcoin recovered, stating, "I do feel confidently that we have started recovering from our bottom, right? But not fully, obviously."