# Crypto Bull Market Confirmation and Strategic Positioning

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-09-21

## Transcript

Bitcoin is at $86,000, a sentence nobody has said since January 28th of this year.
And when we said it then, it was out of sheer terror.
This is a day we waited for a long time.
So pour that coffee, get that Red Bull or Four Loko or whatever people drink these days and lean in.
What's up, everybody?
It's LG Ducet here.
Welcome to Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that is so happy to be back.
We did it.
Today is September 21st, 2026, the first day of fall and the first day of the bull market.
I've got John Gillen here.
And honestly, I think we're just going to get right into it because from what he told me before we started recording, this is full risk on time.
We're going to talk about how the market has changed.
this pump means to us, what alts he is positioned for in this upcoming, very exciting market.
And honestly, just everything that has happened in the last little bit and what to look forward to a reminder today that our podcast is free and that it wouldn't be possible without our partners at Nexo, the digital asset platform that lets you trade, earn and borrow all in one place.
Keep an ear out for more information about them later in the show.
Hello, sir.
Hello, LG.
It's good to see you again.
Just remain calm.
Just chill.
Just, just, just remain calm.
Okay.
Just max out your credit cards.
Yeah, I mean, that's I feel a little bit like that right now, but I feel pretty calm, too, in the sense that, like, I've been kind of saying this is going to happen for a long time and it finally has started to play out.
And so I feel pretty good today.
It's a nice morning.
It's a good Monday.
Just to recap where we were at, we didn't do a show, you and I, last week.
We did do a pro after hours where we chatted about your interview with Raul Powell, which was incredibly well-timed to have a big name like him on the show, literally right as things were about to take off.
John, just to recap where we were at last week, potential cataclysmic, typically cataclysmic events for crypto, right?
Clarity Act did not go through.
The rates were hiked, 25 basis points.
Yet, to me, this felt like...
crypto didn't dump.
In fact, it held steady and it was almost like an opposite sell the news, right?
Typically it's like, oh, when we have good news, that's when there's a huge sell off right after.
This was like, everyone was waiting for this bad news.
You'd been saying this, Matt Hogan had been saying this.
A lot of guests on our show had been saying this, that it's like, listen, clearly act good or bad.
Once that's done, you remove the uncertainty from the market.
And hence we're up.
I don't even know how much, like 15% on Bitcoin or something like that since that day in just six days, man, is this.
Did you expect to pump this quick, this fast following something like that?
I think because both of these things were relatively priced in, like there was a lot of uncertainty about the Fed's decision.
But as we got closer and closer to it, it seemed like the market was like, I still don't think it totally makes sense, like that the Fed did hike rates, but the market was kind of demanding it based on like a lot of the things you're seeing in prediction markets and the pricing of the yield curve and the two year and so forth.
It seemed like the market was demanding a rate hike, so they got it.
And so the market reacted well to that.
And then I think with the Clarity Act, it had already sort of been priced in.
And then the thing I was – I said this on the roll-up when I was on there.
I think what we might actually see here is like a max bullish outcome where the Clarity Act doesn't pass, but the Clarity Act was really more so to protect the banks.
It had become something that was more designed to protect banks than to help crypto.
And now you're going to have regulators coming out with – frameworks for digital assets that actually give clarity to the digital asset industry and allow them to operate in the US jurisdiction in much more nuanced, specific and clear and helpful ways.
So it's, I think, actually going to be more constructive for the digital asset space.
The timeframes on these things are only like a five-year grace period.
So we do still need to get legislation at some point.
But for the moment, though, I think this...
This all looks like a very bullish setup.
These things were priced in.
The market reacted well.
I hope your blinds are okay.
And it's just up only from here, man.
We're back in a bull market.
The sun is shining.
Here, I'll open it back up.
The sun is shining on my face this beautiful day, blinding me as we're having the show.
What an exceedingly normal podcast.
It's a beautiful first day of autumn in Canada.
And the Bitcoin is at 86K.
And the sun has come out to greet me one more time before the dark, long winter.
Okay, well, I mean, that's very interesting.
And you mentioned as well, John, and you told this to me.
I don't know if this is.
this is in private or you told our pro members, you said this, I think a few times last week that as it was clear the day before the clarity act, that it's like, this thing's not going to go through, like they're not going to get the votes.
And even as it was happening, you were like, listen, you know, what's going to happen the next day or the day after is that the SEC is going to come in right away and like save crypto in a sense, or at least in the short term and be like, listen, here's some new rules are made up.
Just go for it.
And that's, that's essentially what happened.
Right.
Yep.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's exactly what happened.
And I think it's like it's very bullish.
It's very constructive for the space.
There's a lot of new things that can be tried, new products and services can be launched and brought to market.
But it also kind of gives license to the sort of animal spirits and the bullish price action to continue, the bullish momentum to continue.
But really, I think this is all just since we hit that huge short liquidation event in August.
It's been like a long time now since that happened, but I can't remember exactly how long ago it was.
I haven't looked at all this since, but for basically the last three months or two and a half months since that happened, Bitcoin's price action has been up and sideways, but it hasn't really had a pullback.
It hasn't gone down in any meaningful or significant way.
And that's been true of the rest of the altcoin space.
The real bullish momentum I think you can find in the altcoin sector, though, because Bitcoin has been chopping sideways or climbing higher.
But Ethereum is over 2700 and close to 2800.
I think it did get over 2800 briefly.
So I think Ethereum will be back at 3000 before you know it.
And we've seen just this rapid just explosion in price across a lot of different assets.
You know, we had Raul Paul on last week.
Raul Powell, sorry.
on last week.
He talks about SWE.
I interviewed him about that.
SWE has pumped 30%, I think, in the last 24 hours.
And then, you know, Derive, I interviewed Nick Forster on the channel a few weeks or a couple months ago, something like that.
And his product is up.
Derive, his options product is up over or around 200%, I think, in the last week.
And you could just go down the list.
There's all kinds of big movers all across the board.
L1s, DEXs, all kinds of projects.
So that momentum, I think, is solidified and is going to continue.
Even if we do get some kind of like mild correction on Bitcoin here, Uniswap is not going to go back to $2.50 again, you know?
So like there's sort of like been this release of the bullish momentum.
And really, the way I read this is just kind of like a reversion to me.
And I was telling Chevy, our newsletter writer about this today.
There's been a bull market in a lot of other assets for a very long time that crypto just has not participated in.
Getting back above the 50-week moving average for Bitcoin just really means that it's gotten back above the average price of the last year.
And so that kind of means like Bitcoin has just reverted to the mean here.
And so I think if we do see overvaluations or more bullish momentum in crypto, we could see prices get more extended from here.
So far, all that's happened is that Bitcoin and crypto has sort of rejoined the bull market and sort of reverted to the mean.
And we'll see how overvalued they get from here.
But that's kind of my read of what's happened so far.
We've just kind of gotten back to average.
And now I'm looking forward to seeing some of the bullish momentum continue and to see some actual, you know, let's say.
Price appreciation coming back into the asset class.
Hi, everyone.
This is John.
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John, I want to talk about alts and something that you said about Uniswap and that we're not going to be able to buy Uniswap at $250 anymore.
We are going to look at John's portfolio at the end of the show for one of our Milk Road Pro after hours.
So if anybody wants to stick around or if you're not a pro member, it's just a dollar to check that out or to test it out for seven days and you'll get access to this part.
But we're going to spend 20 minutes after looking at John's portfolio and the alts that he's accumulated in the last couple of weeks and even the ones that he may be buying this week.
But John, Uniswap was your first alt buy almost a month ago now.
I pestered you for months asking you, when are you going to unload all your cash into these either alt?
Because you had been accumulating Bitcoin and ETH in pro, obviously, and I think a lot of people had.
But I was asking you, when are you going to unload into these alts?
And you said you were waiting and you didn't buy a Uniswap at $250 either.
But you're saying we're not going to get there anymore.
The alt train has left the station.
Where are we at?
Which stop is it at?
I don't really know which stop, how to put it in terms of stops on a train line.
But what I would say is that different assets are at different phases of this.
And I think you're going to continue to see dispersion.
I think what the market is rewarding right now are assets that have a clear revenue thesis, right?
So like users, adoption, revenue, and then...
tying that revenue and adoption back to the token itself directly.
And people have done that in different ways.
Obviously, some people are using like a direct buyback and burn thing like Hype and Pump and many others.
Chainlink has a Chainlink Reserve program where they have off-chain businesses that they're then using to buy the link token and hold that in reserve.
Syrup has a buyback program and a Syrup Reserve that they're doing.
So there's a whole bunch of different versions of this.
Uniswap obviously really caught fire because they turned on their fee switch and started burning Unitokens.
at a pretty alarming clip.
Aerodrome uses the vote escrow model to have people lock and then vote and then get rewards that way and their rebasing strategy.
So every project, every token has a different version of this, but the ones that do, I think, are getting rewarded by the market and getting the concentration of capital and attention right now.
But I do think that at different times in the market, we could see speculation or exuberance come back into some of these alt layer ones.
It really is going to depend on...
you know, how this evolves and where the market goes from here.
But I think it's just early innings on all of these things.
And like, that's the thing that's so crazy about this is that you can see multiple hundred percent pumps on things and then still be like, you know, this has a long way to run.
I think lighter is a great example of this lighter.
You know, one of our crypto analysts, Martin was calling lighter at under a dollar.
It's now bumping around five bucks and could still go much higher than this, I think, because it's like, you know, only a.
like a little bit over a billion dollar market cap and the total addressable market for perps is so large so i don't know it's it's like a difficult thing to say like where different things are and like the the progression of the bull market here but i think it's still early early innings across the board and there's a lot of room to run on a lot of these assets i think a lot of people you know i was asking that question mainly to just understand for people that I'm sure are feeling the same way that it's like, and this happened already a month and a half ago, John, where we felt caught off guard, right?
There was that day Trump came up and said hyperliquid, which was nuts.
And, and, you know, you had this green shoot of crypto and people were like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on.
Wait, I'm not, I'm not ready yet.
Right.
Because we thought there'd be another bottom or whatever.
So I think at this, and we'll talk about that in a second.
I want to save that, but I'm just saying for, for actual positioning, I think a lot of people still feel caught off guard, even after the pump.
Late last week, after these, you know, kind of well-known catalysts came through, I think people were thinking, it's like, well, you know, how can we have more green shoots from here?
We're just in bear market for a long time.
And then lo and behold, maybe the tokens that they were eyeing are literally up to X from what they were looking at.
Like people who maybe wanted to buy Sui or Near.
Near is a great example, right?
It's like even after that Trump hyperliquid day and all that stuff, late August, it was still at $1.50.
Today, it was pushing 450 almost, right?
So it's something where it's like, I think people are really caught off guard.
And it's one of those weeks or one of those days where I think people feel that FOMO of they're like, listen, my investment strategy is smart, but for some reason, I'm not positioned in this pump.
And I don't want to be late again.
So you might have a lot of FOMO money coming in.
and a little potentially a little bit reckless, right?
Because you go on the timeline, everybody is like bull market, bull market.
This is it.
We're above the 50 week moving average.
We're above the 365 day, whatever.
You know what I mean?
All these metrics was like, this is on time to be risk on.
That's always, that always makes me a little weary that everyone's just going to go and unload the clip.
Yeah.
So a couple of things on this first.
Nothing we say is financial advice.
Do your own research.
I don't know what's going to happen with all these things.
This is all just opinion and speculation.
So like everybody, please consult a financial advisor and make a decision that's right for you.
So like all that still applies here just because it's an exciting Monday.
It doesn't mean that any of that goes out the window.
So that's important to say.
The other thing I'll say is that you never want to trade on emotion, even if the emotion feels good, right?
So you don't want to like...
sell because you're panicked and scared and you don't want to buy because you have overwhelming FOMO.
You want to trade on fundamentals and with a strategy that makes sense for you and for your capital and your goals.
I think that this has been a really hard time to navigate this because a lot of people in our pro community have been asking me what I think is a target for an entry.
And the market will maybe come back and dip, but not quite get to the target that they have and then move against them.
And then you're back to chasing again.
So what I would say is don't rush, don't FOMO.
If we are going into a bull market, that means that we'll have a lot of time to find a position.
And it means that there will be multiple.
times we'll have 20 or 30% pullbacks on these assets.
during that bull market so you don't have to like panic by any means but i do think it's time like i've been saying for months to pivot to crypto to start looking at this asset class and making a strategy for yourself and your capital that makes sense for you in crypto and just having an allocation here um but yeah i think that there there can be that reflexive price action where price starts to go up people get fomo they panic buy-in and that pushes price further and so i don't think that's necessarily happening yet but We have definitely seen a lot of shorts getting squeezed and price just keeps climbing and making new highs.
So yeah, we'll have to kind of see how all this plays out.
But I would advise people to try to temper their FOMO because just because we're confirming a new bull market doesn't mean that you've missed everything.
Okay, John, you know, I always come on here and I always want to talk about the common narrative, right?
That's the angle that I come in on the show with.
And let's just recap them, right?
A year ago.
Around this exact time, everybody's saying Q4.
Q4 is the quarter we've all waited for.
It became the total opposite.
The first half of this year, everybody was saying we will bottom in Q3, which has been true so far.
But it's going to be late Q3, maybe even Q4.
Wait a while.
And even whenever we talk about being anti-consensus, right?
That it's like too many people are saying the same thing.
We talked about...
that it's like well don't wait for that and even when you had jan van ek on the stocks show he told you the same thing about crypto he said don't get cute he's like don't get cute waiting for another 10 or 15 percent down he's like just buy now anyways right don't what don't don't don't be don't be silly with it so far he's right as well and i think and and even and even you know the great ben cowen um who who has you know is has been a central figure in this four-year cycle discussion uh and was one of the people who last quarter or at the end of last year was the one beating the drum, be like, listen, it's done.
Like we're going to wait another year.
He was saying this year, we might, we're going to have another bottom.
And now today he's, he's admitted that he was probably wrong on that, which was, which was really great of him as well.
What I'm saying is the common narrative I've heard today that I think is the, if I have to pick a new consensus, overly consensus narrative is this idea that there is a lot of time for the bull market.
And I'm just I don't know if that's it.
It takes a while for these giga huge narrative consensus things to form.
It takes a while for everybody to say the same thing over and over and over.
But I'm just saying that that's the thing I'm seeing is like, oh, we're going to have this long bull market.
You're going to have all these fluctuations and all these entry points.
What makes you so sure?
OK, well.
So there's a lot of ways to take this question.
The first thing that comes to mind, I'll say, is that the third year of a presidential term has been a bull market in risk assets, like the equities markets in general, general other risk assets in, I think, every administration except for like 1939.
I could be wrong on this, but basically.
the third year of a president of a u.s president is always a bull market in in equities now that doesn't necessarily mean it'll always be a bull market in crypto because you know markets can can vary in these things but in general next year is going to be a bullish year and i think that that's like pretty baked in um and i also think that the trump administration views this as a matter of national security so they're not going to let the stock market totally collapse um I think that that, you know, look, there's huge demands for liquidity from all directions, right?
Like if Anthropic wants to IPO, that takes liquidity.
If they want to keep the asset markets, the equities markets propped up, that takes liquidity.
They want to keep the housing market.
get up, that's going to take liquidity.
If they want to support the bond market here, they're going to need to provide liquidity for that.
And so one way or another, I do think that the Fed and the Treasury are going to have to provide the market the liquidity that it needs.
And eventually that excess liquidity results in people seeking outperformance and going further at the risk curve that brings that capital to crypto and Bitcoin.
And it also weakens the dollar immensely.
And Bitcoin, I think, is one of the cleanest shorts on the dollar that exists on the market.
So all of these things are very constructive for the digital asset space.
At the same time, you have a bunch of fundamental drivers of adoption for digital assets, stable coins, tokenization, agentic finance, and, you know, et cetera, right?
So there's a lot of things being built and developed and new technologies, new forms of economic activity, new kinds of demand drivers, all coming to market quickly that have got, you know, widespread regulatory support tailwinds from our government here in the United States, but also from other jurisdictions and governments around the world.
All these things are converging on.
dare I say, Ethereum, but on digital assets overall.
And I think it's going to provide a strong support of demand, liquidity, and just adoption in general as the market grows, the addressable market grows, the number of products and service grow.
And so the market, I think, is set up to perform very well.
I don't know exactly how long that will go, right?
Because eventually we will see this turn around.
It's going to zig when everybody expects it to zag.
But I'm less concerned right now with trying to predict exactly where I think the top is going to be and more concerned with appreciating that we're coming off of a bottom and focusing on that.
Last time, last bull market, I thought Bitcoin was going to get to 140K or higher.
It didn't quite make it there.
Right now, I haven't really settled on what my prediction is here, but I think somewhere north of 150K feels directionally where Bitcoin should likely go.
That's kind of like a conservative low target.
But on the upside, I don't really know.
And you're right.
Look, things can change quickly.
Black swans can always happen.
Events can shift against us.
But for right now, I think that the expectation should be that there should be tailwinds to support risk asset markets for the foreseeable future.
through the bulk of, if not all of next year, but we'll have to keep an eye on this and see how this develops.
But I think that there's a lot of reasons to say that that should be the expectation here.
And, but it's not going to be a straight line.
And that's the other thing to say is that as.
volatility is the price you pay for performance.
So as the performance begins to pick up, the volatility will as well.
And you have to be able to expect that and navigate that and, you know, make a strategy for yourself and for your emotions and your capital to get through that, because this is not just going to be like an easy, like straight upwards walk.
It feels like that right now for Bitcoin and crypto.
I promise you it will get scary again at some point in this process.
You know, one of the weird things about crypto is that the longer you're in it, the more accounts you seem to end up with.
You buy in one place, trade somewhere else, earn yield somewhere else.
And if you actually need capital, you end up having to sell something that you probably wanted to keep.
That's why we at Milk Road are partnering with Nexo.
These guys keep the whole thing under one account.
You can buy, trade crypto, earn interest on what you already hold, and even borrow against your capital without having to sell it.
All in one spot, all in one account, all on Nexo.
So if you need liquidity, but you don't want to give up your position, or you're already holding crypto and you want to be able to do more with it, I think Nexo is worth your time.
We love working with them.
I think you will too.
Tell them Milk Road sent you.
Of course.
Is this, is this, and again, I'm just playing devil's advocate.
You know what I mean?
Don't get me wrong.
I'm all horned up.
Like, I'm very excited.
Like, this is not I'm not shitting on crypto.
I'm over on stocks and we're trying to figure out, you know, whatever is going to happen with AI.
And if people still care about Micron, man, like I, this is crypto.
This is my zone.
But what I just want to play crypto's advocate to or devil's advocate, let's say I'm a crypto advocate to the common narratives and what we hear.
And today.
is one of those days where it's like overly it's just so overwhelmingly overwhelmingly bullish that it does make me question like that's that's always that can always be a bit of a canary in the coal mine moment at times um but we have just started this bullishness and i also think we have like bear market ptsd which is what people always joke about but it's like listen we're just we're not used to having nice things we you and i did a live show on 1010 right before the mega crash and we held this carried this podcast the whole time so for You know, to go back up and the idea that it's like, well, we could even be at 100K soon is so insane to even fathom, even though a month and a half ago we were at 62.
Yeah.
So you make a really good point on this.
I want to kind of expand my thoughts on this a little bit.
I agree with you.
So, so far, I think we have been in a bull market overall.
Crypto like fell out of that on October 10th and never rejoined it.
It seems to me what's happened now is crypto has begun to rejoin that.
A lot of people who are digital asset native investors are, just like you're saying, taking this as a signal that we should expect for, let's say, three more years of basically sideways and up on crypto, on Bitcoin, on everything in the digital asset landscape.
I think that there's an argument to be made that really all that's happened here is that...
Bitcoin has reverted to the mean.
It has caught up to the existing bull market rather than started a new one.
And there may be a very strong season of bullish market action ahead of us still, but it could just be a lengthening cycle of the one that we've...
already been in because the equities market is still in the large bull market that's been going on there.
So whatever way pans out here, right?
If people are expecting a three-year bull market and we only get another, maybe let's say year, year and a half, that's going to surprise a lot of the bulls too.
But that hasn't happened yet either.
Just like a lot of the bears were surprised at how shallow and how short this bear market was for Bitcoin too.
So I agree with you that...
All these things becoming consensus is a red flag.
The market zigs when people think it's going to zag.
There's going to be something different about the way this bull market plays out that surprises a lot of people too.
I agree with that.
It's too early for me to say confidently what that is going to be.
But I think that's kind of the mindset that I've had this whole time.
People have been asking me in our pro community since like January or February, John, when are you going to admit that you were wrong about the lengthening cycle?
And now I'm like, my response at the time was like, ask me this question again when we get to November.
Because if Bitcoin's over 100K in November, Maybe the lengthening cycle thesis looks a little bit good.
Maybe we never actually got to the bull market that we were expecting.
So look, there's a lot of things that are undetermined right now about all of these things.
But to keep it, again, to Q4 of 2026, Bitcoin confirming these price levels is a strongly, strongly bullish indicator.
It doesn't mean we're going to teleport to $150K tomorrow, and it doesn't mean that we won't have pullbacks or retests of support.
We could chop for a long time.
In the equities market, in the macro landscape, there are a lot of things that are presenting headwinds.
There's still this energy shock that's a result of this rate of Hormuz.
The Fed is raising interest rates, which is tightening.
The bottom market yields are going up, which is a form of tightening.
So I think that there's a lot to say that there could be some headwinds to risk assets for the next couple of weeks.
to maybe a month or so here.
And so maybe what's happening is what Jordy Visser has been saying is that because the AI trade and the equities markets have slowed down, it's just given some time for capital to come look for performance in crypto.
And that's what we've seen in Q3 numbers here from crypto.
We'll see how all this plays out.
I'm not like pounding the table on any of these things, but I am saying very firmly that crypto has been oversold like obscenely for a very, very long time.
It's now reverted to the mean.
It's reclaimed a lot of key levels.
The bullish momentum.
And dips are for buying until further notice, but further notice could be a year from now.
So I think, yeah, it's a good time to just like pay attention, lock in, don't panic buy, don't panic sell.
People are asking me about taking profits too.
I posted about this on Twitter.
I think it's insane to be taking profits right now because we've just now confirmed the bullish breakout, right?
So anyway, there's a lot to unpack in all of this, but we're just going to need more time and get more information from the market, right?
That's why I said in February, asked me in November, because I think we have to get more time and information from the market.
This is why I say stay educated because it's so important to be learning right now because everything that changes about this market cycle.
teaches you something new about the markets, about the asset class you're invested in, that makes you a more informed and better investor going forward in your career in or out of crypto.
So there's just a lot to be learned right now.
Let's talk about, I mean, you're waiting, what you said makes sense.
You're going to wait for the market to give you more information, but let's definitely lean in a little bit to what may happen next.
These bull market confirmations, right?
And these have been largely technical signals.
And of course it's paired with...
bullish PA or TA, sorry, and, or price tag, both.
And, you know, you said the other day in our pro community, and I think you said this on Friday or Saturday, you said that like, if we, if we can close above the 50 week moving average, I think it was you, maybe this is muddled, but I think you said this is like, that's very bullish, right?
And yesterday, I think that's what everybody was watching is that we're finally closing back above that.
And that usually signals the start of a bull market.
This is this agreed upon metric that everybody, that everybody accepts.
So What happens now?
What is the butterfly effect, in a sense, in the market of such a metric happening?
Because it doesn't mean that the next day, literally, we pumped 81 to 86 so far today, but that's minimal compared to what the longer-term effects will be.
Are there more big wallets coming in now who have been waiting for that?
Is that what you're implying with that?
There's a lot of people that do not...
They don't try and time bottoms.
They wait for super bullish confirmations.
And you even said this months ago when I was asking you about buying alts.
You're like, no, I'm waiting.
I don't care about buying the bottom.
I'm waiting for my bullish check marks to check and I'm going to buy.
And that's what you've done the last couple of weeks.
And now is this 50-week moving average?
Is this breakout now?
Is this one big check, that big check mark that means a lot of other different types of money will start to look at crypto and come into it over the coming?
months, not days, like months it takes for these funds and whatever to mobilize.
Yes.
I think very firmly, yes.
I think there are a lot of people who watch these kinds of major technical indicators and market signals and they allocate capital around that.
They allocate a lot of capital around that.
And I think that this, it doesn't necessarily completely break all of the bears, but it invalidates a lot of the support for the bear thesis.
This takes out the high from May.
It's a higher high.
on the year for Bitcoin, I mean, relative to May, right?
Obviously, you know, excluding the early parts of the year, the price action where we were dumping.
So it's a clear establishment of a bullish uptrend in Bitcoin's price action, and it has gotten the attention of and flipped the opinions of a lot of bears.
And look, I want to say this too.
Ben Cowan is one of my favorite analysts in crypto.
I've been following him since he had like 10,000 viewers.
I've watched almost every video I think he's ever done on his channel.
I really respect him a lot.
He started buying in July as well, but he said that Bitcoin only hit...
the window that he was looking to buy for about five days.
So he didn't get quite the position that he wanted.
And now the market structure has changed.
And I think it's, it seems like Ben's going to be forced to make purchases at higher prices.
I think a lot of people are going to be in that camp, but, and this is the difference, right?
LG, like I was saying this before, when we were like, in the high 70s below 80 and unable to get through it for several weeks here um people were asking me like are you gonna buy more you're gonna buy more and i said well at this point it's best to just like kind of wait and see us get above that 82 level because that confirms the bullish breakout it confirms the bullish momentum and it's a much low risk purchase even though 78k is you know, a technically better price, it's a higher risk of a reversal happening if you're buying at 78 versus 82.
Now the risk is reversed.
Now the risk is Bitcoin goes over 90K before you get a position.
So now I think a lot of people are going to come off the sidelines and get a position because they're expecting Bitcoin to get over 90K much sooner than they can get off the sidelines.
So I think that that has flipped a lot of things for the bears.
It's invalidated a lot of the bear.
bare cases for Bitcoin here in the short term.
And I think it will bring a lot of capital off the sidelines.
I don't know how much capital has been bearish, but it's non-trivial.
And I think it's going to be, I think we're going to see some fireworks.
I think we're going to see Bitcoin show some strength here.
And I don't know if it'll happen in the short term or just like between now and the end of the year.
But I think the setup for a very bullish Q4 on a lot of these assets, on Ethereum, on Bitcoin, on many others, it just seems like there's going to be a lot of people bringing capital back to digital assets and allocating it, expecting a one to three year bull run.
And so it's going to be a lot of capital coming and coming with size and conviction to stay for a long time.
And that's just a really bullish setup to get over this level, this confirmation.
It shouldn't be overlooked how big of a change this is and how big of an indicator about which way the market is going this is.
One thing that I have learned from you and I'll reference Matt Hogan, who has been my favorite recurring guest on our show, especially when I was hosting the show, is he alluded to the idea that.
Bitcoin is able to sniff out liquidity issues way before anybody else.
It front runs things by so far that it's almost irrational.
And that's, I think, if you believe in that, at least I tie that back to what happened last week.
And even when I said at the start of the show, that it's like, listen, Bitcoin had been waiting for this uncertainty to clear, even though it was, and it was kind of certain what would happen anyways, but it just needed to get that out of the way.
Now there is certainty.
that there's nothing kind of in the way, in a sense, right?
Clarity Act was a big one.
And again, Matt said this so many times.
He's like, even if it fails, just have it fill right now so that we can just move on, right?
And that's been true so far.
So what I've started to wonder, John, is like, what are those next things for crypto?
What are those next catalysts?
Because these are two really big ones.
And obviously the rate hike was for the broader market.
There's another, the odds of another rate hike this year are like 85% right now on Polymarket.
So that seems like a sure bet, although it didn't seem like there was a rate hike going to happen almost like a month ago.
So that can change very quickly.
That's just an example.
What do you think the crypto market will start to price in at some point in terms of events of the next year?
I think that getting back over 100K would be extremely bullish.
And that's kind of the next thing on the menu as far as I'm concerned.
I think getting over 100K or getting rejected off 100K.
basically getting over 100k is going to be a big deal.
That is going to feel euphoric.
It's going to get a lot of headlines.
It's going to bring a lot of attention.
We're going to be all over CNBC.
And yeah, I think that's just like the next thing that I'm kind of watching for.
I don't know, man.
I haven't like I've been focused so long on the Clarity Act and the Federal Reserve that I haven't really looked over the horizon for what's next.
But we got, I mean, immediately after the Clarity Act failed, what was next was the SEC and the CFTC.
They delivered that within a 48 hour period.
And so now I think it's just about letting these things sort of play out.
I think the next big thing that could.
hit the markets, the next big stone being dropped in the water would be the Anthropic IPO.
That could pull some liquidity.
But for the most part, I think we got to get through the midterm in, I think it's five, six weeks now.
And then...
I think that gives the market a lot of certainty, but the market is also, I think already kind of figured out and priced in where it thinks the midterms are going to fall.
In other words, they think that Democrats are going to win control and they're kind of betting on that allocating for that.
So that's getting priced in as well.
And I think it's just a matter of like, okay, once we have that confirmation that's behind us, that uncertainty is gone and we kind of move forward from there.
But I don't know.
Yeah.
Between now and the end of the year, I think it's just about like letting some of these things play out, getting through the midterms and then you know, just letting the bull market continue to run.
93 on poly market right now, 93% chance Democrats take the house and 63% chance Democrats take the Senate.
But also to me, I also look at that as like, that's also, I guess, sort of bad news for crypto that has already baked it.
I don't know.
To me, I'm like, that's, that's, that's been known for so long that it's like, I'm like, that's baked in.
And if, and if there was a flip.
that it's even more bullish you know what i mean it's like even better um right and i think you know what i'm saying and i think that that those types of narratives at least the ones i'm alluding to those will develop over time because i think even how you almost dodge the dodge my question at the start with your answer is also telling that it's like there is kind of nothing for crypto right now there's it's it's what's the next major point that it's going to get rejected at is kind of the big question right now, because you kind of have this up trajectory.
And I'm seeing so many ideas across the timeline of like, well, there's this support here, there's this line here.
And it's like, at this point, I'm like, I don't think anybody knows that.
I think it's really foolish to say, hey, it's going to top here and come back down because we've just broken into a whole new territory.
Right.
At least from the TA perspective, it's a whole new territory.
So I don't think anybody can really be right of like, oh, you know, get out at 92.
And that's kind of what you're saying.
It's like, it's silly to take profit here.
It's like, you don't know what that next thing is.
Right.
We don't know what that next thing is because it's kind of an, it's kind of open ground at this point.
I am expecting a cascading series of incredibly market shifting, bullish headlines that the market doesn't react to because they go completely numb to it.
We're going to see, you know, headline after headline of so-and-so is launching perps, so-and-so is launching crypto, so-and-so is allocated, you know, X hundreds of billions of trillions of dollars to crypto.
You know, the United States has bought all of the, all of the Ethereum and will never sell it ever.
Like something like that, right?
Like we're just going to get more and more.
major institutions rolling out products and services around digital assets, moving their businesses to digital assets, to the digital asset economy, to the digital asset ecosystem.
There's going to be more capital, more attention, more demand.
And there's going to be so much of it so quickly that I think it's just going to, like I said, the market's just going to go numb to it.
So that's what I'm kind of expecting in terms of headlines.
We'll see.
I don't know.
I'm sure there'll be some bearish capitalists at some point in there too.
There's a lot of wars going on around the world.
That's a volatile thing.
You could shift markets.
So there's a lot of uncertainty about these things.
But because we have the clarity from this SEC and CFTC, I'm expecting a lot of new products and services, a lot of new allocation of capital.
I'm expecting a lot of those headlines to come out one after the other between now and the end of the year.
And I think that we're going to see a lot of attention on the wars between different prediction markets or binaries or whatever you want to call them as we get closer to midterms because a lot of people are going to be speculating on sports and on election outcomes and various things.
So there's just going to be a lot of stuff going on around that.
But it's all going to be just bullish catalysts and bullish headlines to the point where we just kind of go numb to all of it because it's just like every week it'll be like some big market moving thing that nobody cares about because there's just another one after another one after another one.
We need a TMZ corner, man, because there's a whole other podcast to do about prediction markets today that we will not get into.
Hopefully, one of them is still around by the midterms.
I'll put it that way.
It hasn't been regulated to death.
We'll see what happens.
John, we're going to jump into after hours here and look at your portfolio.
So people listening, again, if you want to check that out.
Click the link below.
Just pay a dollar.
It'll be posted around the same time as this podcast.
It'll be an extra 10 minutes where John walks us through his positions.
Otherwise, John, thank you for your thoughts, man.
A fantastic episode.
And I'm glad I get to share this moment with you.
I'm really happy to have you, LG.
This has been a hell of a ride.
So thank you for being here and doing this.
This was really fun.
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