Everything on Technology & Market Cycles

The AI investment cycle features extreme market concentration but is backed by substantial corporate profitability and reasonable forward valuation multiples.

Impact: Reduces immediate bubble risk compared to 2000, but requires monitoring of vendor financing distortions and hyperscaler capex sustainability.

— from Navigating AI Booms, Rising Yields, and Market Volatility · Deffner und Zschäpitz – Der Wirtschafts-Talk von WELT· May 19, 2026

Semiconductor valuations are decoupling from historical cycles due to AI infrastructure demand, but supply chain bottlenecks and energy constraints will eventually enforce cyclical discipline.

Impact: Investors must hedge against commodity-driven cost inflation and monitor power grid capacity as leading indicators of sector inflection.

— from AI Cycles, Real Estate Stabilization, and EM Index Distortion · Deffner und Zschäpitz – Der Wirtschafts-Talk von WELT· May 12, 2026