# Crypto Bull Market Catalysts and Macro Shifts

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-08-21

## Transcript

Do you think Bitcoin is going to be over or under 100k by the end of this year?
Over.
After months of near zero volatility, Bitcoin has finally broken out above 72K.
Ethereum is up over 20%.
I can't believe it.
You can't believe it.
Is this the start of a new bull market or are we going to see this rally fade into the fall?
Hello and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that nothing says crypto is back like a $3 billion short squeeze on Bitcoin.
I'm your host, John Gillum.
Today is Thursday, August 20th.
And today we are joined by David Duong.
David is the former head of institutional research for Coinbase, one of the best analysts in all of crypto, and a longtime friend of this show, Milk Road.
So if you are excited for this conversation today, make sure you like and subscribe.
We're going to talk Bitcoin, we're going to talk macro, we're going to talk about everything.
A reminder, our podcast today is free, and that would not be possible without our wonderful partners at Sabre.Money, the stable coin payments platform built for Asia.
So keep an ear out for more information about them later in the episode.
But for now, David, welcome back to the Milk Road Show.
How are you?
I'm good.
Thanks, John.
I'm really excited to have you on the show today.
You have a wealth of knowledge about crypto and you're a great guy to talk to on a day like today.
The whole market cap of crypto is up about 10% in a single day.
Like I said, Bitcoin's over 72K.
Ethereum's pushing 2400.
Solana's in like the mid 80s.
It just, the whole market has blown up today.
Is this a sign that we are back in a full crypto bull market or do you think that there's reason to doubt that this rally is going to hold here?
So I am optimistic like for the last eight or nine months or so, I've been pretty bearish on what's happening in crypto and the altcoin market didn't have any life to it.
Bitcoin kind of either tracked lower or sideways and it just wasn't really going where there wasn't a lot of vol for a lot of traders to kind of capitalize on.
I think things are changing.
This is probably the first.
kind of sign that, you know, after a lot of sideways action, we're finally ready to actually move higher in Bitcoin.
I said this on a different podcast, but I was bullish.
I think like, you know, we were having this spirited debate with someone with another panelist where, you know, they thought that this is just going to keep moving weaker for the next, you know, three months, six months, ad venetum, whatever.
And I don't think that's going to be the case.
Certainly, it feels like markets already, like all the sellers that wanted to sell Bitcoin had already kind of, you know, been in there.
So there's a lot of seller exhaustion, I think, in the market.
But that's not what led to this breakout, right?
I think the breakout that we saw more recently has to do with the short squeeze that you kind of referred to.
The fact is, like, we had a few narratives kind of going on.
You had like Besant, you know, doing this like double the size of the buyback, which hasn't started yet, by the way.
It's not going to start until like early September.
But you also have, like the meeting at the White House, where I think there was some rumors going around, which I don't think have been substantiated yet.
But some that suggested that, you know, the government was going to step in and buy Bitcoin.
I feel like it was stuff like that that kind of contributed to this move.
So it's hard to say that people have fully reengaged in this rather than the fact that, you know, this is just kind of a squeeze.
I don't think it's I do think it's meaningful rather.
But.
You know, I think we need to be cautious about how sustainable this is going to be.
But I do think that the optimism should rather I think Bitcoin should start to rally or really kind of sustain a rally probably towards the end of this quarter or the beginning of Q4.
Like, I really think that's the good timeline, especially after we see what happens in Jackson Hole.
Okay, so there's a lot of time that could pass between now and that start of Q4 target you set there.
In between now and then, are you expecting sort of like the bottom to fall out and get like another huge correction?
Or do you think we sort of like chop between now and then?
I know this is a little bit like a hard question to answer, but I think a lot of people are wondering if we're going to get that final bear market ending capitulation candle on Bitcoin, or if it really is a sign that we've put in a bottom.
And we're going to keep chopping, but chopping higher overall.
What are your thoughts on that?
Yeah, I think we've already seen the bottom.
You know, I think the bottom was somewhere between that 55 to 60 kind of level.
And, you know, I hear the same thing you do.
Like a lot of analysts calling for this one more washout.
And, you know, frankly, when you start to see what we're seeing right now, which is like structural buyers come in, like ETF inflow is coming back.
You know, like some of that capitulation already happened.
That was what we saw from X strategy, for example.
Frankly, for me, it was more of a sign of resilience.
The fact that, you know, you saw Bitcoin selling coming from Michael Saylor and it was still either holding flat or doing a little bit better.
So I'm less concerned about this kind of like mystical final dump.
And I'm more focused on whether the buyers that showed up with the last few days are actually going to stay in the market.
I think capitulation is just a story that we tell ourselves after the fact, but the signal is telling me that those four sellers have definitely run out.
And I think the flows are going to start turning positive consistently over the next six to eight weeks.
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Is there a price catalyst for Bitcoin or for crypto overall that you're kind of like keeping your eye on as we get into some of these fall months here?
Like the Clarity Act vote has been rescheduled for September 15th.
And some people are saying, you know, if that surprises everybody in passes, that can be a big catalyst.
Is there anything else that you're watching for between now and like in Q4 that you think might really kind of move markets in a positive direction?
The clarity could be one because the market's probably seeing like 20% odds that's actually going to happen.
So it's very one sided.
I mean, the good news is if it doesn't pass, then it probably won't have very big impact.
It will not have a very big impact on the market.
But I would say if it can clear and hold, if Bitcoin can clear and hold above the recent range highs, which is just kind of like 65 to 70.
I mean, we've crossed through like to the 70 kind of level.
But if it actually follows through with more volume, then that for me would be technical confirmation that we're actually in a new trading regime.
So for me, I mean, the timing is a lot more flow and macro driven.
It's, you know, it's not going to be it's not going to follow a calendar for sure.
Like, I think that the macro environment definitely supports it.
So I think that sustained move higher into Q4 is certainly plausible if we continue seeing this persistent ETF inflow.
if the raised liquidities, like, I mean, if these things don't tighten aggressively, which it does not appear to be, then I think that we can definitely keep moving up.
Okay, so you think that the bottom should be in and you think we're going to directionally go higher here.
You've talked about the macro backdrop a few times, so I want to unpack that a little bit more.
The US Treasury announced that they're going to be doubling their buybacks on some of their longer duration debt, the 10-year, the 30-year, and then issuing shorter duration debt.
And the market has reacted to this very positively, to say the least.
But I wonder if you could just tell us a little bit about what's actually happening here, why this matters, and just what crypto investors should know about what's going on here.
Well, it's interesting because it did have a very large impact on the markets in the day that it was announced.
But as we're recording this, which is on Thursday, you can even see that a lot of things are moving back to prior levels, in part because I think some people are calling Besson's bluff to some extent.
And that's not wrong.
There is definitely an activist treasury move here to kind of manage the long end of the curve.
And Besson basically has had it, right?
He hates kind of like seeing people try to try to push this.
He hates hearing these headlines of like, this is the highest yield on 10 year, 30 year bond since blah, blah, blah date.
And like those headlines, definitely, I'm sure are grading on his nerves.
So he's stepping in here and he's trying to put a bid in the long end of the curve.
But you can see that.
a lot of those yield declines are starting to kind of get eroded again.
Like people are once again kind of talking about, oh, are we going to see the 10 year back at like 475?
Could you cross five again?
Like, you know, like honestly, I did think that we kind of saw the peak in like long end bond yields already, which would be great for risk, great for equity is great for crypto.
But now you're getting these critics who are saying like, oh, this could be some like just.
debt reshuffling.
They're just buying some of the old bonds.
They're still going to issue new ones.
So the large deficits are going to continue, which honestly, I think should work in the favor of Bitcoin in particular.
But we've seen that in the past 12 months or so, it's been kind of mixed in response to that kind of fiscal deficit question.
That narrative could kind of come back, I think, in the September, October period where the Treasury is actually responding to the market here.
And again, it's just more of a timeline thing, right?
We've already seen like Bitcoin sell off by like 50%.
So for a lot of people, it's much cheaper now.
And a lot of people are still kind of out of this market.
Liquidity hasn't fully kind of come back.
But once people step back into markets again after the summer holidays, they're going to raise these questions about, well, how does this sit with what Warsh is doing with the Fed, for example?
Like, is this a stronger signal or a weaker signal?
So I still think that, you know, right now, like people are trying to say like, well, maybe Besson is just talking this book and he's just kind of like trying to do verbal intervention inside this market.
Maybe like what he wants to buy back in 30 year, 10 year bonds isn't like large enough to actually make a dent.
But.
I wouldn't discount that the Treasury actually has more firepower if they want to do this.
And they have a direct line to wash if they need the Fed to do something as well.
So I would take the other side of it.
Gotcha.
OK, so what I'm hearing you say is that Scott Besant is trying to get a hold of the shape of the yield curve and the market is still kind of calling his bluff.
And I think it's speculation at this point who wins that tug of war and what his next move is going to be.
But the end result seems to be that the market's pretty convinced that the debasement trade, as it's been called, is back.
And gold and Bitcoin are rallying pretty hard here.
Do you think that that is sort of like a sustainable trend?
In other words, is the debasement trade back?
And do you think that the.
the rally we've seen and like the fundamental structural support on these assets is likely to be sustained kind of no matter who wins this arm wrestling match.
Yeah, I should be really clear.
I do not think the debasement trade is back.
And I do not think that's what we're seeing in these markets right now.
I think we are seeing that gold has rallied like over 10% over the last few days.
Bitcoin is kind of coming back.
And so it's easy to assign the narrative of just like, well, look at what the Treasury is doing.
Like, like, obviously, like, we're now $40 trillion in terms of the burden that we actually have in this country.
Like, this is clearly what's contributing to this.
I think this is more people kind of looking at this and it's kind of saying, hey, gold's back at 4000.
That looks pretty cheap to take a punt.
You know, crypto hasn't done anything for months.
It's, you know, 60% off of if it's like last price.
Let's, you know, take a chance and actually like, so I think that's kind of where we're all with markets.
I think this is very much a trader's market.
You know, I used to have this debate with people like I used to be head of Latin America research over at HSBC.
And I would argue with the other department heads because they always search for these narratives and, you know, it's more economically focused.
It's more economically oriented.
That's how we're trained, right?
We're like, we're taught to kind of be like, well, what's the story of like, of going this kind of stuff.
And honestly, I would always, I would be very pragmatic about these things.
And I think that's kind of where we are now.
I'm just like, guys, it's a discount on 50%.
Like, why wouldn't you do?
Or like, or like gold is, you know, back to like the levels that people were trying to get in the last time, like gold started rallying.
Now, as a result, do I think that these things are going to, at least in the case of gold, do I think gold is going to rally back to the same levels we saw previously?
Probably not.
I think people are going to take a punt on it.
They're going to try to kind of push it higher.
And it will move like directionally.
I have no doubt that that's probably where it's going to go.
But we won't see the same kind of levels of appreciation that we saw previously.
I mean, similarly for Bitcoin, I don't know what the level is.
Like, honestly, like I'm not trying to pick the level.
I think it's more for me, like what I do know is, you know, the direction, which is higher and the timeline, which I do think is going to come.
post-Jackson Hole problem when people can't come back from after Labor Day in early September.
It's going to coincide with the Treasury movement, which is going to start from, I think, September 9th all the way through the U.S.
elections.
So I think that that period is going to look really attractive for risk in general.
And Bitcoin's going to sit in the smack dab in the middle of that, and people are going to be like, oh, yeah, it's going to be attractive.
Now, at that point, are you going to sign the narratives around it?
Maybe.
You know, like people are going to be like, oh, it's a four year cycle.
The four year cycle is over.
Or like it's basically the start of a new four year cycle.
And that's why Bitcoin's rallying.
Are they going to say like, oh, it's a debasement trade, all this kind of stuff.
But honestly, I think it's really a matter of like trend and momentum more than anything else.
Okay, so you think it's not related to what's going on with the Treasury.
It's just Bitcoin and gold got to bargain basement prices, and the market decided to finally step in and take advantage of that.
I think that's a really healthy perspective.
And we'll see, right?
There's a lot still playing out with all of this, and things can change fast.
You've talked about...
Jackson Hole a couple of times.
I want to get your thoughts on this.
The Federal Reserve decided to hold rates constant at their last meeting.
Kevin Warsh, who is the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on August 28th.
For those who don't know what David's been referring to, there is an annual economic policy symposium that happens in Jackson Hole, and it's customary for the Fed chairman to make some remarks and sort of like give some thoughts on the economy, on monetary policy, and just what's going on there.
What are you expecting Kevin Warsh to say at the symposium?
Why do you think this is such an important speech for him?
Yeah, the title of his speech tells us nothing, by the way.
I think the title of the speech is like financial innovation, blah, blah, blah, blah, implications for payments policy.
Honestly, I'm not expecting him to reveal too much in part because he's largely said he really hates Ford guidance.
He doesn't like providing heavy Ford guidance.
I'm sure he's going to come back in and keep making that 2% inflation commitment.
I think I said the same thing last time I was on your show like a month ago.
He's very much wedded to this idea that he wants to get across that he cares a lot about inflation.
But does that mean he's going to react to it if inflation breaks out of the target range?
I mean, these are all the questions that people have.
But I think that he's more than likely going to frame rates.
balance sheet issues within the context of his commitment to inflation um he's gonna admit that maybe bond yields have been under some pressure so he's kind of watching out for it but honestly i don't think that you know his debut at jackson hole is gonna be a huge rate signal i don't think he's gonna you know, frame the inflation fight in a way that people are going to be satisfied with.
He's just going to talk about what the Fed toolkit is going to be like.
He's probably, you know, going to disappoint anyone who's expecting easy money.
But at the same time, you know, he's.
Probably not going to sound terribly hawkish.
That would be kind of my take on this.
Gotcha.
OK, so you're expecting some comments, but not really a whole lot of forward guidance out of this.
I think that's pretty consistent with what he's been doing.
And you're right.
He really has been pounding the table on the committee will deliver price stability over and over again.
So I'm sure we'll get more of that, too.
Do you think that the Federal Reserve is going to be able to keep a lid on inflation here without hiking interest rates?
There's been a lot of speculation that there would be some kind of a rate hike at some point this year.
That hasn't happened.
And yet it seems like they're trying to avoid doing that.
But how do you read this?
Do you think we're going to get a rate hike before the end of the year?
Or do you think they'll be able to control inflation without doing that?
No, I don't think we're going to get a rate hike before the end of the year.
And if we did, it would be more of a one-off insurance hike, like what the European Central Bank did earlier this year.
I wouldn't think that this is a series of hikes, for example, in part because...
This economy doesn't necessarily need it right now.
I think that a lot of people worry about energy and other things.
Well, first of all, that's not part of core PCE.
That's not what the Fed actively pays attention to.
You know, I think that for me, already we are in a disinflationary trend.
And I know I'm on the minority side of that when I say this.
But this has been a long standing view that I've had when I look at.
what's happening with wage growth, what's happening with productivity.
Like wage growth is slightly down.
So don't get me wrong.
Like I think we used to be around 4%.
We're down to like three and a half, closer to maybe even 3%.
But productivity has been back on the rise.
Like I think we're back at levels of like two, two and a half percent, which means that really inflation, like long-term, stands somewhere between one and a half, 2%.
I mean, this is back of the envelope math.
But when you really consider like the that productivity, supply side factors, plus the job data revisions that we've been getting over the last few months.
Really, I don't think that we are in an intolerant kind of phase for the Fed when they're targeting inflation and like the 2%.
Now, don't get me wrong.
I've made the point before that...
what we see in the numbers is very, very different from what we feel.
Like what we feel is completely different ballgame.
Like it's like things are super expensive or it feels very, very expensive right now.
You can just go out and you're like, I'm paying what for that price?
But of course we see that, you know, one side of the equation, which is like, oh man, like what I'm paying at the store is definitely a different experience from.
well, what is my actual wage growth?
And like, am I keeping up with that?
You know, that's what we really care about when we think about price stability.
Now, those two things are different.
Like what we measure from like CPI slash core PCE, it's very different from what we're feeling.
But I think Warsh's view is closer to, we can still have strong growth price stability if we do the job right, than trying to do this classic.
you know, very cruel trade-off on framing that the Fed has done in the past.
So, you know, I don't think that it's necessary for the Fed to do that.
But, you know, of course, ultimately, whether rates need to go higher is going to be data dependent.
But I think there's going to be flexibility around that 2% commitment because of what is implied over the long term.
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I want to get your thoughts on how this comes back to the setup for Bitcoin and crypto.
But I want to ask one more question about the Fed and about Warsh and just kind of what you're expecting here, because he's initiated, I think, a half dozen different task forces, he's called them, to reevaluate almost everything that the Federal Reserve does.
And like you said, he hasn't been very verbose about a lot of these things, but he's been very active and just doing a whole lot at the Fed and considering a lot of changes to the Fed, even though he's not communicating a ton about it.
What is your read of this?
What are you expecting these task forces to result in in terms of changes to the Federal Reserve and changes to what we can expect from monetary policy?
Yeah.
So over the last...
20 plus years, I've worked at a few different large firms.
And inevitably, you will run into this if you ever worked at a corporate job, which is like, oh, we're going to form this blue ribbon committee.
And it's going to be this high little group of corporate experts, their leaders inside the firm.
Maybe we'll get some outside specialists.
And we're going to study this, the super complex problem and our big issue.
And we're going to make these changes.
And honestly, it feels like worse is right.
Excuse me, giving us the answers.
We know what he likes.
We know what he doesn't like.
He thinks inflation is not quite a choice, but at the same time, you know, he's committed to it.
I don't think that he's wrong when his pedigree is like he's been hawkish on that in the past, but he feels the balance sheet is too damn big.
He hates for guidance.
He thinks it's a mistake.
He thinks the Fed shouldn't be hostage to market prices.
Like, I think that he basically stood up these five task forces.
and called in these quote unquote like outside experts.
I shouldn't put that in quotes.
They are outside experts.
But like that is like classic blue ribbon move.
You know, you don't convene a panel to discover like something new.
You basically do it to confirm what you already believe in.
And I think that's kind of what we have here.
Like he's definitely convening that because he wants these experts to agree with his view.
So I don't think it's going to be like these like.
discovery kind of committees i think if anything it's going to be like committees to reinforce the views that he already has i laughed through that whole answer because anybody who's ever worked at like a major corporation or organization of any kind knows exactly what you're talking about so i'm just going to leave that alone and move on david what is the the the tie back to to bitcoin and all coins for for all of this what's the setup for crypto that you're forecasting here because It seems like we've finally seen some signs of life from the market.
And whatever the cause, like you said, maybe it's just a good price.
Maybe it's some other things.
But there is now some life back in crypto.
And the macro setup here, I think, is a big part of maintaining that bullishness.
How does this come back to Bitcoin and crypto?
What is the setup you're anticipating for the rest of the year from all this?
That's part of the reason why I'm bullish on Bitcoin into the end of Q3, basically September, I guess.
I think it's probably going to be around late.
later or mid-September to where it really kind of begins and into that October period, given the fact that it's been like a year since that, like October sell-off of 2025.
And I think that that really kind of suggests that Bitcoin's macro beta is real.
I think maybe the structural buyers have changed over time, like once upon a time used to be heavily retail.
I think some of the retail flow still exists, but it's kind of converted to the ETF side of things, in part because it's cheaper.
You don't have to kind of worry about custody, which, you know, we just had that incident more recently about self-custody.
And I think that a lot of the flows can actually override the pure rates narrative for stretches at a time.
I think it's kind of where we're going as we get into end of Q3, early Q4.
And I think that...
You know, we have some of the benefits that you already mentioned, like we have a cleaner regulatory path, you know, like even if we don't get the Clarity Act, for example, CFTC is doing a lot.
The SEC is doing a lot.
I think the Fed's reaction function is a lot more predictable.
So I think it's going to become a lot easier for the capital to stay allocated into long duration assets.
And that's going to be Bitcoin.
It's going to be some tech stocks can include like AI, other things, you know.
Maybe altcoins are going to have still a pretty rough time trying to get back, but certainly less so now that Bitcoin is going to be well supported.
And like you said, like it can be it can be happen really quickly, like Bitcoin, ETH, all of this can start to come back.
And that's kind of what you need.
You need like that chart for people to kind of look at this and say, like, I've been missing this, like finally it's coming back.
Let's kind of play.
And I think that's what we're going to see over the next few weeks, few months.
Ethereum and some of the altcoins have been leading on this recent market rally.
And I think that's gotten some attention and maybe surprised some people.
Do you expect that to continue through the end of the year?
In other words, do you expect some strength or maybe even outperformance from Ethereum?
Or do you think that Bitcoin is going to take that crown back and sort of lead into the end of the year?
Bitcoin remains the precondition.
for any of those altcoins to actually do well.
I think that's part of the reason why the altcoin season has been elusive for so long.
In part, too, because of what happens after the events of 1010.
You know, like so much of that really impacted altcoins more so than anything else.
And that kind of feeds into my thesis.
It's the stuff that's gotten beaten down the most that is starting to look attractive to people again.
So if you're going to take a play on crypto.
Well, you can take a leverage proxy play on Bitcoin by getting to some of those altcoins, but capital will remain selective.
You know, you see that with Hyperliquid, for example, and Hyperliquid also benefited from the fact that it was mentioned by name at those White House meetings of the last two days.
So I think that the areas with clearer institutional or revenue hooks, and that's going to be.
you know, things that are adjacent tokenized real world assets or maybe some particular L1, L2 infrastructure with real usage, i.e.
Ethereum or those kinds of things.
It might be AI adjacent stuff.
I think that some of those names, I think, will be seen by investors as higher quality.
Maybe they will have.
things that are going to be more sustainable for people because I think a theme that we've seen kind of play out over the last two years is that people want to see that these things are tied to revenues, fees, and they're going to draw more interest from investors rather than just kind of pure narrative plays.
I don't think that environment is here anymore.
But that said, I think Bitcoin dominance, even if it's not going to overtake some of these.
other assets, I think it's going to stay very elevated.
So I think any recovery will still need a favor quality first.
Okay, so keep looking at the king to see the rest of the performance, but some things that are beaten down should show some strength.
Appreciate that perspective.
I want to talk a little bit more about this meeting at the White House.
As you said, Trump...
verbally said the word hyperliquid.
I actually think what he said was hyperliquid.
But in any event, the market really loved it.
And the SEC and the CFTC also made some announcements as well.
They rolled out this framework, part of which covers things like initial coin offerings, fundraising for digital asset tokens, but then also an innovation safe harbor and an exemption for projects that are just starting to bootstrap their networks and develop.
But talk to me about the importance of that.
Do you think that's going to be enough to bring in more capital, more attention, more talent, and sort of like revitalize the digital asset ecosystem overall in the United States?
Or how significant is this in your mind?
I think it's a sign that this administration hasn't forgotten about crypto.
And, you know, that's important because there's a lot of things going on.
Obviously, we're ahead of the midterms.
But, you know, at the very least for the next two years, like we still have a clear path to actually you know, build out the crypto ecosystem, build out these projects.
And I think the rollback risk is definitely a lot lower than we're having previously.
Now, of course, that said, like people want to get a real clarity bill passed sometime in the next two, two and a half years in order to affirm that this isn't going anywhere.
And I think that, you know, that part is why the flows could still kind of come in because.
there are still institutional players out there who are concerned about investing too much money on it and then seeing that another administration kind of turns back all these things that the SEC and CFTC are doing.
But for now, I think that the SEC releasing this new guidance, these new rules, making it easier for projects to raise capital or tokens under certain exemptions, I think these things are definitely important.
And certainly, I think, You know, even the fact that they're just under executive agency, I think every incremental change that happens makes it a little bit harder for another administration to come in and kind of undo things.
But, you know, ultimately, it will come down to can we get this done?
Can we get the Clarity Act done sometime before the next elections?
Could you talk to me a little bit about Trump's comments specifically on hyperliquid and how he wants to try to bring that into the U.S.?
And he said a fully compliant manner, which I have no idea how that happens or what that even means.
But it does sound to me like a major change to U.S.
capital markets, right?
Like making perpetual futures contracts like hyperliquid or other competitors, you know, regulatory compliant.
It changes a lot of the dynamics for not just digital assets, but for legacy markets.
What does that world look like?
How do you think that changes things?
And just how does that play out if they do start bringing hyperliquid and perpetual futures into America?
Yeah.
I mean, anecdotally, I've talked to a lot of, you know, DEX products or projects in the past.
And, you know, like all of this, like.
tend to be like things that you can only do offshore.
So I would ask them like, oh, who's like your biggest kind of clients?
Like, where do they come up?
And inevitably they'll say, oh, it's all in the US.
That's where the volume is.
And I'm like, but the US citizens can't do this.
Like, what are you talking about?
And they're like, no, it's like, either they'll find ways through VPNs or some workaround.
But clearly this is something that people want to do in the US.
But the problem has been like, it's really, really hard to govern because from the CFTC perspective, you know, we don't have any formal structure.
to kind of to guide us on the rules in this and you know you might say like oh but functionally we've been able to do it like abroad like for all this time like why can't the us do it and a lot of it comes down to that separation between the ssc and cftc in terms of uh security and like a derivative and what sits inside the ssc and cftc um so much of that power theoretically this is a derivative contract so it should sit with cftc but You know, honestly, I can just be practical about it.
The CFTC doesn't have as much funding as the SEC to kind of govern, you know, people and make sure that people are protected when it comes to these things.
So figuring out settlement, what should be like a standard way of doing this, for example, should it be every four hours?
Should it be every eight hours where like you actually are settled the funding rate?
You know, like I think those things.
will need to be standardized to some extent, or at least have rules that the CFTC can actually look at and say like, okay, this is what you can do.
You know, this is the formula you need to use.
And even now, like different exchanges use different formulas for settling those funding rates.
So I think that these are the things that, you know, they're going to try to get to.
But ultimately, like they want to do it.
It's not just coming from Trump.
I mean, there's a lot of people like, both of, you know, from the buy side, like investors who want this to happen.
So really they're trying to deliver this.
And if it happens, I could see this extending to so many products.
I'm hyper liquid.
They've already done it, right?
They've already done it for commodities, done for equities.
And I could see that this could be a new instrument for all traders, like inside the U.S.
Yep.
And we're going to have to see how this all plays out.
But I appreciate those thoughts on that.
There's a lot to figure out in all of this.
So we'll keep monitoring that closely.
David, you are no longer at Coinbase.
So I think that means I can try to get you to make price predictions.
Do you think Bitcoin is going to be over or under 100K by the end of this year?
Over.
You know, like at one point I thought that, you know, we could get towards that 85, 90 level, which is kind of where volume has sat for a little while.
The more I'm kind of looking at the macro environment, the more I'm looking at markets.
Yeah, I think it crossed into six figures.
That is one of the most bullish things.
You are such a circumspect and level-headed person.
And to hear you calling for Bitcoin over $100K by year-end is...
Really, really bullish to hear.
David, look, I always enjoy our conversation so much.
Our audience at Milk Road does as well.
We all love you very much here.
So thank you so much for coming back on the Milk Road Show, sharing your insights and thoughts on the markets with us today.
I know our audience is going to really appreciate this.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Yeah.
So...
I don't really publish a ton of things anymore because I'm not a Coinbase and I'm working my own stealth startup at the moment.
But if you go to Twitter, you can find me at like at David Wong.
And yeah, feel free to message me.
Maybe I'll respond.
I don't check it that often, but yeah, I occasionally post there.
Well, I'm looking forward to hearing more about the stealth startup.
I hope the next time we have you on Bitcoin is over 100K, but thank you so much for being here, David.
Thanks so much.
And thank you all for joining us.
I hope you all learned something today.
So until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish.
We'll see you at Bitcoin 100K.
And thanks for being here on the MillCrow show, everyone.
See you next time.
Bye.
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