Investors question trillion-dollar valuations for Anthropic and OpenAI
Analysis suggests that rapid adoption of open-source models undermines the financial basis for Anthropic and OpenAI's targeted IPO valuations. Critics argue that slowing revenue growth and high infrastructure costs make the proposed figures difficult to justify.
Anthropic and OpenAI are targeting initial public offering valuations between $1.5 and $2 trillion, but investors are increasingly questioning the sustainability of these figures. The primary concern is the rapid adoption of open-weight and open-source models, which currently account for two-thirds to 70% of token consumption. AT&T reported that its use of open models has grown from a fraction at the start of the year to 40%, with plans to reach 60-70% in the coming months. Additionally, Microsoft and Meta have reduced their consumption of Anthropic's services by 50% due to high costs.
Leaked revenue data indicates that Anthropic's growth has slowed to approximately 40% quarter-over-quarter, a significant deceleration from previous tenfold growth narratives. Thomas Rappold estimates a fair valuation for Anthropic at $700-800 billion, suggesting the $2 trillion target is inflated by aggressive marketing rather than fundamental performance. He argues that the gap between open-source and commercial models is only three to four months, further eroding the premium associated with proprietary frontier models.