Everything on Strategic Thinking

Deterministic predictions about the future, especially regarding AI, are frequently flawed because experts are generally poor at prediction and often use certainty as a defense mechanism against uncertainty.

Impact: Prevents leadership from making high-risk, rigid bets on a single projected outcome, reducing potential for catastrophic strategic failure.

— from Strategic Uncertainty: Scenario Planning vs. Future Prediction in AI · All Things Product with Teresa and Petra· Apr 21, 2026