# Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmation and Strategic Entry Points

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-10-07

## Transcript

I think Bitcoin has re-entered a new bull market environment, and I will continue to pound the table on that so long as Bitcoin stays above.
One year ago this week, Bitcoin hit its all-time high.
Since then, we have had a full bear market, and now it looks like Bitcoin is trying to confirm the start of a new bull market.
But is this a breakout or a retest, or are we about to fall back into bear market territory?
And what do investors need to know about all this?
Hello and welcome to Milk Road Crypto, the show that knows that Bitcoin is just retesting its breakout, but everyone...
Everyone is still traumatized from the bear market and the timeline is panicking.
I'm your host, John Gillen.
Today is Wednesday, October 7th.
And today we are joined by the chart master himself, one of my favorite guests, Caleb Franzen.
Caleb is the founder of Cubic Analytics.
He called this bear market when Bitcoin slipped below 97K.
He is now flip bullish.
He's here to explain what is going on and give us a whole bunch of alpha.
Caleb is one of the smartest analysts in the business.
If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.
Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it.
As a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn, and borrow all in one place, all in one account.
So keep in your eye out for more information on them later in the show.
But for now, welcome back to Milk Road Crypto, my good friend, Caleb.
Sir, how are you?
Let's rock and roll, man.
I love how you said investors are a bit traumatized in this market because I think that's so appropriate.
It's the same read I have on things.
So I'm super excited to talk about what I'm feeling in this market and the different things that we're both seeing.
So let's get into it, man.
All right.
Well, let's catch up to where we are.
You flipped bearish when Bitcoin lost 97K.
And since then, I've been monitoring your work very closely and you've now started to pivot back in a bullish direction.
Talk me through what was the signal in the market that caused you to flip bearish when we lost 97K and what's changed your mind now when you're seeing bullish price action starting to happen here?
Yeah, I think one of my super, not to pat myself too much on the back here, but one of my superpowers as an investor is my ability to change my mind and adapt based on data, right?
And I think as much as possible, the recipe for investing is actually quite simple.
We want to own uptrends as much as possible, and we want to own as little of downtrends as possible as well.
And so when I saw Bitcoin flipping into what I believed looked like downtrend characteristics in November of 2025, I had to respect the trend.
And now today I'm seeing quite a bit of a different dynamic.
I think, you know, I received a lot of criticism on that call from last year, and that's fine.
I was kind of going against the herd in a lot of ways.
And I think one of the key distinctions that I had is I continued to reiterate a bullish look on what I was seeing in terms of the equity market.
And that really confused a lot of people because how could I still be bullish on equities if Bitcoin...
I was proclaiming was now in a new bear market.
It's just simply because both of those asset classes were exhibiting two different types of trends.
Today, as I look at market conditions, as I look at risk assets, I see Bitcoin reasserting itself back into uptrend behavior, back into bull market dynamics, while equities have continued to be in bull market dynamics.
And that's the full type of risk on environment that I love to be an investor in.
That's where we get rewarded as investors.
We can only manufacture arbitrage really in two ways.
We can buy low and sell high, or we can buy high and sell higher.
That's the name of the game right there, plain and simple.
So for me, as you know, John, everything comes down to price.
I analyze price because I believe it's the best crystal ball that we have available to us to tell us what the market's expectations quite literally are.
And so when all risks and opportunities can be condensed into one single data point, price, I think that in and of itself contains all the information that we need.
And then we can just adapt based on how price signals do change and adapt.
So for me, what caused me to turn bearish last year was price.
Okay.
And at the end of August, you wrote a piece about how the weight of evidence suggests that the worst of the Bitcoin bear market is over.
What were you seeing at the end of August that changed your mind here and caused you to flip from that bearish outlook towards a more bullish one?
So I think two main things happened.
And if you actually want to go to my screen on this.
I think this is a great little starting point for us.
This is Bitcoin since last October, so October 2025.
And all I've added on here is that 200-day moving average cloud.
I don't think there's anything necessarily magical about 200 days, but it's been a proven technique for me that's worked in my 11 years as a technician, so I'm going to continue to rely on it.
And when I saw this breakout move happening, I believe that was on like August 21st or somewhere around there, I had to pay a lot of attention to that because it was quite literally...
Different than at any other point in the context of that downtrend and that bear market you'll notice that's exactly where we got rejected in May of 2026 We didn't even sniff it in that January 2026 potential retest and so this breakout move has quite literally stuck the landing This move right here looks very different than this downtrend dynamic So that in and of itself is really key.
You can stop sharing my screen there if you'd like And I think the other main thing that I paid attention to was something that I was referring to as a momentum thrust.
And in particular, what I was looking at was Bitcoin had gained in that single weekly candle in mid to late August, 20% or more.
And I was saying, man, that's a huge candle.
Throughout Bitcoin's history, how, first of all, how many times has Bitcoin done this?
And second of all, when it has done it in the past, when it's gained more than 20% in a single week, what are forward returns?
for bitcoin and i looked and the data was like super optimistic and i was like wow okay that in and of itself is a great reflection of how we should be trying to position ourselves as investors so in late august i said okay i don't know what the path is going to be going forward but we're seeing this technical breakout above the 200-day moving average cloud and we're getting this momentum thrust what what are the what does the data say And the data tells us that price should be significantly higher six months later, one year later.
And I don't know what path we're going to take to get there.
And that's why I basically came out and said, this is the least bearish that I've been in 10 months at the time.
And why I was saying that now officially, in my opinion, the worst of the bear market is over.
This pullback on Bitcoin is scaring a lot of people and I am not one of them.
So if you want to see what I'm not selling and why, what's on my watch list and when I'm going to be deploying more capital into these markets, you can join Milk Row Pro today.
It's just a dollar.
The link is in the description.
I answer questions day and night in Discord.
I'll see you there.
Gotcha.
Okay.
That's very helpful context on that.
I saw something else that you flagged.
You're great on charts and on signals.
You flagged that the 21-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average.
You said that that's only happened eight times since 2020 for Bitcoin.
Walk us through what that signal is, what it means to you, and why this is such an important moment in your opinion.
So I didn't bring that.
specific chart with me but i brought one that basically layers on top of it in this particular case i have the 21 day ema in blue and the 200 day ema in green so the signal that you're referencing that i highlighted occurred right back here at the exact end of august the only other addition that i have on here is the 55 day ema in red so we're basically just looking at bitcoin's average price over multiple different time frames and looking at how those average prices on those multiple different time frames are related to each other and you know for me the data on this was super conclusive, super optimistic.
I brought a lot of different studies with me here on this particular case, but what I want to specifically reference is this one right here.
When Bitcoin's 21-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, the average three-month return is basically 33%.
The average six-month return is 43.4%, and the average one-year return is 153%.
You'll see here a few of these cases do come out with negative returns these are averages all i'm trying to do with this data is reference or not sorry not to reference but to essentially build out some form of expectations if this is the objective data from the past unfortunately it's the only data that we can rely on because we don't have data from the future but if this is the data from the past and we're trying to use that to form expectations about the future or potential outcomes then this for me is super key right if this signal was basically happening at like $85,000 per BTC or 80K per BTC.
What does it look like 43% higher six months later?
What is the actual price on average one year later with 153% returns?
And so for me, I built out all of these different studies that have occurred over the course of the last basically six to eight weeks.
And from my perspective, I'm sure we'll go over each of these a bit more independently, right?
But, you know.
the data is pretty conclusive, right?
Our upside bias should obviously be in place.
Yeah.
Well, this is a great slide.
And for those listening, I would highly recommend you flip over to YouTube and check out what's on the screen right now because Caleb has assembled an enormous amount of studies about Bitcoin and how it behaves under certain market conditions.
Caleb, step us through a little bit more of what's on this slide and why this is important for investors to understand.
Well, so again, you know, I referenced that momentum thrust that occurred in the mid to end of August.
And, you know, six months later, Bitcoin's up 51%.
One year later, Bitcoin's up 85% on average.
Is that data that I really want to fade?
Is that data that I want to fade in light of the evidence of all the other data on this chart, right?
Because one study, you know, I'm sure there's going to be bears out there who have studies that they're referencing that show poor returns for BTC.
Perhaps, right?
I mean, good luck to them.
But from my perspective, when we have all this weight of the evidence pointing towards positive outcomes six months later, one year later, in terms of average returns, I now have a choice as someone who's been bearish since last November.
Am I going to look at this data and say, you know, I've been bearish.
That's become a bit of my shtick now.
I have a reputation to uphold.
So yeah, all this data exists, but I'm just going to bury my head in the sand and pretend like it doesn't so I can continue to be bearish.
absolutely not right i'm here to make money right i mean the the only reason why i'm an investor and why i'm sharing analysis is because i want to make money in the market um and the analysis that i share is exactly how i'm doing that right and so you know another thing that that i referenced potentially is this indicator for me that obviously allowed me to flip bearish at the end of last year this is the two day 200 moving average cloud it's something that we've talked about on the show in the past john and you know we can see very clearly when price breaks above this two day 200 moving average cloud as it did i believe that was in may of 2020 as it did in march of 2023 and as it just did literally a few weeks ago good things tend to take place and the opposite is also true when price broke above in late 2021 going into 2022 when price broke below in uh late 2025.
bad things tend to happen, right?
So this is a beautiful indicator because it's oversimplifying the entire process for us.
And we could see during the entirety of the bull market, this is an indicator I was sharing in real time, each of those retests were bullish opportunities to rebound and make higher highs, and we did.
Gotcha.
Okay, so there's a strong trend that's starting to flip bullish here.
I want to talk about some of the price levels just around the local place where Bitcoin is at the moment, right?
Because we keep getting resistance at $87K, $88K, and not being able to break through it.
I think on this move up here, we've tested this.
five or six times maybe more at this point um and it keeps presenting strong resistance uh do you think that resistance is likely to continue to hold or do you think we're due for a retest uh or just like what is your thoughts on the local price action right now Yeah.
So, I mean, it might hold, but I think I hope I'm coming off clear enough that I'm bullish again, unequivocally.
I think Bitcoin has reentered a new bull market environment and I will continue to pound the table on that so long as Bitcoin stays above its 200-day moving average cloud.
You can see the prices here on the right-hand side.
The 200-day SMA is currently trading at 71,730.
The 200-day EMA is trading 75,135.
So, as long as we stay above there, I think good things should continue to happen and that Bitcoin is in a new bull market.
I think one of the key conclusions that I've been coming to for my research over the last two months has been, again, coming back to this chart.
If we want to be investors who are going to have the wind in our sails and hope to achieve these returns over the next six months, one year, whatever the case is, we are going to need to, especially with an asset like Bitcoin, endure a significant amount of volatility in order to capture these returns.
Another beautiful realization that I had about these returns is that if dips occur, your forward returns are going to improve relative to what I'm showing on the chart right here.
Right?
So if anything, if we really want to capture these returns or even better, give ourselves an opportunity to outperform these potential returns, we should be looking to allocate rather aggressively into consolidations and downside moves.
And so for me, That's exactly how I'm viewing things right now.
Most notably, that retest into the 200-day moving average cloud for me is going to be one of the biggest kind of back up the truck types of moments.
I know a lot of investors right now are regretting that they weren't buying more in the low to mid 70Ks or below that.
Who knows?
We may not get that opportunity to buy below 70K again.
Maybe we will, maybe we won't.
Nobody knows.
But this indicator, in my opinion, the same way that it acted perfectly as resistance here during that May retest, i think there's a really good chance given that we're in a new bull market that it's going to act as support if we go back down to that range right so for me step number one is are we going to get back down to that range and if we do that's a buy the dip opportunity for the more aggressive investors out there let's go back to that triple ema indicator where we have the 21 day in blue the 55 day in red and the 200 day in green This is going to be a bit more for those aggressive traders looking to scale in at various price points.
We came into that 21-day EMA quite literally this morning after I took the screenshot of this post, the 55-day EMA trading just shy of 79,000.
So I think anywhere basically in that pocket spot are attractive by the dip opportunities.
There's more for sure, but those are some of the key ones I'd really be highlighting to investors right now.
Okay.
I just want to go over all this again, because that was another big question that I had.
If you have accepted that we flipped into a bull market and you are looking to make allocations, where are the places that you would look to deploy?
And then this is, I think I want to just make sure we get this in here too.
Where's the line in the sand where you might say, okay, maybe the bears are back and the bulls have lost too much ground here.
Talk us through that again, just so people all have that all on one more time here.
Of course.
So I will concede that the bull market uh did not come back if bitcoin falls back below i believe it was 71 000 that 200-day moving average cloud um 71 730 as of right now that figure will change over the course of the next few weeks because it's a it's a rolling measurement right so i think that's really important where am i looking to buy i bought more this morning just before we jumped on the show i had a limit order fill at 83 000 um because that was just shy of the 21 day ema so as we think about more of those aggressive levels i'm going to be using these i'm going to be buying on the 21 day ema as i did right now as i did back here i'll be looking to buy on the inevitable retest of the 55 day ema it's going to happen it's just is it going to happen at a price of 79 000 or is it going to happen two months from now when price is 85k You know, I don't know.
But I think those are, sorry, those were two of the questions you asked.
There was a third one, John.
I'm blanking on it.
Sorry.
I can't remember what the third one is either.
But basically the question was, where's the line in the sand for the bulls to defend or lose to the bears?
I think you answered that.
And the other one is just like, where are you looking for pullbacks and accumulation targets here?
And I think you kind of covered that as well.
Anything else to add on either of those?
i think another accumulation range that people can be looking at i like to use something called the anchored volume weighted average price this quite literally measures the market's cost basis from a given price point and period in time so this is a really powerful tool right we can a lot of bitcoiners might reference something like the short-term holder realized price i didn't bring that chart with me but that's another phenomenal indicator i'll be looking to use to dca But we could see, right, if we put the anchored volume weighted average price off of the highs, that level acted as resistance at the end of October, early November 2025.
It acted as resistance in January 2026, almost right here, temporary glass ceiling here before the big breakout move.
So what we have here is former resistance, former resistance, former resistance, and former resistance, now with the opportunity to act and hold as current support.
I think that will be another DCA opportunity.
And then we can also put an anchored volume weighted average price off of the low print from the end of June and early July.
And we could see that since those lows, that anchored volume weighted average price has been dynamic support before every next leg higher.
And so I think if we do manage to go back down into that level, again, this is going to change in the days and weeks ahead because it's dynamic.
It gets calculated.
and recalculated every minute of every single day based on market price action and volume, you know, that might rise up to 75K in the next few weeks if we do get that decline back into 75.
And I think that's one of the beautiful things about what I'm seeing right now is that, okay, if we do get that decline in a 75K and that anchored volume weighted average price has risen up into that level and that 200 day moving average cloud is right there.
That's called confluence, right?
That's when we're looking at the weight of the evidence.
We have all of these different independent variables saying, hey, we should have support here.
The market has a lot of price memory here.
And then we can look and see, is the market actually going to rebound on that spot?
I suspect if we go down there, it will.
Gotcha.
Okay.
I want to talk a little bit, Caleb, if we could, about some of the rest of the digital asset market and the altcoin space.
Bitcoin dominance is hovering around 58%.
It may have shifted a little bit since I took notes on this, but there have been a lot of altcoins in the market that have been ripping.
And I'm curious your thoughts on this.
Bitcoin dominance, like I said, is a little bit off of its high.
The altcoin space is showing some strength, testing some resistances for multi-years going back here.
Do you think we're starting to see the market start to flip bullish on the right?
rest of the digital asset space and just kind of what are your thoughts on on the altcoin space here right now from so what I've been noticing is the majors are doing a great job of of participating in this market which I think we should expect given Bitcoin's move and the strength that we've been seeing and the return of risk appetite within the crypto ecosystem especially in a market environment where the economy is continuing to hold up and actually reaccelerate in many ways.
And stocks are clearly in a bull market.
Just yesterday, we had the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ make brand new fresh all-time highs.
So I think in this environment, investors are willing to move further out onto the risk curve.
And in that kind of environment, we should see...
the most speculative of risk assets, AKA altcoins, if you will, participate in this market.
I think given the proximity to Bitcoin's new birth into a bull market, let's say, for me personally, it's still too early to really look for other opportunities in the altcoin ecosystem, even as a trading perspective.
At some point, I will be looking to dance, but not yet.
and you know kudos to the people who were able to kind of stay headstrong here over the majority of 2026 and uh you know i've been able to make quite a big comeback here in just the last few months so i think that's great for me right now i think it's a bit too early to take any victory laps on that and um i think at the very least we can hang our hat on the fact that you know chain link is making a good comeback in terms of price action solana looks fantastic hype looks amazing zcash looks phenomenal BNB looks good.
XRP is doing XRP things, right?
So I think from that perspective, that kind of participation at the very least gives me confirmation that Bitcoin is doing well.
But maybe I also have some PTSD from last cycle and thank God this didn't necessarily affect me, but I saw how much it affected other people who were saying, yeah, Bitcoin's great, but if Bitcoin's in a new bull market, altcoins are gonna do amazing.
And then they didn't.
So I'm a bit skeptical this time around again because of...
you know, what we experienced last bull market.
Yeah.
And I think that that's how a lot of investors are feeling and you're right.
XRP is still doing XRP things.
So I hope it continues to do that.
I want to ask a question on one you left off the list, which is Ethereum and Ethereum's BTC ratio seems to be finally breaking out of a downtrend there.
And it seems like some people are, I saw you put out some research just today talking about how Ethereum has retested its support and seems to be holding that.
Any updated thoughts on ETH?
ETH BTC or anything about Ethereum here?
Yes, absolutely.
If you want to go to my chart on this, this is what I'm sharing with investors over at Cubic Analytics right now regarding Ethereum.
If we take the anchored volume weighted average prices off the lows of that consolidation from August to early slash mid-September, we're coming right into that spot.
And we also have the opportunity to flip the resistance, that overhead supply into support right now.
So I see some confluence here.
I was actually quite tempted to...
purchase a bit of btc or excuse me ethereum uh today based on this i haven't yet um but you know i think if we look also at you know some of the price action that we were even seeing back here right when we had that breakout move we kept kind of using this former resistance range as support okay some of those wicks got a little scary but we didn't get a daily close below that zone and we were able to re-accelerate so i think even for investors who are buying you know like let's say mid 25k or 2500 you know if we do get that dip into 24 2400 then like i don't think there's much like no harm no foul right so i think even if you are buying here be prepared to buy again in this spot and that would be fantastic let's take a look really quickly at where that 200-day moving average cloud is uh on eth you know it's it's a bit further down so i think the same uh strategy that i shared for for btc applies to ethereum here i mean look at this perfect resistance in Q4 2025, perfect resistance in January 2026.
If we do have an opportunity to come back down between 2126 and 2295, I think, again, that's another really great buying opportunity.
So, you know, this for me as an investor, right?
Like I don't really make single purchases.
I like scaling in and DCAing at key levels over time.
What I feel comfortable saying today is buy the dip opportunities are super attractive.
for me personally.
And now it just comes down to outlining the key levels where you basically commit in advance to saying, if we get down there, I'm planning to buy.
Because there's going to be some scary headline where if we do trade back in that 200-day moving average cloud, investors are going to be too scared to buy here, a lot of them.
And I'd rather be the type of investor who's able to maintain my composure in that kind of environment while other people are running around like a chicken with their head cut off and be able to allocate when other people are a bit too nervous to do so.
You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.
You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else, and if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.
That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.
These guys keep the whole thing under one account.
You can buy, trade crypto, earn interest on what you already hold, and even borrow against your capital without having to sell it.
All in one spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.
So if you need liquidity, but you don't want to give up your position, or you're already holding crypto and you want to be able to...
do more with it.
I think Nexo is worth your time.
We love working with them.
I think you will too.
Tell them Milk Road sent you.
Caleb, fantastic analysis, very helpful.
And I love just not only looking at your price targets and all of that, but how you think about the markets, I think is very helpful, especially during moments of a pullback in a bullish breakout like this.
I want to talk about the macro backdrop because a lot of people in crypto right now are hesitant, scared, hand-wringy about rising bond yields, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.
And I've I've heard people who I trust and respect say that they're still holding a target of 55K on Bitcoin, which sounds wild to me.
But how are you thinking about the macro backdrop here?
And how significant are these things like rising bond yields to your analysis of Bitcoin and its bull market here?
So I think macro right now, as usual, actually, is putting people in the whirlwind in terms of trying to figure out what the hell is going on.
And this is why a lot of times I say investors would probably be better off paying almost zero attention to macroeconomics.
Unfortunately, my hands are a bit tied because that's what I have my degree in.
And it's one of my areas of obsession.
So I enjoy looking at macro, analyzing macroeconomic conditions, et cetera.
But especially as somebody who used to be a former doomer, someone who used to listen to people like...
the Jim Rickards and the Peter Schiff's and the Jim Rogers of the world.
I really had to adapt how I viewed macroeconomic conditions in order to become a better investor.
And so I think right now, more than ever, we do need to embrace nuance.
And I think what's happening in economic conditions is that the economy is doing much better than anybody's given it credit for.
It's not perfect.
I wouldn't even go as far as to say it's super strong.
I also recognize that the economy doesn't need to be perfect or super strong.
It just needs to, in order for me to make money, it just needs to be supportive of the bullish conditions that we have in the markets, right?
I don't trade GDP.
I don't trade initial unemployment claims.
I don't trade retail sales.
I can't buy retail sales, right?
All I can do are trade asset prices.
So for me, I'm looking at asset price.
I'm saying, hey, they're back in uptrends or the equities have been in uptrends.
and our macro condition our macroeconomic conditions supportive of those uptrends my belief has been for years now that the answer generally has been yes but then again everything for me comes down to price right so you know i saw a lot of people in q1 of this year that were saying oh my god you know the ism data is finally an expansion territory you know bitcoin always does well in those periods so i have to be bullish because the i you know didn't matter right that got a lot of investors wrecked in fact um because they were too busy focusing on ism data and not busy enough focusing on bitcoin's trend so um you know for me macro is is a lot of fun and you know i am seeing uh quite a few things right now in terms of macroeconomic data um but i think one of the most important charts that i'm seeing is this one it's the city group economic surprise index um this is from yardenny research shout out to yardenny and this goes back basically over the last 10 years but i'm just going to zoom in here on that far right and what we see is a massive kind of re-acceleration that took place here just over the last few months and what this is showing is that you know in order for this chart to go up requires economic data to come out better than wall street estimates and analyst expectations so when that kind of environment is in place the dollar is going to strengthen yields are going to go up because nobody wants safe haven assets in an environment where the economy is expanding and the economy is expanding right again if we even go over to something like the composite pmi this data came out super super fantastic this is a great chart from s p global because they've also overlaid uh gdp uh which is you know phenomenal and then if we break this down into the services side and the manufacturing side um both of them are in expansionary territory right well above 50 and accelerating and so from that standpoint you know if we look at just that data in and of itself uh good things are likely to happen in an economy that's accelerating even if it's only at a modest pace you know the atlanta fed right now forecasting i think it's like 3.5 percent real gdp growth for q3 um okay yeah that's down a bit from one of the more recent forecasts of five percent but that's a phenomenal uh uh economic growth rate.
So, you know, I don't want to let perfect be the enemy of good here.
As I look at economic data, to me, things look very sufficient to support the ongoing uptrend that we're seeing in asset prices.
Gotcha.
Okay.
So what I'm hearing you say is that maybe one of the reasons why bonds are rising is that capital is coming out of the bond market and looking for risk assets like equities, like crypto, like Bitcoin.
Is that how you're seeing this play out in the markets?
Does that match with what you're seeing?
That's definitely part of it.
And again, I think if If Wall Street is required to raise their expectations of economic growth, then they are not going to be willing to invest in treasuries at current rates, right?
That's a no-brainer, right?
So the demand declines, and in order to attract that new demand, yields need to go up.
And that's exactly what we've been seeing, right?
And I think there's a lot of reasons for that.
I also feel in a lot of ways that the treasury market is testing both the treasury department based on the new buyback program that was announced in the middle of August, And I also think it's testing Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve, right?
So I think in a lot of ways, there are games that are taking place that a lot of people we just can't explain or prove.
But if I had to guess, I think that's also part of the picture here.
Caleb, I heard you say on a podcast recently, not on this channel, which I was very jealous of, but I watched the podcast anyway.
You said that you hold somewhere between, and I won't make you disclose the specifics of this, but you said you hold somewhere between 50 and 75% of your portfolio in Bitcoin.
And I was hoping you could elaborate on that for the audience and specifically share with us how you stomach the volatility of holding so much of your portfolio in an asset that's that volatile.
And what has that been like for you this year?
Just tell us a bit about that.
Why the concentration of Bitcoin?
How do you navigate the emotions that come from that?
That's a lesson that I'm still trying to learn.
I mean, it's not easy to be so heavily invested in an asset that falls from $126,000 to $59K over the course of eight months.
That wasn't a great time.
And I think I had to learn some lessons from the 2022 bear market.
And that's one of the reasons why I decided to sell a significant portion of my Bitcoin at $97,000 last November.
And I was able to repurchase.
based on the various indicators I was sharing over at Cubic Analytics, anywhere between 60 and 75K.
And so from my perspective, just trying to reduce some of my risk and what I believe we were entering a new bear market was sufficient.
And I think to an extent I've just been doing, I've been an investor for a long time now where I also have to recognize the market isn't always going to be your friend.
It's going to be hard sometimes, but I generally have a belief that asset prices generally are going to trend higher.
over the long run, whether that's equities, whether that's gold, whether that's Bitcoin.
And I generally believe in addition to that, that that kind of asset price appreciation is just a form of inflation.
When we generally have quantitative easing dynamics happening, bank lending is accretive, M2 is on the rise, that only contributes to the K-shaped nature of the US economy that in my opinion is quite literally designed to reward asset holders and people with debt.
And so from that perspective, I want to align with those kinds of dynamics as much as possible and give myself the best chance to win that race by owning the fastest horses in the race.
So for me, yeah, Bitcoin is like 70% of my total net worth.
That wasn't a hell of a lot of fun over the course of the last year, but I was able to buy back lower.
And if my long-term prediction comes to be true, then, you know, that's great.
You know, I'm not necessarily going to be taking victory laps on that, but, you know, and then on the other side of things like, yeah, of course I still have some cash.
And then I own a lot of stocks, you know, and the types of stocks that I own are basically, you know, the variations of high beta tech, semiconductors, software, again, the fastest horses in the equity markets, right?
So, you know, I'm not out here owning Pepsi and McDonald's and utility stocks because while I think those are going to trend higher over the long run, I'm 31 years old.
I'm willing to take that extra risk.
I have income.
I'm not...
too worried about my financial situation.
So even if things do decline and consolidate, I feel comfortable and confident about my ability to endure those periods to make it the greener pastures because of my long-term belief that asset prices are just going to trend higher over time.
Thank you, Caleb.
There's a lot of wisdom in that.
I appreciate you sharing that with our audience.
I want to ask you about your year-end outlook for Bitcoin and for crypto here.
Citi recently published an updated target for Bitcoin of $113,000.
I'm curious if you have an outlook here.
I know you just try to react to what price action and the markets are telling you, but what do you think happens?
What are you expecting for Bitcoin for between now and the end of 2026?
I have no idea in terms of like...
You're making it hard from here, John, adding a second variable here in terms of by the end of 2026, man.
Look, I think price will be higher than it is now by the end of the year.
How much higher, I don't know.
I feel very confident right now that so long as we stay above that 200-day moving average cloud, we're going to go to new all-time highs.
So we can, at minimum, look at 126.
And then I recently published a lot of different price targets, I think towards around like 205,000.
for BTC.
I forget the specifics.
I think 159,000 was on there, 142K was on there, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
But look, I think we're going higher over the next three months, six months, 12 months, so long as the bullish structure that we have in the market today stays intact.
And if...
we break down below that 200-day moving average cloud, we fall below 71,000, then those targets temporarily are going to be invalidated.
And I'll come out and I'll say that those price targets were wrong and erroneous, and we move on, right?
But I think the beauty of that right now is, I'm talking about price targets of 142, 159, I think somewhere in the 160s and 200.
Those are huge strides forward in terms of percent gains that can be captured.
But I'm talking about downside invalidation of 71K.
And so here we are trading at 83,000, like, okay, yeah, we might have to take 15% on the chin.
But if we have to take 15% on the chin to potentially capture 130% returns, for some of you, that's going to be very lucrative.
For others of you, that's not going to be very enticing.
For me, I fall in the first bucket.
So, you know, I'm willing to take that trade every day of the weekend, twice on Tuesday.
Okay, great.
One other question about this is around altcoins because we talked about you're heavily concentrated in Bitcoin.
You listed almost a dozen different altcoins that you're watching and you're saying they're looking good.
Is there a point that you're looking for to begin to add to altcoin positions?
In other words, like deploying cash into those or rotating some Bitcoin into those?
What are you watching for as a signal that might make you start taking positions in altcoins?
um let me say this is like the the last two cycles where i've been very involved in crypto my involvement in altcoins has been very aggressive from a short-term trading standpoint so the the the time frame that i'm using for my bitcoin analysis I would say is not applicable, if you will, to how I'd be looking to invest and take positions in altcoins.
Those altcoin positions, I'm getting hyper aggressive.
I'm looking at one, two, four hour candles.
And those are kind of swing trades over like a five day to two week kind of horizon, if you will.
So I'm in and out of things very quickly.
That worked in my favor in a lot of ways.
Last bull market, because I was able to capture some gains, but I saw a lot of people at the same time who weren't trading, who were just involved in those altcoins, who were able to make huge gains.
that's also a double-edged sword because i don't remember hearing them ever tell me like oh i'm finally selling out of this now i've made 5x they ended up just holding the bag and some of them even capitulated just you know three four five six months ago on some of those positions and made no money at all from their positions right so for me i take the more aggressive short-term route i don't i don't know john you know i don't have an answer for that though about when exactly or what i'll be looking for i i generally at some to some degree i just feel confident in my ability to say hey it's here now So when that time comes, I'll be super loud and outspoken about it.
So just tune in.
Well, just tune in is great advice.
I've been following you for a long time.
I know our audience loves your work.
Caleb, thank you so much for being on MillCodeCrypto.
I feel like we covered a lot of great information in this one.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Just go check me out on X, 100%.
It's just at Caleb Franzen, putting research out there pretty frequently.
And then over on Substack, cubicanalytics.substack.com.
I'm putting out daily voice notes, weekly live streams, weekly research.
uh quarterly portfolio updates so if you're really interested in what i own and why and how i'm looking to navigate the portfolio um i was selling a few stocks yesterday i won't say which ones go sign up you know that's where you can get kind of that uh layered access into more of you know because look you know at the end of the day cubic analytics is really sharing the exact analysis that i'm using to make investment decisions When I published the bear market playbook at the end of last year, I literally forecasted once these conditions happen for Bitcoin, I'm going to be looking to allocate heavily into BTC.
Those signals started to flash as soon as February and continue to flash.
through june and july and so investors who read that research at the end of 2025 went into 2026 prepared for an endurance mentality to survive the bear market so that we can make it to what i believe is now the new bull market and invest in a prudent way so that we can enjoy the fruits of our labor and our patients so if that's up your alley definitely go sign up for cubic analytics Caleb, I follow your research very closely.
I was very excited to see you finally flip bullish.
And for those who've been following Milk Road for a while, you'll know that Caleb was one of my favorite guests on Milk Road Macro before I took over as the host of Milk Road Crypto.
And I've been waiting for you to flip bullish so I can have you back on the show.
So I've been really excited for this conversation.
Yeah, and I think the other thing I'll say is that both of us were deploying aggressively in the bear market.
And that was fun too.
And I was like, okay, I think I should buy here.
And then I saw you did.
And I was like, all right, well, I'm.
That kind of settles that.
Caleb, thank you so much for being on the show.
Really appreciate it.
I'm looking forward to having you back again as this bull market continues to play out.
But thank you for being on Milk Road Crypto.
Anytime, John.
See you soon, bro.
All right.
And we hope you all enjoyed this episode.
I know I did.
It's good to have Caleb back on the show.
So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of Milk Road Crypto.
Thanks for being here, everyone.
Bye.
Thanks for listening to Milk Road.
If you enjoyed the show, make sure you like and subscribe.
And if you're struggling to find winners in the market, that's exactly what Milkroad Pro is built for.
Our analysts have called some of the biggest winners early and Pro lets you see what they're buying next, every trade they make, and the research behind every position.
Check out Milkroad Pro at the link below.
Everything you hear on Milkroad is for informational purposes only.
These are our personal opinions, not financial advice.
And we may own some of the investments we talk about.
Always do your own research and make the decisions that are right for you.
See you next time.