# Bitcoin Macro Strategy and Liquidity Shifts

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-10-26

## Transcript

We could go further to the downside than most people expect.
We could also go further to the upside than most people expect, and we could do both.
And it still wouldn't surprise me either way.
What's up, everybody?
It's LGD said here and welcome to the Milk Grote Show, the daily crypto show that was told October was a historically green month.
But these are unprecedented historical times, and neither of the last two Octobers have been historically green.
What the hell is going on?
Today is October 26, 2026.
Today, we have a few things to talk about, and I don't want the show to be repetitive because every time John and I do an episode on Mondays, It feels like for eight months now we've been talking about the same things.
But today, I swear, we have some new topics.
Many people have been saying that we need a big money print for Bitcoin to finally rip back to all-time highs, which would be like 80% up from here.
We're going to ask John today.
Is that true?
And also, does he believe his buddy Ben Cowan that we are going to go back to the bull market support ban?
And also, what the hell is the bull market support ban?
Aren't we already in a bull market?
We're going to ask him about that.
And then I'm going to ask him some superstitious stuff like when CZ tweets, does it mean we're going to go up or down?
Does he know things that we don't?
All these questions and more in today's episode of Milk Road Crypto.
And also, I want to remind you that today's podcast is free and that it wouldn't be possible without our partners at Alumni Ventures giving accredited investors.
investors access to private market investment opportunities alongside leading VC firms.
And Nexo, the digital asset platform, lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place.
Keep an ear out for more information about both of those wonderful partners in today's show.
Good morning, John.
Hi, LG.
I'm excited to talk to you again.
Oh, I love talking to you.
Listen, it's a privilege to do these shows with you.
It's a privilege to have so many people tune in.
So for people that listen, people that watch, thank you in advance for supporting our show.
And also thank you again, like I said, to our sponsors, because it is it is it is fun to do this and talk about our magical Internet coins.
At least I get to do it once a week with you and you get to do it every day.
So really, you're the special one.
John, you are celebrating this weekend.
despite things looking red things being unhappy you were you were kind of like celebrating in milk road uh in our discord both like kind of in the pro community and also internally with the other analysts like behind closed doors you were like haha listen guys you guys are scared about your elon's warning about neo clouds you think new clouds are done and they're stupid but like listen bro bitcoin is holding 80k ish crypto is winning tell me more about that sentiment as uh as the ai trade looks a little shaky yeah so look i think it's hard to be celebrating anything right now in the markets but i am encouraged to see bitcoin continuing to hold the range that it's been in as we talked about for a while this is not a super exciting time for bitcoin at the moment because it is just ranging um but it's holding the range and holding it well i think at a time of recording we have finally lost 81k but we're holding on to 80k um and you know look you know you mentioned in the intro ben cowan and others have been calling for bitcoin to go touch its 50-week moving average i think that may happen.
You could see support at around $78K.
We could go down to $76K or wherever that simple moving average is right now, the 50 week is.
But that would be the bull market support band.
I could see Bitcoin going to retest that.
But that's really only a couple thousand dollars lower than where we are now.
And it still would keep us within the range that we've been in since we had that huge short squeeze in August.
I think if we convincingly lose the $75,500 level on Bitcoin, which is kind of like what I've been watching, then maybe the bears are back in control.
But yeah, look, Ben's a great analyst.
This is a great chart.
It kind of shows where you could be looking to see some support come in on Bitcoin.
I don't think that's a crazy idea, but it's it's you know, it would still be Bitcoin continuing to hold the range that it's in.
And so until something happens, it's kind of like, yeah, we're not breaking out to new highs here.
But the strength from Bitcoin has been really encouraging relative to the rest of the risk asset markets, which are really struggling right now.
Would you call this a failed rally if we went back down to that?
Because we rally like honestly, we had that day.
I don't remember what it was, maybe a month ago now.
We went to like 87K.
We're like, OK, here we go.
Let's go for a rip.
Maybe there'll be a little pullback, but it's all good.
Like 90K, 100K in sight.
And it's been four weeks, three, four weeks in the red ever since that high.
I wouldn't call it a failed rally unless we basically went back and tested the lows in the 60K, basically.
Then I think you could call it a failed rally.
But to me, this just looks like a retest of a breakout.
It looks like the rally has been successful.
It looks like the rally has been accepted.
And this, to me right now, just looks like a retest of the bull market support band or the bear market resistance band, whichever way you want to call it.
But that happens sometimes.
When you're flipping from a bear market to a bull market, it's not like a...
like flipping a light switch, right?
Like the market has false starts.
It makes up its mind.
It takes a while.
It takes months to play out.
And for that sentiment and that market regime to finally turn and change, it's like steering an aircraft carrier, right?
So I think that this is not by any means a failed rally or a failed breakout here.
It looks like we're just coming in for a retest.
And so, you know, look, this is what Kyle and I have been talking about a lot is the real opportunity here is to maybe get.
really good positioning on some altcoins that you like for the coming bull market or the coming cycle when bitcoin goes down and does this retest or as it does it now um but you know look it's it's been a long time we haven't seen a lot of like selling or like enthusiasm to get out of bitcoin here um and so i don't really expect everybody to like panic dump their bags and for us to puke another 20 grand i think the more likely scenario here is a bump and run a retest and then a continuation of the new bull market I just want to pause for a quick second to remind you all that the crypto bull market is back.
I have been deploying capital into altcoins that I think are going to do very well, this bull market.
Some of them are already up over 2x from where I entered.
So if you want to see what's in my portfolio, what's on my watch list, and have access to me in Discord to ask questions 24 hours a day, join Milkroad Pro now.
The link is in the description.
It's just a dollar.
I'll see you there.
When you talk about positioning and alts, and again, if people want to see what John is holding, John, you did empty your...
uh truck of cash that you've been hoarding uh a few weeks back into a lot of all so you guys can check that out in milk road pro the links below pay a dollar just to see it sneak peek um or listen to after hours which we're not doing today john usually john and i do an after hours but uh we now have a crypto roll-up episode on thursdays where John is joined by our other analysts, Martin and Kyle, to discuss some of those.
And I'm assuming that that conversation is what you're alluding to.
John, when you say a good opportunity for alts, do you, historically, when we see, like, alts tend to exaggerate the moves of the majors, right?
That it's like, well, crypto or Bitcoin goes down, you know, like we're seeing here below 80K.
It's down from 84 the other day to 79.
So it's down whatever, 7 or 8%.
You see some alts go down.
20 percent 30 percent and then similar in reverse right like this rally from mid-august here to late september you saw all 5x right um is that do you expect that kind of uh continued volatility uh in the coming weeks even if this if this scenario plays out like if we go down to this ben cowan line of 75k let's say are we getting a uni at four or five dollars are we getting uh uh i don't know what it's another a near or a hype hyper liquid at 50.
you know what i mean are we going to see exaggerated moves there again i don't know but the expectation would be yes right like if you're seeing volatility from bitcoin the expectation is you would see amplified volatility from other things in the space other other smaller cap altcoins in the space um so but like see that's a big risk to me and this is why i'm you know, pretty allocated into the market here, to put it mildly, is that I don't know if Bitcoin is going to get supported at 80K and hold it because it is holding on to it right now.
Like, I don't know where we'll be by the time we finish this episode, but, you know, who knows?
Like, we got a few things to look forward to this week.
We could get...
So look, there's a lot of major companies, Amazon, Alphabet, several others, SK Hynix that are reporting earnings this week.
If that's really encouraging to the market, that could bring some reversion of the bulls coming back in here.
The Fed FOMC meeting is this week.
If they hold rates and Kevin Warsh comes out and...
kind of like dovishly says, hey, don't worry about December.
We got it.
It'll be fine.
Whatever he says and that calms the markets.
That could bring some sentiment here.
So you could get a recovery.
So you might be sitting waiting for Bitcoin to make a new low or to break down and never really get that entry in alts here.
And look, I just I don't think you're going to get back to the summer lows that we saw on altcoins.
So to me, it just makes more sense to be positioned and patient while all this works itself out because you can't really tell what's going to happen here.
I think that's an important thing to stress, right?
Nobody, we're kind of off the map in many ways from a macro perspective, from a market's perspective, we've got a generational event with the artificial intelligence build out happening in the markets right now.
A lot of things are different about this market environment that we're in and nobody is super confident about a lot of these things.
We don't know if we're going to have.
you know, a Senate that's controlled by Democrats or Republicans.
We don't know what that implies for markets.
We don't know if there's going to be a lot of AI or anti-AI legislation that comes through.
We just don't know, right?
So what I'm saying here is that it seems to me like the best play for me is to take a long view of this and get positioned and not try to get cute about, you know, hoping to get another $4 entry on Uniswap, just like be positioned and be patient because that's the direction of travel we're going here.
But yeah, there's just a lot of things here that...
we could get a mean reversion, we could bounce, we could, you know, et cetera.
And, you know, trying to predict where and when and how all these lows are going to come in and like getting cute about getting your position on.
I think it's a great way to miss the market.
So just to recap what that Fed decision looks like for this week, it's a 92% chance on Pauly market of no change.
And then for December, for the next meeting in December, we're looking at a 76% chance on Pauly market of a 25 point increase.
So definitely the market, I would say market, it was fair to say market is pricing that in right now as well, because this has been this way since the last increase, right?
Since before the last increase, the market has started to predict.
two increases this year and we had one at the last meeting and and looks like they're they're the market is thinking there'll be one more yes that's exactly what i would interpret this to me i think that the the market does not expect worse or the fed to hike rates right before the u.s midterm elections but they do expect them to come back in december and then hike rates um because they they think that the you know r star the neutral rate is higher than where we are But by the time we get to December, data could come in that looks different.
The thing that's kind of throwing all of this off is oil and the skyrocketing price of energy and oil derivatives like diesel and gasoline.
That's trickling through to a lot of things in the economy that's pushing inflation higher.
And I think you can see a lot of, let's say, not energy-related components also moving higher because energy is an input cost on a lot of these things.
inflation is going up.
This is something I'm watching this week as well.
After the Fed's FOMC meeting, we're going to get another inflation print.
I think it's CPI or PPI.
I can't remember which one, but there's another print that comes out shortly afterwards on inflation.
And whatever that is, is going to be something to watch closely because we've seen two consecutive inflation prints that have been hot, let's say.
Not blowout hot, but...
heating up and so i think the market is watching that if we see a third consecutive one that's like tilting in the direction of rising inflation the market is going to really expect and kind of demand a rate hike in in december and then you're in a situation where you're fighting the fed on on risk assets and that can present an uh like a headwind Adding into all of this, it looks like Anthropic wants to do a $2 trillion or somewhere around $2 trillion IPO in the middle of November.
So there's just a lot happening in capital markets right now and a lot of things that are going to pull capital in a lot of different directions here.
I know that's kind of like a tangle of nonsense that's hard to suss out, but that's kind of what I'm saying right now is that there's a lot of headwinds, a lot of uncertainty, a lot of demands for capital in the markets.
It's difficult to predict how all of this shakes out or which way the market zigs and zags as all these things play out.
So for me right now, I'm really encouraged by the strength in Bitcoin.
I don't think there's a lot of leverage that's being unwound from the digital asset space right now.
Obviously, some people are getting a little bit more risk-off, so some capital has come out recently, but it's not like a mass selling.
And it does seem to me like the bottom for Bitcoin is behind us.
And the likelihood here is that however long this takes to resolve, these macro headwinds do resolve and do result in a higher price appreciation for Bitcoin and for the altcoin space.
So that's kind of what I'm positioned for, and I'm just trying to be patient while the rest of this stuff plays out.
You mentioned you fielded a lot of questions last night from our Millpro Pro community.
which is, you know, you're very responsive, which is fantastic.
And thank you to people in pro who do submit questions, I tag you late at night with those questions.
And you post them kind of on our on our on our pro platform on our website.
And in there, I believe you mentioned that and you just kind of alluded to that now that there's like six trillion dollars or something like that sitting in money market funds.
What what is that money?
And is that something you expect some of it to move into?
risk assets while it's sitting idle, like because it's sitting idle right now.
And and what would it take for that to move into crypto, which is still we have to remember, it's still it's still very much a risk asset, right?
You have to remember, like people, we see this as like our investment, we're going to retire on this.
But a lot of other people, people, a lot of money are like, this is a risky thing, man.
We need good risky conditions to invest in it.
So this is something I think is a really underappreciated reality for the digital asset space, which is that it is still a very, very small.
asset class relatively speaking i think we're somewhere around between like two and a half and three trillion dollars in that ballpark right now all in like bitcoin and everything else um and you know as you said like i pointed this out the money market funds right now it's just like people sitting in cash basically um is over six trillion dollars uh just by itself um the the bond markets several hundred trillion dollars the equities markets are several hundred trillion dollars um so and then real estate is also several hundred trillion dollars so Really, what I'm pointing to there is like somebody was basically asking the question like, hey, is Bitcoin going to move higher?
Can it move higher?
Can it enter a new bull market without a big print?
In other words, another massive liquidity injection like we saw in 2008 or like we saw with COVID and the huge stimulus that happened then.
And it was basically saying like, yes, that can still happen without a big print.
Like obviously, if the government did dump a huge amount of capital and liquidity into the market, that would move Bitcoin and be bullish for risk assets.
But it could also happen just by getting some of this capital off the sidelines.
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean it goes directly to Bitcoin.
But let's say the interest rates on long-term government debt starts to get to a certain level that it starts to become attractive enough to that capital that it moves off the sidelines and becomes another bidder for U.S.
government bonds.
That's what I think Besant is kind of playing for here.
Like the big buyer, marginal buyer of U.S.
Treasuries, a lot of people don't know this, but it's mostly been hedge funds doing the basis trade.
And I think he's trying to find a price level where...
He can get other buyers interested in deploying capital into those markets and supporting that so he doesn't have to buy his own bonds.
And so he's shortening duration on these things and going through a lot of machinations to try to engineer the outstanding debt, the bond market, to a level where capital will start to come in and support that.
And the risk-reward there gets attractive.
But if that starts to happen, right, that trickles down, right?
Because if you get more support for the bond market, you get more support for other assets, you have increased liquidity, more capital in the system, and that trickles down to risk assets and things like Bitcoin.
So there are ways that that could happen without the government doing a big print.
But the thing I've always liked about Bitcoin is that it's kind of like a heads I win, tails you lose asset in the sense that if things are going well in the risk asset markets and people are seeking risk, Bitcoin tends to perform very well in that environment if we have kind of a blow up or a crash and the government has to step in and print a whole bunch, which very rarely happens.
I think people talk about this a lot in crypto because it's like, you know, a sexy headline, but that's only happened like a couple of times in the last like 30 years.
It's not like something you should plan for necessarily.
But if we do have a big liquidity injection and intervention, Bitcoin tends to do well in that environment because again, there's a huge flood of capital that comes in and people start to seek additional risk.
The other thing is that it doesn't have to come.
This liquidity injection doesn't have to come from central banks.
In other words, the current strategy of the Trump administration has been to deregulate and change requirements for commercial banking to stimulate lending from commercial banking and bring, I think now close to around a trillion dollars of capital into the markets that way, and there's still room to run there theoretically.
So there's just a lot of other places it come from.
It doesn't have to go up because of a big print.
The final thing I'll say on this is just that – and this is an important thing too, which gets overlooked a lot.
There are a lot of things that are fundamentally bullish about crypto and digital assets that are attracting capital from investors.
The biggest one I think right now is agentic finance and tokenization.
I'd say tokenization and then agentic finance separately, but tokenization, agentic finance is still on the horizon.
Tokenization is happening now and in a big way and across Wall Street.
There's a lot of capital products and services that are moving on chain that are coming out with tokenized products, and that's starting to get the first signs of adoption and real growth and demand.
And then I think also the regulatory backdrop has really improved the sec and the cfdc have given an innovation exemption to encourage pioneering activity in the digital asset space so all this is like a fundamentally bullish thing for digital assets um and then you know we're coming out of a nine month bear market here and starting to recover and people i think relatively are starting to understand like hey this entire asset class is undervalued and so capital is coming back here so there's a lot of things that could happen that could be bullish for crypto that don't involve the government just dumping six trillion dollars into the market overnight um But yeah, it's just, heads I win, tails you lose.
And I think either way, Bitcoin's gonna come out ahead.
You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.
You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else.
And if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.
That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.
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So if you need liquidity, but you don't want to give up your position, or you're already holding crypto and you want to be able to do more with it, I think Nexo is worth your time.
We love working with them.
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To illustrate how extreme John wanted us to view this six trillion dollar amount you did say in your pro message that this is you said this in the sentence after that if we go to 150k by christmas you would take profits is that it was that there's no way that's realistic at this point man it's it's literally that's less than two months you think that you you think there's what's the possibility crypto let's just call it doubles that bitcoin would double between now and then So the reason I said that was precisely because I was like, hey, this would be crazy price action that I wouldn't expect.
But, you know, the person was basically asking, like, if we're in a mid cycle correction.
what does that mean?
If we're starting a new cycle, what does that mean?
And where would you take profits and how would you know and stuff?
And my answer to that is like, I still think we need a little bit more information from the market here, which is just time and price action to confirm that.
But like, look, if we do have like a rip roaring recovery out of this and see a new all time high all of a sudden before the end of the year.
Yeah, maybe it was a mid cycle correction and maybe that's a blow off top and maybe we're done.
um here it is anyway simple answer is let's see what happens if bitcoin shoots to 150k before santa claus gets here maybe maybe sell maybe maybe sell i like that not even like all definitely self we we double it you know double this this two trillion dollar asset in two months uh no i think about it i think about it man i love that that is so hilarious uh what's the what are the chances we go down because you know one thing that stuck out to me that um ben count did say months ago, I think at this point was that and he was he was still talking about four year cycle, but that typically the the low and this happened last time, the low of the four year cycle has come right after the midterms.
And he pointed to that happening last time and last time, granted, there were non, you know, FTX was collapsing.
You know, there's a bunch of there was other stuff happening.
Maybe there'll be other collapses this time.
I don't know.
These things these things can happen quickly when they do happen.
But what are the chances of that happening?
Right.
And not and let's say at this point, like even like what's what's more like unlikely going below 57K before Christmas or going to 150K before Christmas.
Both seem kind of impossible at this point.
But what are the chances that we would fall back into that 60K range, let's say?
between now and christmas post midterms i think that there are look i i've been saying this all year but conviction lies in elevated volatility i don't think that it's a mutually exclusive thing i think we can go down and then we can go up and we can like go up do both more of both than most people expect basically right like so we could go further to the downside than most people expect we could also go further the upside than most people expect and we could do both and it still wouldn't surprise me either way that's the thing i think is um so difficult about these markets is the volatility is increasing because the velocity of money the the friction is coming off of trading more capital is coming to the markets more access to leverage and cross margin leverage is accelerating globally this is not just a us problem um obviously like there's been a lot of there's Circuit breakers have been hit in Brazil.
The Korean market has been extremely volatile.
Indonesia, Turkey, you can go down the list.
There has been a lot of volatility in asset markets this year.
I think that just continues.
Your question is a good one.
I don't know what's going to happen.
Neither has been any of us.
We're just trying to entertain and stay open to what could possibly happen.
I think that the idea of a new low after midterms...
It could play out that way.
I don't know exactly what's going to happen.
It's going to depend on how things shape up because after the midterms, I think Trump is going to take a new look at the table with the Iran situation and something will happen.
I don't know if it'll be a deal.
I don't know if it'll be more conflict.
I don't know, but I do expect there to be new news on that front.
And then I also think that there's going to be a huge IPO in the middle of the month.
I don't think it'll be quite as big of an impact as SpaceX had just because SpaceX was like, And I don't know if this is true of Anthropic or not, but SpaceX was like deliberately fast-tracked into a lot of these indices and like rushed into market in a lot of ways.
And like they rolled out like a really special red carpet for that asset.
But in any event, like there's just a lot of big things that are going to move in the markets here.
I think that what's happening here is that because there's so much, maybe, I don't know, but maybe this is just me reading this this way, but this is what I think is happening.
I think a lot of people are looking at what's happening with bond markets and seeing rising yields and interpreting it as people saying that they don't.
think that the governments are solvent and that they don't think that they can pay their debts and et cetera.
And maybe there is some of that happening, you know, like with France or whatever, but I don't think that's what's happening with the U S markets.
I think really what's happening is that some of that capital is coming off of the sidelines.
Some of that capital is saying, Hey, I want exposure to AI, to the stock, to, to, to risk equity, equities, um, risk assets and, and AI equities.
And so it's being deployed.
And so the government is having to.
have more and more attractive yields to continue to get capital to come into the bond market because there's so much demand from capital for other kinds of assets that are related to this huge bull market and AI that we're seeing.
So I don't think that's bearish necessarily, but that's why the government is having to raise their interest rates because they have to pay more in order to get that capital to come back.
But as these interest rates go up too, the- interest rate payments that the government has to make on their own outstanding debt also goes up and that's inflationary and that's stimulative and that's like dumping money into the the economy and that's what beset is doing by shortening the duration of the outstanding debt he's he's effectively doing money printing he's doing a liquidity injection there so all of this is like again it comes back to the same thing for me if if you if you were trying to attract capital in these markets when there's so many things that are screaming for money It's stiff competition, but all of it demands more liquidity.
The liquidity will come and that's broadly simulative for Bitcoin and digital assets.
So I don't know, it's just like it's going to be a bumpy road.
There's going to be a lot of volatility.
I don't know if we'll see the 60s.
I don't expect that, but we could see 60K, we could see 100K, we could see both of them before the end of the year.
And I would still be like, yeah, OK, yeah, I can see that.
It makes sense.
It feels like the worst case scenario is just to stay in this range the whole time.
I feel like that's the part that drives you nuts and makes you do insane shit.
That's what makes that's what makes people go crazy and do like irrational shit where they've got their cash ready if it goes down or whatever, and then they just do something silly with it or they sell too much or whatever is when you just stay in ranges for too long, man, like that range from the bear market, man, like from whenever whenever we dipped down to.
I think it was like late June, like the summer range was tough and the range before that was hard.
And now we might just have like a Q4 range that we stay in, right?
It's like, I think most people would almost prefer the market make a decision, at least on crypto to 60K or a hundred K before Christmas, then to stay between 79 and 85, right?
Like that's actually worse for psychologically, let's say.
Yeah, it's really tough.
And, you know, I think the two things I'll say is that like, like I've been saying, like if risk assets are doing well, Bitcoin does well.
If everything blows up and the government has to step in, Bitcoin does well.
The max pain for Bitcoin is the doldrums when we're in kind of this like, eh, it's not bad, it's not good, it's kind of like...
And we just range.
And yes, exactly.
And I agree with you, that tests investors' patience, it tests their conviction, it tests their thesis, and it gives them time to get a wandering eye about other things and overtrade their book and get out of position.
This is true of...
um you know asset markets like the equities markets and of bitcoin but there are certain days of the year where the asset does pick a direction where it does make a big move one way or the other and if you're out of position when that happens you miss the bulk of the the returns on that asset and so that's sort of the risk reward and the opportunity costs of of allocating your capital is you know, staying patient through this and knowing that eventually there'll be a resolution to the upside or hoping that eventually there'll be a resolution to the upside.
But in the meantime, it's, it's a, it's a grind and it's several months of, of chop and uncertainty.
And then, you know, Suddenly something happens.
OK, let's let's we're doing a bit of a short show today because you have Lynn Alden coming on the show and you've got to go interview her shortly.
So we are.
This is a bit of a shorter show than usual, and we'll do a little preview on that in a second.
But I want to take the last few minutes that we have to talk about today's price action to look to some of our favorite male astrology, which is just predicting things that arbitrarily predict price, not real things like what you're discussing, which, you know, this is now we're in the degen zone of like, OK, OK, these are the the singles.
look for, which is this guy I followed pulled up these CZ tweets.
CZ, the head of Binance, who was famously banned and then pardoned by Trump, has tweeted ominous things in recent months.
So back on August 19th, he said, if you want the two years...
This tweet first week doesn't make any sense.
Anyways, he just said, you know, buy bottoms on Bitcoin and then Bitcoin went up like crazy from 64 to like 80 and then back on.
whatever day this was sometime in September before that next September rally.
He said every dip is a buying opportunity.
Then then we had a huge rally again.
And then just two days ago saying Bitcoin is dead was said by many, many times before.
Those were also the best times to buy Bitcoin.
So what this person is pointing out is that usually when this dude is saying like, hey, buy the dips, like, listen, when it's low, you got to buy it.
That's usually that precedes a rally.
And they're saying that it's like he's saying that on purpose because he knows a rally is coming.
This is also one of the people that is pointed to as having a lot of influence on the markets, let's say, whether you buy into that or not.
John, any weight to things like this?
Well, I think what he's saying there is if you want the you two years later to appreciate what you did today.
Oh, I get it.
So what he's saying is if you want future you to be like, wow, I was a really smart me two years ago, right?
You know, the only way to get there is to sit in their hands.
I used to say.
The best trade you can make in financial markets is to buy Bitcoin four years ago.
And the only way to do that is to sit on your hands for four years.
It's much easier said than done.
And it's not something that everybody can just do.
And it's not because of like a willpower thing necessarily, but four years is a long time to be able to protect an investment and not have to move that capital or get it out of the markets.
And you have to go through a lot mentally and financially to be able to make that happen.
I don't know how to anticipate what's going to happen in response to CZ's tweets or if that's all just coincidence.
I don't have any comment on that.
But I do think in general, the oversold price action we've seen in crypto and digital assets over the summer has passed.
The valuations have reverted to the mean.
That's all that we've really seen happen here.
Again, we haven't seen wild breakout overvaluations on crypto and digital assets overall.
We've just seen a mean reversion.
And I think that...
Crypto is sort of like catching its breath here while all these macro headwinds are still mounting and playing out.
Eventually, I do think this resolves.
I don't think it's permanent.
I think it's temporary.
And I think that there's a lot more in the camp of the bulls and the bull market continuing than there is in the camp of this being a top and us breaking down and us like dropping to, you know, 40K or, you know, Goblin Town basically.
So in that sense, I'm content to be patient here.
I'm content to wait and watch while this ranging price action continues.
And ultimately, I do think we're going to see a resolution to the upside and a lot of this clear up.
So I'm excited to talk to Lynn Alden after this.
And that episode, I think, will be out tomorrow.
But I'm trying to LG.
This is something I want to say because I've been trying for a long time to try to stay current of what's going on in the market.
I've done a lot of episodes recently on some altcoin projects that have been making a lot of noise and getting attention.
We did episodes on Sky, on Arrow, on Layer Zero, on a lot of other ones, and Ethereum overall as an ecosystem.
The next few weeks, I'm going to try to bring more guests on the channel to talk about things from the macro perspective because that's, I think, the big story right now in crypto is the in all markets really is just the macro landscape here.
Lynn's one of the best people to talk to about that specifically for Bitcoin and crypto.
So, yeah, I'm excited to talk to her and to these other macro experts and try to like integrate that more into the conversation here on Milk Road because I think that's a big part of what's going to drive what happens in Q4.
So what you said, what CZ said, you're quote tweeting him yourself.
the best favor you can do to yourself is buy Bitcoin four years ago.
What do you think the price was four years ago today?
Yeah.
All right.
All right.
No, no, no.
Just give me an estimate.
No, no.
What do you think it was?
No, no, no.
That's a good thing.
It backs up what you're saying.
But what do you think it was?
Just give me a random number that you think it would have been.
We know ETH would have been the same number as today, but Bitcoin wasn't.
ETH was the same number, but not Bitcoin.
Where were we?
I don't know.
30K?
I can't remember where we were.
Four years ago, it was 20,000.
The high on October 26, 2022 was 20,938 and the low was 20,076.
Because that was when we were just starting to come off the bottom and we did some of those stair steps up and stair steps down.
There were a couple of times where people were like, ah, it's a failed rally.
We're never going to make it.
I think it's something like that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And so you would be up 400% since then.
I am up 400% because I was buying then.
So are you saying?
that in four years will be up 400% from today, which would put us, how much, come on, do your math, man, 320 grand for Bitcoin.
Or is that what you're suggesting?
No, I am not suggesting.
Thank you for putting words in my mouth, Archie.
I would like to vomit them back out, though.
No, okay, we're laughing, we're joking about this, but I do think this is important to understand.
people need to realize this the the investment on bitcoin is not just um an investment in the adoption of bitcoin or digital assets it's also a short on the us dollar that's the best trade you can make in markets if i was going to say one one trade i could make it would be shorting the us dollar in value that's like the the most like You know, water is going to flow downhill.
The sun is going to come up in the morning and time is going to keep flowing forward.
That's the best trade in markets.
The reason why I like Bitcoin is it's the cleanest articulation of that thesis.
It's digital scarcity.
It's not dependent on, you know, gold being mined or central banks printing.
Well, it is kind of, but the point is that it's the best way to protect your capital against the devaluation of currency and the devaluation of the currency, in my view, is the best trade in financial markets.
So that's something to not lose sight of here.
So I don't know how fast that accelerates.
I don't know how quickly or in what time, you know, what path that value in terms of dollars accumulates to Bitcoin.
But I do think that Bitcoin remains the cleanest articulation of that thesis and remains, for that reason, one of the best trades in financial markets.
So we will see if that continues to hold, but still bullish.
Love it.
John, best of luck in the interview with Lynn Alden.
We will check that out tomorrow.
So make sure you guys like and subscribe if you want to make sure you catch that interview.
And otherwise, if you do want to see John's portfolio, it's on Milk Road Pro for just a dollar.
We have some new interesting features coming very soon to our website as well, which we'll talk about later in the week.
Otherwise, John, always a pleasure, sir.
Thank you, LG.
It was a lot of fun.
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