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Beijing interprets US arms sales to Taiwan as commercial opportunities rather than security guarantees. This perception reduces Beijing's fear of US intervention, emboldening more aggressive posturing and reducing the deterrent effect of US military support.

Impact: Misaligned perceptions of intent increase the risk of miscalculation and accidental escalation between the two powers.

— from China Military Purge Reshapes Strategic Command · The Journal.· Feb 11, 2026