Tonies stock nears record high on US expansion hopes
Tonies shares rose to 14.18 euros as analysts raised price targets, betting on US market growth. The company faces margin pressure from tariffs and low-margin box sales despite strong revenue growth.
Tonies stock climbed to 14.18 euros, approaching its November 2021 record of 14.20 euros, after Otto BAF raised its price target to 17.50 euros. The move reflects analyst confidence that the US market will eventually mirror the high-margin profile of the company’s home DACH region. In the first half, Tonies sold 12 million boxes and 165 million figures, with revenue growing 38% to 243 million euros. However, EBITDA margin was only 0.7%, weighed down by US tariffs and the low-margin nature of box sales.
The disparity between regions is stark. The DACH region posted a 24.4% EBITDA margin, compared to just 1.3% in North America. Despite this, North America overtook DACH in revenue, generating 104 million euros in the first half. Management projects a full-year margin of 9-11%, or 70-80 million euros, which requires a strong second-half performance. The company is expanding its content portfolio with figures from Pokémon, Snoop Dogg, and FC Bayern to drive engagement.
Investors are also watching the November expiration of IPO options, which allow shares to be bought at 11.50 euros. If the share price remains above 13 euros, this could lead to dilution for existing shareholders. The Tonybox 2 launched in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland in mid-September 2025, adding to the product mix as the company navigates its US expansion.