# Crypto Market Strategy: Navigating Bearish Sentiment

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-11-10

## Transcript

They do not want retail sticking around and holding onto crypto at these prices because they want to buy as much.
And to buy it, they need someone to sell it.
And that's what's happening right now.
Don't panic.
The inflation print this morning came in hot.
Bitcoin is reacting negatively.
We're right now fighting to hold on to $73,000, but this is not the end of the world.
We are going to get through all this together.
Hello and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that believes that buying fear is a good deal at any price, but we really wish Halloween was over already.
I'm your host, John Gillen.
Today is Tuesday, November 10th, and today we are joined by Tim Warren.
Tim is a crypto analyst and the host of the Tim Warren show where he breaks down charts every day.
Tim is one of the best people to talk to in moments like this because he is a cool head.
He's been a crypto trader for a long time and he is a chart master and a TA expert.
So if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.
Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it.
And as a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our partners at Alumni Ventures, giving accredited investors access to private market investment opportunities alongside leading VC firms and Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you earn, trade and borrow all in one place, all from one account.
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But for now, welcome to Milk Road Crypto.
Tim Warren, sir, how are you?
What's going on, John?
How are you doing?
I'm good, man.
I think I'd be doing a lot better if Bitcoin was doing better.
Yeah, I hear you.
I feel you.
That's maybe a good place to start the conversation today is just with your updated outlook on Bitcoin.
We just did an hour before we started recording.
Lost 75K.
We're now fighting for 73.
Do you want to just hop into the charts and kind of tell me what you're seeing here?
Yeah, well, I mean, as we're recording this video, the composite man manipulators, they've been busy here today.
Take a look real quickly.
I'm at the 15-minute chart.
And of course, we're recording this around 11 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time.
So things could even be changed as people are watching this.
But look at the, after we had this big dropout back here on the 8th, look at the volatility here in price action.
Even today, look at like a five-minute chart this morning, right?
Big drop on the news that the CPI inflation was hot.
Then we rallied back up.
eliminated all the losses and then took another dump.
Here's what's interesting though.
Where are we with this dump?
This dump at the moment is sitting right at the 200 day moving average.
So yeah, people don't like this.
People don't like the fact that Bitcoin is the lowest it's been since all the way back on August 20th.
Why do I, why am I not freaking out necessarily?
Anyone who watched my show remembers, and I was a little early with the call, but I told people back over here late September, I said, listen, the sales thing that they're starting to pile in.
This is awesome that we put in a new higher high for the first time in that entire bear market, right?
I still am a believer that the lows do look like they were back over here in July or June or whatever, back here at 57.7.
I've told people if I end up being wrong about that.
I'll shave my beard, right?
I've not had a clean shaven face since I was 19 years old.
I'm 32 right now.
So it's been 13 years, right?
I'll shave.
If we drop below 57.7, I will shave my beard.
But there's a lot of things about this movement, the breaking of the 200-day moving average, the breaking of the bear market trend line, the higher high of trend.
I think it's crazy too, John, that people are looking at this right now and they're freaking out because all they're looking at, effectively, they're just looking at this part of the movement, right?
That's not a fun looking chart.
But if you zoom out and you take a look at everything into perspective, we're getting terrible, terrible, terrible news.
The fear and greed index just hit back into extreme fear for the first time since all the way back over here in August.
And yet we are, let me just make sure I get this number right.
We are still 17% higher than we were the last time we were at this level of fear.
This to me.
is just a screaming, healthy correction.
I even warned my community when we were looking at those sales teams, I said, get ready for the next couple of weeks, next couple of months, get ready for headlines that terrify you, that are convincing you it's time to sell.
Why?
Because...
you've heard me use the expression, the composite man.
If people don't know what the composite man is, it's a theory based off of a Richard Wyckoff, a man who was an investor a hundred years ago, but he had a theory that markets are so manipulative, but he has said that you have to imagine all of these large entities, think the massive banks, massive investment firms, massive world governments.
It's like they get together in a room and they operate like one figure called the composite man and they manipulate media and they manipulate emotions of retail.
investors to whipsaw the markets around.
And so when things are getting too bullish, they have to cool it off.
When things are getting too bearish, they have to make it get hot again.
They want to get your emotional state up and down, up and down and up and down.
But one of the biggest things they do is right as things are topping out and they're ready to take profits, they'll print a bunch of bullish headlines.
So anyone who heard my call back over here in September saying, hey, we need to have a correction.
probably back towards the 200 moving average they were saying tim you're nuts you're crazy did you not just see a headline where and i can't remember what the headline was at this point but this super bullish thing just happened tim we have to keep going higher we're going to go over 90k And I said, I'm not I'm not so certain just yet.
And even right now, you know, we're sitting right down here at seventy three thousand dollars.
We're on the two hundred moving average.
But what did we just hear?
Oh, no.
Binance, the largest exchange is being hacked.
It just got hacked last week.
Oh, no.
The Democrats just won and Democrats are terrible for for crypto.
Oh, no.
The inflation data came out hot month over month, which we just got the highest rating a reading of.
of a rate hike in December that we've had so far.
All of this is fear mongering at its finest.
And yet we're still sitting here right now.
Just at the 200-day moving average.
I didn't know any details.
I didn't know what stories would develop in the month of October and November.
All I said was I'm looking at the charts.
I see the sell signals.
I see reasons to say we need to sell off.
And I'm looking at that 200-day moving average, and it looks enticing to me.
If we keep dropping, John, I told you before the show, I always prepare myself for even – like seven weeks ago, I said 200-day moving average.
We're here now.
If we go lower.
There are some levels I'm looking at that also have some significance to me.
If people are familiar with fair value gaps, we just tapped into the beginning of a large grouping of fair value gaps here at 72.9, give or take.
There's another package right here on 71.6 and another package down here at 68.4.
If you heard those numbers called out by other technical analysts, this is one of the reasons why is that these are areas where people did not get to fill.
People didn't get to buy them.
The markets moved so fast back over here in August that there were buy orders that were completely skipped at these levels.
So returning to them is not the craziest thing in the world.
Do we have to go down there?
No, we don't have to.
To me, I'm a buyer today.
I'm a spot buyer at that 200-day moving average.
But I'm also aware, hey, if this ball keeps on rolling, I'm okay with the move even as low as 68, 4, give or take 68, 5.
If we lose that fair value gap, I'm not saying, uh-oh, we definitely are.
going lower than 57.7.
But something I said a week ago, or not a week ago, I said a week and a half ago, I said, okay, listen, I am like 90% certain the bottom of the bear market is in.
When we had this rally here, I was a little surprised at how fast we rallied back over here in November.
And I said, okay, we got back up above some resistance.
Okay, maybe I was wrong about, let's say, the 200 moving average.
And I said something like, I'm 60%.
I feel like 60% chance we actually could rally before the next fall.
That ended up being wrong, right?
So the 40% made its way, but I'm still sitting today as we're talking about being on top of the 200 moving average, I'm still sitting at 90% probability that we do not go below 57.7.
If we come down and we eat below 71 and start to come down towards a 68.5, I'll probably lower that to like 70%.
Okay, I'm going to give the bears a little bit of weight.
If we lose 68.5, I might get to a place where I'm like, okay.
I'm 50-50.
I'm not saying it's definitely going to drop below, but losing that level of support where we have a lot of buyers coming in, that's when I would probably, you can go off my screen now if you want to, that's when I would start to say, oh, this is more serious than I thought it would be.
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Okay.
So just to summarize here, you're still not scared about this correction we're seeing.
This is kind of more or less what you were expecting.
The $73,000 level you said is the 200-day moving average.
I've heard other people saying that that 68K level is the 200-week moving average, which is historically strong support in a bear market as a floor.
Those are kind of the levels you're watching.
But until we break through there convincingly, you're not scared of a new lower low.
Is that about the summary of your outlook on this one?
Yeah, good summary.
And again, it's...
It's because it goes back to my philosophy is that the composite man is working overtime to convince retail investors like you and me to capitulate and to freak out and to sell dips.
I don't know about you, John, but I've seen a lot of people on X just saying, Tim, I'm getting tired.
I'm getting tired.
When is this going to actually be bullish?
I'm getting tired.
And I'm like.
That's, this is, it's a, it's a boxing match, man.
Like sometimes they knock you out in the first round, but sometimes there's, there's people that are OGs that still, they just can't make it in that seventh, eighth, ninth round and they get exhausted and they give up.
And I, and it's just like, man, whenever historically, whenever I've seen this level of like, let's just call it what it is, depression, crypto depression.
That's one of the most bullish signals out there when retail is borderline.
depressed and ready to give up.
That means the composite man has done his job very well.
Well, you're doing your job very well too.
I want to talk about some of these leading altcoins as well and get your thoughts on this because we're seeing pullbacks across the board here.
Ethereum is just a couple dollars over 2k right now.
Solana is almost $80.
You can start wherever you want, but I'd love to get your outlook on some of these alts.
Are you accumulating those as well?
Are there levels you have in mind there?
What's your outlook on the altcoin space right now?
Yeah, I think the altcoin space, there's a couple of outliers, but it's not altcoin season.
So one of the things I do, I look at the altcoin sectors to look for key levels of support and key levels of resistance.
And I do some day trading.
People always ask, Tim, how do you pick up extra dry powder to buy these dips?
I day trade.
I'm not afraid of shorting markets.
I short Bitcoin.
I short chain.
One of my favorite altcoins is Chainlink.
I short Chainlink when the markets say to short it.
I pick up some extra dry powder.
I buy the dips.
But at the end of the day.
Bitcoin chart, until we get into a roaring bull market, the Bitcoin chart will dictate what 99% of cryptocurrency does.
It is the head honcho.
A lot of people buy crypto indices and then they just watch the Bitcoin chart.
And effectively, they'll go buy their indice, which has a package of Chainlink and Ethereum and Solana and XRP and others when they watch Bitcoin do its thing.
I can look here and I can show you a couple areas of support that I'm interested in with a lot of coins.
The Bitcoin chart is going to be the most important.
Ethereum took out a pretty good chunk this morning.
Again, there was a nice fair value gap sitting here around 2100 almost.
This zone could go as low as 1926.
Does that mean that we stop automatically right there?
No, but you can see if you go back over to this indicator or this part of the price action.
The explosion happened back here in August.
We kind of came from this 1960 area.
This would be a pretty hefty, hefty buying area.
People bought before and would be another zone people are looking to buy as well.
By the way, it's also shorting, right?
The markets have a lot of pressure.
They have bearish pressure.
They have bullish pressure.
Well, a lot of bears are looking at these types of indicators and they're taking profits on their short position saying, great, I just made a fat chunk of change on Ethereum shorts.
So again, Ethereum sitting in a spot that I would say it's not guaranteed the bottom is in just yet.
That's a big, big, nasty move today.
There was a support trend that got obliterated right here with this move here that we'd been under for a couple of weeks.
So the bears made a nasty push here.
What will happen on volume and lower timeframes?
That's going to be another thing to keep an eye on.
We did have a nice pickup of volume that came in here on this one hour chart.
Will that be the bulls buying it back up or will we stay down to that downside?
I could see us dropping back down to this little collaboration back here around 1920-ish.
But again, I think there's a lot of buying and a lot of profit taking on short positions.
It happens between where we currently are and those levels there.
So on Ethereum, that's kind of where I'm watching.
I'll say this.
One of the, I'm not surprised by a whole lot of what's happening right now, John, except maybe XRP.
I told people XRP, I liked one 20.
I think there was a world in which we got to like one 15, one 16.
I'm going to be, I'm going to be very honest with you.
XRP back down to 104 and potentially testing the lows of August down here on a dollar.
That one has me a little surprised.
Does this mean I hate XRP and I'm selling on my XRP?
No, I think XRP is kind of running through.
There was excitement about potential clarity act stuff happening back in August.
And ever since we kind of found out that was a wet blanket and now Democrats are in the house and the Senate.
So I think the odds of a clarity act passing.
In the next two years is probably pretty low.
I do think that's affecting XRP's price.
It is taking out a nice level.
I didn't think we'd get to this fair value gap, but this 106 area, that was a fair value gap.
That does mean there's some buyers in this spot.
XRP surprised me a little bit.
Chainlink, I'm loving what Chainlink is doing here.
Weeks ago, I told people 1117, anything below 11, I'm loving this.
Chainlink is staying on top of some key support here.
Could we see a wick down below $10?
We could.
We absolutely could.
I do not see us dropping below 918 where we have a 100% order block.
A massive amount of buying would happen at around 917.
But I like what I'm seeing right now on Chainlink.
Again, keeping above support.
Also, we're starting to see some potential.
And I didn't talk about this in every single coin, but you're starting to see for the first time in this pullback potential bullish divergence start to form.
What I mean by that is the RSI didn't get below 30.
But it's now, it's looking like we're putting in higher lows on the RSI.
Clearly in the price action, we're still putting in lower lows.
If I can grab this and go out of here.
There we go.
We're still putting in lower lows over here.
So anyone who knows technical analysis, one of the best buy signals out there is bullish divergence.
Lower lows of price action, but higher lows of RSI.
I bring that up on Chainlink right here.
But ultimately.
I see that across the board on a lot of these coins.
This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people, and I am not one of them.
So if you want to see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list, and when I'm going to be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milk Row Pro today.
It's just a dollar.
The link is in the description.
I answer questions day and night in Discord.
I'll see you there.
I'll take a break there.
Yeah, I'll let you ask some more questions.
But there's some other charts we can look at if you want to, though.
Yeah, well, I definitely want to do that because there's some more I want to ask you about.
But you brought up this concept of bullish diversions, and I'd like to unpack your thoughts around that a little bit.
Because throughout this year, I feel like we've seen, and you're talking about bullish divergence on the charts.
I'm talking about bullish divergence on fundamentals, right?
We've seen the Chainlink project get all these major adoption and partnerships from major institutions.
It was announced this week that the New York Stock Exchange is going to be settling tokenized stock trading on Avalanche.
You can go down the list.
There's been tons of institutional adoption and just really strong fundamentals around crypto and digital assets.
And yet, price action sentiment has been really lethargic and just weighed down for...
a year, maybe more at this point.
What are your thoughts on that in terms of like the long-term outlook for these assets?
Do you think eventually we will see some of these fundamentals start to translate into higher prices and improve sentiment?
Or is this like, just bear market just never going to end?
John, did you, did you have any little brothers or sisters?
Did you have younger siblings growing up?
I did.
I have a younger brother.
I had two younger brothers.
So, so a tactic I had to learn when I was younger, because if I wanted to play with something, If I wanted something and my younger siblings wanted as well and they started screaming, I found myself in trouble a lot trying to fend off my brothers.
And I just got in trouble.
Right.
So I had to learn at a young age to tactfully distract my younger brother.
I had to convince them if I wanted to play with this truck, I had to convince them that the boat over there is super cool.
And oh, I wish I could play with that boat.
That's awesome.
And then so they would be like, OK, let me go play with that boat because Tim thinks that's so cool.
Meanwhile, the whole time.
I wanted to play with the truck.
I didn't want to play with the boat, right?
I bring this up to say, going back to the composite man theory, there's this concept of they have to keep retail like a little brother distracted and they have to keep them away from what's happening.
Separate the charts for a second.
Don't think about charts for a minute.
If we just talk about factual.
fundamental collaborations in the crypto landscape.
And I'm not talking about, you know, exact who's buying this.
I'm saying who Chainlink's partnering with, who, Nier, Quant, Ondo, all these collaborations happening.
If you don't even know anything about price action, but you're just paying attention to who's doing business with who, it would make you think that you're going to go to the charts and all these cryptocurrencies are shooting to the moon, right?
They're not though.
But I said the word fact there for a reason, because what's happening right now is the media is putting out two very different stories.
One day we'll hear something factual.
This partnership just happened.
This coin just partnered with the DTCC.
This major bank just adopted and chose this altcoin to do their real world assets on.
But then you'll hear another article the next day saying, oh, such and so predicts that we won't have.
a bull market for the next 10 months.
Such and so predicts the economy is going to class.
What are we getting at?
We get bearish opinions, but we get bullish facts.
Why?
Because as bullish as the facts are, and those things are going to be reported.
The composite man like the big brother does not want you to buy these assets they are interested in because the more you buy them, the more competition for them to accumulate.
And therefore, the higher the price gets.
And all of a sudden, they miss out on all the massive gains.
Right.
But if they can convince you to look at something else or at least, oh, this truck is terrible.
This truck is a terrible.
This coin, this altcoin, it's not going to rally for the next 10, 15 months.
It's probably not going to be that big of a deal.
All of a sudden, you, the little brother, you're like, I don't want that.
I don't want to mess with that.
I want to say I was holding some of that.
I want to sell some of that.
And it gives them the ability to accumulate for longer at lower prices, knowing what's happening right now for the long term future is so unequivocally bullish.
Anyone with anyone who knows what they're doing in investing is buying this asset despite the negative price action.
But we want to discourage as many retail investors as possible.
So that's the divergence I'm watching fundamentally.
It's like this big brother, little brother thing.
They do not want retail sticking around and holding on to crypto at these prices because they want to buy as much.
And to buy it, they need someone to sell it.
And that's what's happening right now.
Tim, I really appreciate that perspective.
I think that's really helpful at a moment like this.
So I think people need to hear that right now.
I want to get back into some charts and get your thoughts on some things.
I'd love to look at Solana.
You mentioned Near Protocol, which I know a lot of our audience loves as well.
I'd love to see what your thoughts are on there, if there's any key levels you think we're coming up to, and just get an update on those.
Yeah, when it comes to Solana, this is one I told people, again, seven weeks ago.
you know i'm saying this to say listen i don't get all my the bottoms correct i said i was going to start buying at 93 right so i did buy some solana here a couple weeks ago at 93 but when we started to lose that level i told people okay look at the next fair value gap the next big bear buying area it's where we currently are right now around 82 this was the zone to keep an eye on so solana coming in at that spot I like Solana again.
I bought some more spots Solana this morning as we hit that key support level.
So that's my thoughts on Solana.
Could we keep dropping a little more?
Of course, there's pockets down here towards 75 that could be hit.
And again, if Bitcoin ends up losing the 200-day moving average, remember I said earlier.
We're probably going to watch altcoins just follow suit.
So that would then mean Solana probably does come back down towards 75.
But as we just discussed, fundamentally, if you eliminate this chart and just talk about what is Solana building in their infrastructure, you want to buy every one of these dips you can.
So that's where I'm at.
Solana, another buy level for me.
I'll buy more at 74 if we get down there.
You asked about NIR.
NIR is one that we were really excited about watching all the stuff happen with NIR.
I've said for a while I like.
And I'll talk, I don't know if we're gonna do Tau today.
We can't do like 147 coins.
Tau is my most exciting AI play in crypto.
Nier definitely showed over the fall, end of summer, into the fall.
Nier's a real player in the AI crypto space.
So I didn't buy it here.
I told people, listen, I love what's happening fundamentally with Nier.
but it's overdue for a correction, right?
The entire space is overdue for a correction.
And I told people I wanted to start buying down here at 370, got my wish.
The next spot I told people to look for is down here towards, I think we actually on the four hour chart, we're looking in this range right here on 340.
I could be wrong with this load for just one second, but yeah, that's actually, there's nothing popping up right there.
So.
Well, on the daily chart, let me go with 12-hour.
Let's just look here because I remember there was something that made me say 340 was going to be very interesting, but I cannot remember if it was a fair value gap or if it was something else.
There we go.
Yep.
Okay.
So 340, fair value gap on the 12-hour chart.
If you go to the daily chart, it does suggest you could see a pocket all the way down to 321 for near.
So again, I love my buy at 370 because it's not a buy at...
580.
And I'll buy more near if we were to make this pocket down here around, again, 320-ish.
330 to 320 is the next big pocket I'm looking for on near protocol.
I'm not worried about this negative price action.
This negative price action is a combination, like I said, of a healthy correction to allow elites and the composite man to buy an amazing asset.
There's a statement they say, if the retail ever misses the boat on a big rally, sucks to suck right but if institutions miss the boat or if the whales miss the boat they always find a way to bring the boat back and again these areas tell me where there's some massive desire to buy and so that's where i'm looking at buying as well gosh okay it seems like it seems like on a lot of these charts what what you're describing here looks to me like similar chart patterns from a lot of these things but a lot of them are just kind of retracing a lot of the moves that we've made for the last few months and it seems like we're in the process of finding what I would call in Bitcoin, a higher low, right?
So that seems like what is playing out here.
Do you think that this, would you characterize this really, I guess, is the question as the early stages of a new bull market or the last gasp of a bear market?
How are you reading this price action and just like where we are in the markets overall here?
Where things get really confusing is...
You know, I abandoned the four-year cycle theory about a year and a half ago saying I didn't think the four-year cycle would play out this time.
Now, I thought that we would have more institutional manipulation.
I was convinced that there would be a local top in the fall of 2025.
But I thought that that fall would be over probably sometime early 2026.
I thought that the manipulation would be way early.
Turns out that fall went all the way into June and July, right?
So I say all that to say at the moment, the low was July.
The low of this bear market so far has been in July.
If that holds, then that means the four-year cycle is wrong because the four-year cycle would suggest you shouldn't have had a bottom until October.
We are now sitting in the middle of November, and there are still people saying, oh, we can make it lower.
I'm like, well, okay, if we go lower, it still broke the cycle of the four-year cycle.
We're now extending a longer bear market instead of a shorter one.
So I say that to say I'm not a four-year cycle.
guy anymore.
I think that the reason why is because I think retail whales and the having events dictated Bitcoin's price action before.
It makes perfect sense why people had that cycle going, but institutions don't care about what retail thinks.
They also, if you look at the having significance, I think the last having was the last significant having event.
I think from here on out, having events for Bitcoin are very inconsequential.
So that's why I don't buy the four-year cycle theory anymore.
That being said, if you go to my chart here, there still are things that I'm watching that tell me, hey, we are historically bullish when these things happen.
For example, I won't show every single bear market into bull market, but let's just take a look, for example, at the 2022 bear market into 2033 bull market, right?
We had a falling wedge pattern.
We broke above that pattern.
If I pull up the SMAs, we broke above the 200 SMA.
We stayed below that 200 SMA, the entire bear market after we...
solidified the bear market was upon us, right?
We stayed below the trend line of resistance.
Ultimately, what happened was, and there's a lot of things here, but we broke the bear market trend line.
We broke the 200-day moving average.
We came back and retested the 200-day moving average, and then the bull market continued on, right?
There's a lot of other things that happened as well.
Like, for example, if I were to pull up the RSI, you'll see.
And it's going to get a little confusing.
Let me pull down some of my other oscillators.
I know sometimes my TA can get messy and funny looking.
But you also can see there was a clear downtrend of tops for the RSI on the daily chart, right?
Trends on the RSI are similar to trends on price action.
The bull market, when we were breaking the 200-day moving average and breaking the bear market trend line, we broke that trend, okay?
And by the way, I'm not going to show you every single one.
The same thing happened in 2018, 2019, and in the 2014, 2015 one as well.
What's my point here?
Let's go back over.
So falling wedge pattern.
We broke the bear market trend line.
We broke the 200-day moving average.
Check out the trend of the RSI.
We broke the trend of the RSI.
Doesn't mean we can't come back down below.
And if you go back over here, we broke it and we came in, we fluctuated.
It's not about staying above the trend line now.
Now it's just we broke the trend.
A new trend of RSI is going to develop.
that's what I've seen happen here as well.
So while I'm not a four-year cycle guy, I do still think there are rhyming things about markets.
I still think that certain price action movements play out.
We put in a higher high on Bitcoin.
I think we're looking for a higher low.
And I also, if you go back to January, or what's the exact date there?
If you go back to early 2023, March, March of 2023, Bitcoin corrected here roughly 21%.
to come back down and hit that 200-day moving average.
If anyone remembers this time, it wasn't like the mood was, oh, great.
Guys, we're in a bull market.
Don't worry.
It's just a 20% correction.
No, it's not a big deal.
Just buy the 200.
That was not the attitude.
The attitude was, there we go.
See, bull market's not here.
Nope, nevermind.
Nope.
Remember those people calling for $10,000, $8,000?
Yeah, they were right.
They were right.
Here we go.
We're going down.
It was a depression fest back in March of 2023 as well until it wasn't, right?
And so my point here is even people saying, but Tim, this time's different.
It's not different.
We're going through the exact same emotional roller coaster.
We're going through all the same things.
And again, think of all the stories that have developed in the last six, seven weeks to crush the markets.
And yet, as we're sitting here doing this video, we are still sitting right upon the 200-day moving average.
So until we lose that, there's still a lot of similarities between what we went through last cycle in this one.
Tim, I think that's really helpful context.
This has all been really helpful for me.
I want to ask a final question here just around AI and the broader markets, because as you've said, you still think that Tau is sort of the king of the AI cryptos, and you can just ban on why if you want.
But I think a lot of people are seeing a lot of volatility.
in AI stocks, in the equities markets, the NASDAQ, the KOSPI, just like global equity markets have been very volatile and seen a lot of selling pressure, especially recently with some of these headlines as well.
So this is not a unique thing to crypto.
And I'm curious your thoughts on how crypto performs in that environment.
Do we need to see the AI bull market in stocks pick back up and recover for crypto to accelerate?
Or do you think that now that that trade has cooled off, maybe there's a rotation into crypto?
What's your mindset on that?
And just what's your outlook there?
Let me start by saying I don't think that the AI bubble is a thing.
Like when people say the AI bubble is going to pop, they always compare it to the dot-com bubble.
And I don't think that that's a good comparison.
That would be like me comparing the technology of a computer to the technology of a bed pillow, right?
The dot-com bubble effectively was just people buying, using it.
Oh, this is a cool thing.
You can own domains on the internet and do.
Okay, cool.
Like that's cool, right?
But people got a little bit too excited.
They were just buying.
They're buying things out the wazoo that just.
They overinflated the market and said, oh, this is terrible.
I appreciate and agree with the statement that AI, more money has probably been invested to AI than its profitability.
Like that's, I don't think that's an arguable statement.
More money has been invested than it's produced.
But are we kidding ourselves?
AI is the future.
It's the future of how money is going to be operating.
It's the future of companies are operate.
You know, I tend to kind of stay in line with the Elon Musk way of thinking is, is the future is going to really.
money's not going to become as important.
I think that people working crazy jobs is going to be dwindled.
I think a lot of people are going to entertainment to kind of do things to, I don't think it's gonna be hard to feed your family because I think money's going to become easier to get ahold of, but I also think it's going to allow people to choose more exciting career paths than, you know, people have to go dig ditches and people who have to just sit here and enter, you know, a human just flipping a burger.
We can create a robot to do that, but it's not going to be hard to do.
And it's going to make things cheaper and more affordable.
And there's some scary things to that as well.
I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole.
My overall point, though, is, again, saying the AI bubble is going to mimic the dot-com bubble is like comparing the technology of a computer to a pillow.
And so I'll start there.
I'm not a big fan of the AI bubble narrative that AI is about to crash and burn and die.
That being said, could we see a period of time where AI, stays stale and the market stays stale and slowly accumulate while maybe a cryptocurrency market blows up.
I think that's definitely a thing that can happen.
I'm not guaranteeing it's going to happen.
We can see both rally up together, but we just watched a whole year of AI stocks climbing while crypto was falling.
So why couldn't we see a year of maybe stagnant AI?
price action as things start to balance the scales a little bit more while crypto, again, the future of how money is going to be transacted, takes a nice front run here in 2027.
Do I have a crystal ball?
No, but that's just how my feeling is on it.
I think anyone's bearish on crypto and AI, you're falling into the trap the composite man wants you to be in and you're not fully appreciating that we are on the front lines of a technological advancement, the world.
has not ever seen before.
Like there's been a lot of technological advancements in humankind, but I think the movement into AI and crypto, I think people are very underestimating how big of a deal this is for global economy, global usage, global money.
It's massive.
I appreciate that outlook.
I want to ask you to look into your crystal ball and tell us what's going to happen between now and the end of the year on Bitcoin, just in your estimation from where we're sitting right now.
Do you have a target in mind?
Do you have like an expectation here?
Do you think we just keep chopping to the end of the year?
Do you think we are going to see sort of a Santa rally?
What do you think happens between now and 2027?
I think volatility.
You know, we did a show a couple of weeks ago, myself, my.
My two guys I do show with Crux and Shrum, we gave our takes on when we thought they could potentially hit new all time highs.
I came up with mine before and I thought I was going to be the most aggressive one.
I said January 20th.
That's probably not going to happen.
They were both before me.
But one of the reasons why is because I think we're kind of hanging in balance right now on what's going to happen with the war in Iran.
We have some economic stuff over top of us that is preventing the big, big money from institutions from going all in because they just want to make sure everything plays out.
The Fed, we just saw even this morning that there's a hot CPI print month over month, which just led to the highest prediction we've ever seen for a rate hike for December.
I think 80 something percent, 82, 83 percent.
It looks like a rate hike is going to come in December.
The minute the war with Iran officially ends.
We're already watching oil prices begin to slowly drop right now.
I think oil prices start to plummet.
When oil prices plummet, if you looked at recent inflation data, like there was one about a month and a half ago, that if you had removed the price of gas or energy and you looked at every other metric that had nothing to do with it, The inflation rates were all either below or around 2%, but energy was like 10%.
Transportation was like 7% or 8%.
So it's one of those things like right now, our inflation data is not good.
The US dollar is being inflated, but it's so weighted by the extreme, the higher cost of energy due to.
higher oil prices from the Iran war.
The minute that stuff ends, uncertainty leaves and certainty comes back in the markets.
Oil prices drops.
Things start flowing.
I understand from a technical standpoint that we're going to have to get some more manufacturing companies up and running.
It's going to take a little bit.
But the point is, there's a level of oil price that's elevated because of uncertainty.
The minute the war is over, that uncertainty leaves and that gap gets filled.
And then as more and more oil is produced and refined and starts getting.
transferred, then we drop even more and we will see the Fed be allowed to stop raising rates and they'll start having conversations once again about cutting rates.
And I'm curious, I'm very curious when energy costs come back down, how quickly can we hit that 2% goal that the Fed is targeting with inflation?
I think there's a world in which it's a lot faster than some people think.
Well, that would be very bullish.
Tim, I really appreciate you coming on the show.
I think this has been a really great episode and you have a lot of experience and wisdom with technical analysis, but also with just crypto markets in general.
So I know our audience is really going to appreciate this.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Yeah, I mean, there's two places.
Obviously, every single day we're either live or we're posting a video on YouTube.
Tim Warren Trades, at Tim Warren Trades there.
On X, same thing.
We're posting every big story that I think affects portfolios.
That's my thing.
And I tell people all the time, listen, if you want to follow what I'm doing, that's great.
If you like what I'm buying or what I'm selling or what I'm trading, that's great.
I'm not here to be your financial advisor.
I'm here telling you what I think about the markets, how I break down news, how I look at charts.
I want everyone to learn for themselves.
I want people to learn how to do this for themselves.
Six years ago, some of you guys know my story.
Some of you don't.
Six years ago, I was working.
a paycheck to paycheck job, barely making sure I got rent and food covered.
If you had told me, Tim, what's your retirement plan?
I would have said to have a lot of children and try to put them in the NFL to make sure my wife and I eat in our old age.
There was no planning whatsoever.
I was a hard worker, but I had no...
My future didn't look good.
And discovering the art of trading and investing and learning how to take risk properly and how to break down markets, it's changed my life, my wife's life, my children's life.
And I think that's possible for everybody out there.
So that's what I'm about is, hey, follow my journey.
If you like what I'm saying, great.
If you don't like what I'm saying, okay, learn.
Learn from both my successes and my failures so you can do this all for yourself.
I know it's possible because I did it so you can as well.
Tim Warren of Tim Warren Trades.
Thank you so much for being on Milko Crypto.
I hope we can have you back again soon.
And I hope you still have your beard when we catch up next time.
I hope so, too.
All right, sir.
Thank you for joining us.
Thank you all for being here.
I hope you all learned something today.
So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish.
And we will see you all on the next episode of Milko Crypto.
Thank you for being here, everyone.
Bye.
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