# Bitcoin Short Squeeze and Institutional Flipping

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-08-25

## Transcript

I basically don't think we're going to get an all-time high in Bitcoin until something changes.
And that change could be one of a few things.
It could be...
Bitcoin has just finished its biggest short squeeze in history and is fighting to hold on to the gains.
Is the bull run back or is this rally going to fade?
Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that whichever direction Bitcoin goes from here, it's going to scare a lot of people.
I'm your host, John Gillen.
Today is Monday, August 24th.
We are going to be releasing this episode on Tuesday, August 25th.
And today we are joined by Charles Edwards.
Charles is the founder of Caprioli Investments, a systematic macro hedge fund specializing in Bitcoin and digital assets.
develops proprietary strategies from over 200 different on-chain and macro signals.
He is known for creating widely used on-chain models and being one of the most controversial analysts in Bitcoin, but also one of the best.
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Charles, how are you, sir?
I'm great.
Good to be here, John.
Charles, I saw on Twitter, you just got back from vacation to see the carnage on the charts.
And I wanted to start the conversation there.
We've seen this huge, huge short squeeze.
$5 billion in shorts liquidated, I think is the estimate right now.
Largest short liquidation in history in crypto.
Over $500 billion added to the market cap of crypto.
What's your initial reaction to this?
And what are your thoughts on this big move we've seen?
My initial reaction would be, it would have been nicer if it happened a week later when I was more readily at the desk.
I mean, yeah, generally it's obviously great.
I commented or tweeted just about a week before it happened that institutions have finally flipped to being net buyers of Bitcoin.
And basically that's the backdrop where all the good moves in Bitcoin happens is when...
by institutions that's etfs treasury companies are buying more than bitcoin is being mined um so we're now net about 150 of positive buying as opposed to the the net supply to the market um and i think yeah obviously the big drivers of that move were the treasury change um the the bond buybacks and also probably and possibly more importantly trump saying that he'd consider buying Bitcoin and also dropping things like bringing hype into America and stuff like that.
So yeah, the technical move is great.
A level I've mentioned quite a bit in recent months is 65 and 70k and we've broken both of those pretty convincingly.
And that's pretty much all you need to kind of flip technical bias, in my opinion, to be bullish.
So as long as those kind of levels hold, 70k in particular, I think you can't be too bearish in terms of the technical side of things.
and at the same time the last few months uh i think as we probably spoke about last time we we caught up the fundamentals on chain data has been kind of in a value zone not the deep deep value of price cycle bottoms but definitely in a value zone which means that this could very well be the bottom but we can dive into the different aspects of that today I guess.
Yeah.
Well, I do want to dive into a lot of things, but I do want to start with the first thing you mentioned, which was that on August 13th, you tweeted that institutions had flipped to becoming net buyers of Bitcoin for the first time since May of this year.
I'd love for you to expand on that.
And are you seeing that buying accelerating or just any change in that after this major short squeeze that we've seen?
Yeah, I mean, I can I can just.
pull it on chart on on screen perhaps then it has been accelerating um for the last sort of month or so since really yeah mid-july it's kind of want to start accelerating upwards in terms of the total buying of etfs and treasuries uh it's pretty much been led by etfs as we know treasuries like sailor were selling bitcoin at the bottom which turned out to be a positive thing, I think, for price.
So yeah, it's been accelerating.
The blue line here is the total buying of institutions.
The green is the ETFs and the orange is the treasuries.
If it's above this sort of gray line here, that means it's positive, as in greater than zero.
It's above the red line, that's the Bitcoin mine supply.
That's when you've got net sort of buying pressure.
And this chart down the bottom, the oscillator flips green when it's blue minus red.
So yeah, we're at about 160% of daily mine supplies being bought up.
by institutions.
It tends to be that the ETFs being more liquid move earlier and they can provide an earlier signal as they have this time and the trend is definitely going up.
So, yeah, I mean, that's good for now.
For me, as long as this is green and it's greater than...
the red line that's when all the positive things in bitcoin price history happens in in basically all the cycles in the last uh five or six years so okay so you're saying that you're seeing this uh buying from the etfs as the leading indicator in that scene follow through on the price action on the charts.
Talk to me more about some of these key levels.
Why 70k?
Is there a specific technical reason why that level is important to you?
And yeah, like expand me a little bit more on, you know, what you are watching for, for an indication that Bitcoin is going to either go higher or retrace here.
So it doesn't have to necessarily, in terms of the buying, it doesn't have to necessarily be a leading indicator.
That's with a lot of these on-chain metrics as well, like even hash ribbons.
Sometimes it can be a bit lagging the hash room's had a buy signal as well by the way about a few days about a week ago um but sometimes they're lagging sometimes they're leading but they're generally you want to look for the confluence of them happening and generally the good thing happened the good things happen to price when you've got that backdrop of buying in terms of technicals uh the the biggest levels for me uh all the most important ones are to look at the monthly uh levels the prior all-time high being 2021 being at 60.
61k so we kind of revisited that as pretty much the low of this year so that would be a level you'd expect to hold if we if we lost 60 on a weekly monthly time scale that would be would have been very concerning as long as we're kind of above 60 that's net okay but to kind of get that positive confluence that you've got a bit of a trend reversal happening you want to see some positive movement upwards And then the next level from there is 71K.
And that's basically where we had that six-month cluster of price not going anywhere in March 2024.
So we broke above 71K.
I'd want to see that hold, obviously, this month being August.
It would be pretty surprising if it didn't, given we're at 78.8 right now.
We could definitely revisit it.
It's not to say we're not going back there to 71K.
um as long as it kind of holds in a monthly basis at this point i think it's you know a positive trend confirmation that would probably put in a low for the time being at least Guys, I hate to alarm you, but this is your last chance.
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Bitcoin right now, Charles, is trading just a few dollars off of 79K, and it's been holding around in that range for a while at this point.
A lot of people, I think, are asking, where's the entry?
And they're looking for a place to get a position here.
A lot of people were caught offside, out of position on the market.
If you were somebody watching these markets right now looking for a point to get in, what would be attractive to you?
Would you wait?
Would you rush in now?
What do you think about that question right now?
It's not an easy one to answer.
Look, if you look at, there's been a few charts going around Twitter as well, but if you look at where you've had periods of massive rallies, like we just had 20% in a week, or even in like three or four days, especially when you've been coming out of any kind of down draw, it's basically always been near the cycle lows.
So that would suggest we could have a scenario like January 2023, potentially.
I think given the size of the move and some other metrics I'm looking at, it's probably more like mid-2023.
So that's definitely great.
But at the same time, we also have a fair bit of overextension in derivatives markets right now, as in the highest we've seen in a few years.
So what I mean by that is, I'm just looking at some data on my screen, but we track on our capital.com charts, what I call heater.
It's basically summation of funding rates, options, premiums, and futures index as well.
And basically we weight them, market cap, and you can get an overall view of the futures market.
And it's now at a level, pretty much actually the highest on record.
But it's comparable with when we've had big moves in October 2023, January 2024.
We had a rally in August 2020, which kind of got fully reversed, if anyone remembers.
But it tends to be that these kind of moves happen when either you're at the very start or early stages of like a significant major move that's happening.
So we could have further to go.
Or you're kind of, if it's happened over, if this kind of extension in funding rates and...
And derivatives markets happened after an extended period or it's happened multiple times in recent months.
That's a really big red flag.
So it's not necessarily a red flag yet.
It actually just means there's a lot of capital getting interest in the market.
And that's good.
But it is quite extreme.
And essentially for me, it means you want to see price continue to grind up from here.
If price was to drop a few thousand and these funding rates and...
options skew, et cetera, was to stay elevated.
And you're basically not getting rewarded for that premium of cost you're paying to have those positions open.
That's when things start to get really dicey.
So we're not at that point yet.
Obviously, price continues to go up basically every day.
And it doesn't have to go up every day for that to hold.
But you want to see over a daily, weekly period, price grinding up from here to kind of validate all of that basically extra risk and premium in the derivatives markets.
Yeah, I mean, all this data is very dynamic that I'm talking to right now.
So, you know, we could dip, it could reset, and the trend could continue.
But it's just something to be wary of.
Like, generally speaking, you want to buy, I'll just pull that chart up on screen, the heat and fire, so you can get a bit of visual.
But you generally would prefer to buy when it's green, which means people are net short or bearish like we had in mid-2021.
We also had a long period of that.
or not long, multiple periods of it in recent months where HEDA was in the green zone, 0.2.
So you can see right now it's literally like the highest ever, I think, on the short term.
It's a pretty common thing right now, you know?
That's true, yeah.
I mean, the size of the move and the technical impact of it is major.
And with all these things, at the end of the day, if Trump says tomorrow, The US government is now buying Bitcoin.
None of these metrics matter.
Who cares where derivatives are at and all that sort of thing because we're going way, way higher.
So all this is you have to keep relative and that's why I like to think of the confluence of the data in terms of on-chain and things like this, derivatives markets.
Right now, not yet a cause concern.
I guess my underlining thinking here is that I wouldn't be surprised if not much happens on the front of what Trump's saying in terms of...
taking action you know we had the bitcoin strategic reserve he pumped that up for months coming to the election and some positive policy came out of it to not sell what they have but effectively there was no action on it right um there's no real commitment to buying bitcoin and what he said in recent days i think is definitely positive um but you know if we don't see follow through in the next couple of months that would be probably concerning but like i said if he says next week or tomorrow we're buying bitcoin or we've got this new strategy to buy some amount of bitcoin none of these metrics will matter if he doesn't these metrics become more and more relevant every day so that's kind of the way to think about it most of the time in any investing throughout the uh you want to look at a confluence of data but there's some periods of time when you only care about one like a trigger event it could be the fed pivoting it could be trump buying bitcoin right like so um Yeah, right now the market's playing into that happening and it would be amazing if it did, but to be confirmed, definitely.
And I think probably to get back to your question where to enter, I think if you believe in Bitcoin long term, you probably definitely want to have some exposure now and you might be able to time it and get a little bit of a dip in the coming days or weeks.
Otherwise, you may want to wait.
for some other confirmation such as Trump confirming they're buying.
But I mean, if that happens, we're going to go up probably 50% in a day.
So I think these are pretty wild.
This is a thing that I think a lot of people are struggling with.
The volatility in Bitcoin was so low for so long, and this move has been so violent that I think we do need a little bit more time for some of these things to digest and some of the smoke to clear and kind of figure out what the market structure is now.
It makes it really difficult to get a position.
You talked about Trump's conversation in the White House.
Another thing that a lot of people have pointed to as a major trigger event for this short squeeze has been Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besson's comments about you know, intervening in the bond market effectively, doubling the long duration buybacks and shortening the duration of the outstanding US debt.
This kind of signals a general posture, a willingness to weaken the dollar to support the markets with liquidity.
Talk to me about this and how important this is for the backdrop for Bitcoin going into the rest of this year and just the outlook on that.
Yeah, I mean, when it happened, obviously extremely bullish, it triggered the start of this move.
Now, though, and when it happened, rates dropped quite a bit.
But since then, if you just look at the bond market, it's basically ignored it.
Like rates have gone right back to where they were before it happened.
So essentially, the bond market saying we don't buy it and rates really haven't moved much.
It's not basically not having much of it.
It's like a drop in the bucket.
It's not having much impact.
I think the bigger thing is the messaging it sends is that the Treasury and.
probably the broader government is willing to step in if they have to, to reduce the cost of debt, maybe to trigger inflation or anything.
Inflation in general brings down the debt burden for the government, so it's good long-term for them.
So all those kind of things, anything easing, inflationary, cutting rates, anything like that will obviously be good for Bitcoin because Bitcoin trades relative to it.
If you can have a bond and get 5% or more a year with, theoretically zero risk, topic of discussion for another day, then people, you know, that's attractive compared to Bitcoin potentially at different times.
So like it's all these markets trade relatively to each other at the end of the day.
So I think the messaging was the most important.
The impact was in hindsight now so far negligible.
And we're just, again, it's like what Trump said about we might buy Bitcoin.
We need to see follow through of something, I think.
If like, if Besson does nothing for the next six months and Trump does nothing on Bitcoin or crypto the next six months, then I don't think these moves are going to be significant.
We might kind of slowly grind up over time or, you know, kind of range around this region.
But I don't think it's going to cause major, major moves unless there's some kind of follow through on either of those fronts.
Okay, so it's a positive messaging, but you're still watching to see what the action is to follow through on that.
Another question I wanted to ask you about the macro backdrop.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to speak on Friday, Kevin Warsh, and he's been kind of going out of his way to not really say too much of anything to the markets.
And a lot of people are speculating about what the Fed's interest rate policy decision is going to be in September.
Are you paying attention to the Fed's moves here?
Do you think there's a risk of them raising rates, lowering rates, leaving them where they are?
What's your outlook on the monetary policy side of things here?
Yeah, I mean, very difficult guy to read.
He doesn't give anything away, which, yeah, I don't know.
I think I like the concept of, even if it changes forward guidance that Fed's used to give, and they're trying to move away from that to basically give you nothing and let the market price it.
markets hate volatility and uncertainty and at least forward guidance gives you some level of certainty in a completely uncertain world of course but yeah so very very challenging I think the last time I looked we could probably pull it up now but the the market was pricing in a couple of hikes this year yeah so the current rate target rate for the Fed is 3.5 3.75 and Okay, it's about, yeah, we're probably getting some hikes this year.
Basically, 70% chance we're getting at least one or more before the end of the year.
So that's kind of what the market's expecting.
That's kind of my base case until we get more information.
We've had some positive trends in recent, or some positive news in recent months that inflation was more stable, but a lot of it comes down to the war in Iran and oil prices, which remain fairly elevated today.
So, yeah, I mean, I'm assuming one based on what the market's saying, but even for that to change based on outcomes in the war, pretty much, I think that'll be the driving factor.
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Charles, I want to ask you about your thoughts on the altcoin space.
We talked about Bitcoin.
We talked about sort of the macro setup here.
The entire altcoin market has been...
kind of going crazy as well as a result of this short squeeze we've seen here.
Obviously, the performance on Ethereum, XRP, a lot of other alts, Hyperliquid has been just kind of wild.
What are your thoughts on that?
And what's your forecast for the altcoin space in this macro landscape for the rest of 2026 here?
Yeah, I mean, if this Bitcoin trend continues, which for now would be my base case, then very positive.
um especially uh trump mentioning hype as soon as that happened i was uh looking to scramble to get some hype i've talked about hyper in a few podcasts recently but i i it's a really attractive coin for a couple of reasons the two main ones are the tokenomics and the the revenue growth rate essentially any coin that has hard tokenomics like bitcoin effectively eth these days uh where you know a controlled supply you don't have um unlocks and overhangs and all that sort of thing from vcs dumping on the market which is 99 of coins that's great uh so hype they buy back 99 of their revenue or whatever it is every day um that's also really good because you can then value it like a traditional equity and at the same time their revenue is growing really strongly they're the only place so far and who knows how long that will last but where you can effectively trade us equities without any kind of kyc so it's got a few things going it's you know a product that's moving very fast innovating really fast and you can value it like i said and if you value it before this big move it had a p of you know you could put a p on it of circa 2025 now it's moved quite a lot um in the last few days so that ratio will be a lot higher but the other factor is what trump said And these days, if you pretty much just track any ticker that Trump has mentioned in the last 6-12 months, it's gone up a lot.
You know, he mentioned Dell and multiple other assets in the past, and they all went on big runs.
That's not anything to predict, but the market definitely does like it when an asset has government support by Trump.
So it's got a few driving forces behind it and technical breakout now.
um multiple of these old coins in general to the broader question uh are seeing kind of similar similarly positive technicals where they've revisited major supports they've been down big drawdowns and they've kind of broken back above some kind of key level it's kind of fits that criteria um athena for me also um ccash fits that criteria uh all of that said I think so for me, like I, there's definitely a case in my opinion to hold some altcoins here.
If you believe the Bitcoin trend will hold all that said, and I've talked about this a lot, a lot of the risks this cycle as in going forward for me in crypto haven't been addressed and that's the quantum risk.
It's the AI risk of, of more and more define altcoins being hacked.
So I'd be nervous to be too involved in DeFi on a personal level in terms of, you know, staking and flipping and using multiple chains and bridges and all that sort of stuff.
That's not really a feel I'd want to be dabbling in in the next few years.
Yeah, so that makes it complicated.
I think generally I have a bullish position on all these things right now, but I don't have the same excitement as you might have had in sort of 2020 or 2017 or something where you didn't have these kind of...
overhang issues of hacking risk from AI, of quantum hacking risk, et cetera.
So of things like Bitcoin miners, 100% of them pivoting to AI, literally.
So there's just some unusual dynamics we have to consider.
I think we've seen generally with Bitcoin over all its history that the volatility compresses, the drawdowns and the upside compresses.
And perhaps it just means we have a more steady, less volatile cycle from here like cycle bottoms and tops are typically defined by volatility like we've seen but doesn't mean it needs to continue obviously i think it will if we get major news from the u.s government but apart from that you know we we could just have a kind of a a more gradual rise in markets at a time.
So Charles, I want to get your thoughts on this because this is something I think a lot of people in crypto have been wondering about.
You have been flagging a lot of concerns and hacks and risks that are posed by AI.
You tweeted about one protocol called Harmony One that was riding high in the 2021 bull run, but suffered a hack and it's kind of...
basically been wiped out by AI-assisted hacks and attacks.
On the other side of that, there's been a lot of speculation about crypto being, or a huge demand for crypto being driven by the rise of agentic finance and more AI agents using stablecoins and other things that drive demand for crypto.
How do you think about the sort of double-sided nature of AI and crypto here, and how are you navigating that as an investor?
Yeah, good question.
Definitely uncharted waters.
We've seen hacks in general rise in crypto quite a bit in the last couple of years, trends going up.
We've seen some coins be completely wiped out.
We saw just a few weeks ago Coldcard, which was three or four years ago considered one of the most secure self-custody hard wallets, be basically wiped out or no longer trusted, which puts it in the bin.
I think these kind of things are going to continue as AI gets more powerful and you've got more bad actors utilizing.
incredible intelligence so for me personally it means i want to be a bit careful with what i interact with um obviously there's no guarantees in anything you do but if you can simplify your attack frontier that's probably good so you know you don't want to probably be staking and bridging on a huge chain of of defile coins in at infinitum and Yeah, so you want to probably stay with the more trusted, bigger protocols that you would assume, generally speaking, are deeply looking at their security using AI to help them enhance their security, etc.
That's the first thing for me.
But, you know, we just don't know where this is all going to go in the next few years.
The hope is generally that security will keep up and that security companies and protocols and everything in general will be able to utilize AI to...
to reinforce itself before it's compromised.
But we've seen that doesn't always work.
In terms of agents, yeah, I mean, the agentic world is obviously exploding.
It's not going to get bigger from here.
At some point, the assumption is there that they're going to interact with finance and banking rails and then crypto would be better for them because you don't need to have necessarily KYC accounts and that kind of thing.
I'm kind of neutral on this.
I think...
Yes, there will definitely be use cases for it.
The extent of it will probably be dictated a bit by government.
Like if Trump was president forever, I think they'd probably be supportive of allowing that kind of thing.
Like, for example, Hyperliquid, he's recently said they're going to bring it into America, but basically no other president would.
do or care about that um and in the past we've seen banking rails into crypto in general for traditional banks be completely shut down just a few years ago so i think it does depend on the the broader political environment at the same time i also wonder how much ai will care like for example if i'm every you assume the end of the day each agent or or ai is in some form or another under the control of a human right in theory.
So like if I want to have agents to do work for me, build applications, communicate or what have you, then in theory, I could give it access to a certain bank account if I wanted, give it API access and it could probably do transactions that way.
So you don't necessarily have to have crypto, I think.
It does make things easier, does make things 24-7 and faster and there's definitely all the benefits of crypto in it, but it's not.
critical i would say at this point but yeah i can definitely see a world where like agents in general are fully or primarily utilizing crypto rails or stables and that kind of thing in the future but i don't know that it's a huge driving factor in the near term so the next 12 24 months of price action if you know what i mean okay so there's some short-term risks from ai there's some long-term bullish drivers but not so much something you think is going to be majorly moving the needle in the short run here.
But I do want to get your thoughts on the next 12 months here, because I think a lot of people are wondering what happens to Bitcoin in the rest of 2026.
Do you think we are going to be above or below 100K on Bitcoin by the end of 2026?
Which direction do you think we're going to see here?
100K is a hard one for me.
We're not that far from it.
We're last week's move away from it.
So in theory, if we did last week again, we'd basically be there.
I basically don't think we're going to get an all-time high in Bitcoin until something changes.
And that change could be one of a few things.
It could be the US government buying, officially buying Bitcoin or saying they're going to buy Bitcoin.
It could be a more major move by the Treasury General account, right?
Whether, you know, bond buying or some other format, which is more powerful impact.
It could be the Bitcoin core team saying this is our two-year roadmap to solve quantum computing risk, right?
Any of these, I think we're going to see huge repricing in Bitcoin up because it de-risks things and drives demand.
Until then, there's that uncertainty in the air.
I've said in recent months as well that quantum threat in general has been priced in.
And it's actually a positive price catalyst now because we've done nothing effectively, despite what people say in the industry, we've done nothing.
So if there's any movement on that, even a plan by people of relevance in adjusting the code, that's going to result in positive price appreciation as a risk is de-risked.
So there's one of a few handful of things here which could really just shoot price up and just smash new all-time high and probably go way higher.
If we don't get one of those kind of major things, though, it's not my base case.
I can see us kind of trending up to the sort of 100K region, possibly going higher than 100K, maybe even getting just around the all-time highs.
But I don't really see us setting like a tangible new all-time high until something changes from the macro perspective or the policy perspective or the...
Bitcoin central perspective.
Okay.
So generally, basically, I'm bullish, but not targeting something really big right now until something changes.
Okay, but this, and we have to hold 70k.
Yeah.
Right, right.
Okay, so to summarize kind of your thoughts that I'm hearing you say, you want to see Bitcoin continue to hold the move that it's made, you want to see some sort of like, catalyst to justify another move higher.
But until then, there's a vague bullish bias going into the end of the year and we have to kind of wait and see, follow through on some of these other things.
Anything to add to that?
Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily say vague.
I'd say like I'm positioned long, right?
So it's just that, yeah, there's so many, like at all these different levels, different variables and data to consider.
It's just that, yeah, I, you know, if it.
we need to see what happens when we get hired you know what i mean so like if we like i can see us trending into the 90s over the next weeks and months in this year comfortably if you know if we in two months time or three months time nothing's happened on um you know from the treasury account nothing's happened from actually considering buying bitcoin from the presidential perspective and the fed then hikes because they're expected to hike the next few uh three to four months right then probably we're not going to be heading to around 100 right so it really depends on how that data unfolds right now we've got all the things you'd want to see in place we just need to see follow through on those kind of fundamental factors without them uh i've leaned towards the technicals to kind of manage risk and you know losing 70k i think that would be pretty bearish.
And as long as we're above that, I think it makes sense to have a bullish bias to the, you know, to the high five digits and then assess as information comes out.
We will reassess as information comes out.
Charles Edwards, thank you so much for being on the Milk Road Show.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Yeah, no, it's my pleasure.
As always, John, thanks for the good chat.
Yeah, you can follow me on X at x.com slash caprioli.io, or you can check out our website, caprioli.com.
It's our hedge fund there, but also analytics and charts platform if you're into the data and metrics.
All right, well, Charles, I look forward to catching up with you again later in this bull run and somewhere in the high five figures and maybe higher.
But until then, take care of yourself and we'll see you next time.
Hopefully much higher.
Thanks, John.
Thank you all for joining us.
I hope you all learned something today.
So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milk Road Show.
Thanks for being here, everyone.
Bye.
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