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Prediction markets are becoming leading indicators of political events because they react to news in real-time, whereas polls often act as a trailing indicator. However, they still rely on polling as a foundational input for many bettors.

Impact: Shifts the focus from static survey data to dynamic financial markets for real-time political forecasting.

— from AI Polling, Prediction Markets, and the Contentization of Politics · Pivot· Apr 07, 2026