# Ethereum Valuation Signals and Market Bottoming Analysis

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-07-22

## Transcript

We could go higher even.
I always look at the, what I call the traders on-chain realized price.
So that is like a realized price for short-term movements.
Right now it's around 72.
So, you know, during the bear market, we have gone up and touched that level.
three times or two times.
So when there's a rally, it goes and touches that level.
Bitcoin has broken 66K.
Is the bottom finally in or is this setting us up for another summer drop?
What is this telling us about the altcoin markets and what is this telling us about Ethereum here?
Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that it's going to be a lot more fun to do these episodes when we can stop asking, have we bottomed and start asking, where is the top?
I'm your host, John Gillen.
Today is Wednesday, July 22nd.
And today...
We are joined by Julio Moreno.
Julio is the head of research at CryptoQuant, where he leads data-driven on-chain analysis and institutional-grade research on Bitcoin and digital assets.
Julio has over 15 years of experience in market intelligence, and he's a longtime friend of Milk Road.
Julio is going to share a ton of alpha with us today, as he always does.
So if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.
Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it.
Today's episode is brought to you by Securitize, the regulated rails for tokenization and BitGet stocks 2.0 with real liquidity, real dividends.
Without further ado, welcome back to The Milkrow Show.
Our old friend Julio, how are you?
Hello, John.
I'm fine.
Thanks for having me again.
Glad to have you back on the show.
Julio, I feel like you and I have been talking about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin bear market on these episodes and these updates for months at this point.
So I was really excited when you sent over a deck on Ethereum and its relationship to Bitcoin and where it's bottoming.
Just before we get into this here, I'd like to hear your thoughts.
What got you interested in talking about this ETH BTC ratio and what's gotten your attention about ETH at this moment in the market here?
Well, you know, I see it could be like a like a bellwether or the altcoin space.
So I do divide, you know, Bitcoin on the one side because it's, you know, it's a unique asset, the store of value.
Right.
And so and then the other one is like all the other crypto and all the other chains that are.
you know doing different things not not competing with bitcoin but doing doing other things uh and so ethereum is in in in that in that side ethereum is the most important um in terms of a variety of reasons uh including market cap so how it moves uh i think it it gives you some insight into what to expect for the other coins so uh as you said we've been talking a lot about bitcoin about in the bear market when it's the bottoming but then looking into the other side i think it's also important and now it also gives you insights on what to expect uh for the other side of of crypto Hi everyone, this is John.
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Gotcha.
Well, I want to come back to Bitcoin at the end of the conversation to get your thoughts on that.
But for now, I think it makes sense to just go right into your presentation.
It's titled Cheaper, Not Capitulated.
Take us through this, man.
What do you got for us today?
Yeah, we're going to see mostly a few charts and a few metrics about Ethereum.
Comparing, the goal is to evaluate Ethereum.
Is it cheaper now after all this bear market?
Is it bottom?
So we're going to value Ethereum against some of their own metrics, but also it's really interesting to see Ethereum compared relative to Bitcoin in terms of who is outperforming and then in terms of between those two, who is more undervalued because that really gives you insight into what to expect ahead.
So a lot of these charts.
it's metrics about the relative value between Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of the price and in terms of some key metrics.
Metrics about exchange flows, metrics about ETFs holdings, metrics about the relative value between those two.
So you're going to see that.
And then...
So my goal was to answer the question if Ethereum has bottom relative to Bitcoin, because historically when that happens and we form a bottom, then you can expect an upward trend.
And also historically after that Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin.
So that's interesting to see with these metrics.
You're valuing ETH on certain metrics relative to ETH and its own price action, but also its relative strength to Bitcoin is a big indicator for you.
So I guess you'll call that out more as we go deeper into this.
But yeah, take us through this one.
Yes, correctly.
So the first slide is just a summary about Ethereum.
It has underperformed Bitcoin in this entire bear market.
The price right now, we're going to see price, you know, the price relative to Bitcoin, which is the first bucket here, 0.028.
It's around that on August 2025 was the previous local top for that ratio.
It was at around almost 0.05.
The price of Ethereum right now around 1900.
17% below its cost basis, which is also an important metric.
And we don't see a chart about this.
The realized price of Ethereum, this is the cost basis.
This is the cost basis or the per value, per price for Ethereum.
So it's important to see also the relation between those two.
And then after we see all these charts, there are some of which ones are indicating a bottom and which are not indicating a bottom yet.
So right now it's two out of five, but we're going to see which ones and the implications.
And so, yeah, we're going to assess that.
Ethereum, again, is its own cost basis and then relative to Bitcoin, what the data is telling us.
Just to contextualize that, just so people know, the price of Ethereum today is about $1,940.
And Julio is saying that that's...
cheap, but there may be some other things to look for for capitulation.
So yeah, keep us going on this.
Yes, exactly.
So yeah, this is the first one.
So this is the price of Ethereum in black here.
And then this purple line in the middle is the realized price of Ethereum or the average cost basis of everyone that has Ethereum.
So that's the line that you're using as Ethereum's fair value metric, correct?
Yes, exactly.
So yeah, and you can see that it oscillates around that value, right?
It sure does.
Yeah.
When it goes too far above, it has been historically at the top and then it goes below.
And it is right now, it's really, it's below the fair value.
It's around 17%.
And also it's closer to the, you know, the lower band there.
We have a upper band and a lower band.
So it's, you can say that it's, you know, it's under value against its own cost basis by 17%.
And historically, when you see that, you know, it has been a, a period where Ethereum starts to form a bottom, right?
So that's where we are right now.
I think, you know, after one year or more than one year, yeah, one year of bear markets going from almost 5,000 to almost, yeah, like I think 1,200, something like that, 300.
we are there now in this undervalued area for Ethereum.
So again, this cost basis, Ethereum will be undervalued and it's forming a bottom around that level.
Okay.
So the lower bound of this is around a little bit under $1,200.
And then the upper bound of this, I think you're saying is somewhere around $4,000?
No, the upper bound is $5,200.
Oh, I see.
Okay.
Yeah.
I see.
Okay.
So yeah, we are definitely much closer to the lower than the upper then.
Yeah.
So something that it also indicates is that that risk reward ratio when you go lower and near to the lower band, that risk reward ratio is much greater now if you buy, right?
Because your upside, it's 5,300 and then your downside is...
more limited.
That's why looking at this metric and where Ethereum is relative to that metric is important to assess the valuation.
Then this is against its own cost basis.
We can say right now against that Ethereum is undervalued.
We are approaching that bottoming zone.
This is one of your five Sorry, I don't mean to keep interrupting, but this is one of your five metrics for finding the bottom.
This one you're saying is showing it seems to be undervalued, and that's a sign that Ethereum is close to its bottom, right?
Yeah, yeah, that's correct.
So that's Ethereum against itself in a way.
And then the next charts are, again, relative to Bitcoin.
That's one.
I think it gives you more insight into what to expect for Ethereum.
Now, the first one, again, the black line is the price of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, so it's that ratio of prices.
And the purple line is the ratio, but between one metric, that is the MBRB ratio of those of the two coins.
So it's a ratio of that.
And that what it's telling you is the relative value of the coins, right?
So for example, Right here when this purple line, which is the ratio between the MBRBs of the two coins, it's really high, you know, around this red area.
That tells you when Ethereum is overvalued, you know, extremely overvalued against Bitcoin.
So you can see historically when you enter that zone, historically, the price of Ethereum has peaked.
against Bitcoin.
Right.
And the other way is that when this metric is below, you know, below 0.4 in this green area, it tells you that Ethereum is extremely undervalued relative to Bitcoin.
So that's the two edge cases that we, the extreme levels that we see in this chart.
Right.
So Back in August last year, remember that Ethereum had that rally between, I think, April and August.
So that the price increases against Bitcoin, relative to Bitcoin, but also the valuation spiked.
And we got this peak when Ethereum was extremely overvalued to Bitcoin.
Since then, it has declined and we entered the bear market and so the price of Ethereum underperformed.
But at the same time, it gets less and less overvalued against Bitcoin.
So right now, it's around a neutral zone, I would say, relative to Bitcoin, according to this metric.
So it came from an extremely...
overvalued zone now until um on a neutral zone and but still still we haven't touched those levels that signal you know the the bottom in of ethereum relative to bitcoin which would be around this level right now so this this um this um purple line has to come down for it to be extremely undervalued right and that's when you know the bottom forms and then out forms bitcoin That's the insight here.
So, according to this one, we're not yet at that extreme undervalued level and still not bottoming, according to this one.
So, on a relative basis, you're saying in order to get back to extreme undervalued levels for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, we might have some underperformance from Ethereum relative to Bitcoin before we reach that point.
Is that what you're basically saying here?
Yes.
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
So we're still in on that neutral zone.
Not as overvalued as we were last year in August, right?
We are in the neutral zone, but still have some room to go.
And once we get there, then you could say, you know, it's historically has been a good indicator for Ethereum.
outperforming ahead.
Gotcha.
And this could happen with Bitcoin just, I mean, not that this is going to happen, but like if Bitcoin goes to 80K or 100K and Ethereum doesn't move much off of where it is right now, then this metric would get to that extreme, like undervalued level for Ethereum and maybe mean that it was going to go higher, right?
Yes.
Yes, exactly.
So it, yeah, it's, it can go like both ways.
If we are in a market and Bitcoin declines, Ethereum can decline more and that will get this metric to extremely under value levels.
Or like you said, Bitcoin starts to rally but Ethereum doesn't rally as much.
And so that also will bring this metric to the extremely under value zone.
So yeah, it can be both ways.
So here we are mostly comparing the coins, not their absolute performance, but the relative performance of those coins.
But in the past, I guess one of the questions that we tried to answer is here with this metric, who's going to perform next?
That's the question.
Historically, when we get to these really extremely undervalued zones for Ethereum, in the coming months or ahead, it outperforms a lot.
Gotcha.
So you're saying Bitcoin might lead in the short term, but there will come a time where you think it's more likely that Ethereum outperforms and we haven't quite gotten there yet.
Yes, exactly.
Okay.
Yeah, so this was for the relative value between the two coins.
And then this next chart, I mean, it's the...
It looks really similar, right?
It's telling you the extremely undervalued zones and the extremely overvalued zones, right?
But this is from the perspective of the flows that we are seeing into exchanges for both coins.
So similar to the previous chart, when we get to this metric, which is the ratio between the inflows to exchanges of the two coins, so it's that ratio.
When we get really high in this metric to this zone, the red zone here, here, and here in August last year, what it indicates that it is the flows of Ethereum to exchanges are much higher than Bitcoin flows into exchanges.
So what that tells you is that there's going to be more selling pressure for Ethereum than Bitcoin.
for Bitcoin on a relative basis because there's more inflows into exchanges for Ethereum when we get here.
And then when we get to this, when the ratio decreases and gets to the green zone, it's the opposite.
So there's more selling pressure for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, or you can say there's much less selling pressure for Ethereum than for Bitcoin.
So it's the same principle that you know, when there's less selling pressure for Ethereum, you can suspect that it will, you know, outperform ahead.
But then it gets into, when it gets to the zone, extremely inflows to exchanges, then you can expect that Ethereum, you know, underperforms ahead, which is what has happened historically.
So it's the same, really similar interpretation right now that we got.
from our really high selling pressure for Ethereum in August last year, after the rally that Ethereum had outperforming Bitcoin.
And now again, we are in that neutral zone.
So it's really similar to the interpretation from the previous chart.
But this is from an exchange flow perspective of the two coins.
So again, maybe in the next few months, we get to that.
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Gotcha.
Okay, so on a relative basis, we're seeing about half the selling pressure we saw from Ethereum.
relative to Bitcoin when Ethereum was overvalued relative to Bitcoin.
And you're expecting another or you're hoping for another basically 50% relative drop in the selling pressure of Ethereum before we get to a place where you're saying like, hey, the market's showing much stronger support and demand for ETH in terms of, I guess, lack of sell pressure.
Is that about what you're saying here?
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, exactly.
So if we look at the historical patterns and then we should.
you know, spec this to decline a little bit more into that into this zone where, as you said, there's much, much less pressure, selling pressure for Ethereum than for Bitcoin.
And then after that, it's when Ethereum outperforms.
So yeah, you can say like it bought on relative to Bitcoin and then the expectation would be for it to to outperform ahead.
That's that's basically what this analysis is answering you.
All these are trending in the right direction so far though.
So this is all going the right way.
Yeah, exactly.
It's behaving really similar to previous cycles, right?
So that's why we keep an eye on this if you want to know what's going to be the performance against Bitcoin relative to Bitcoin.
So that's the way that we have found.
that makes more sense to analyze it.
So far, we've got one of your five signals that you're watching that says Ethereum might have bottomed, two that say it might not have bottomed.
What's the fourth one?
Yeah, so the next one is looking to...
So here, we are assessing selling pressure, right?
And the next one, we look at the total holdings of Ethereum and of ETFs.
Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs, so total holdings, right?
But again, the ratio.
So we are interested to see that relationship, right?
So this one is assessing demand, right?
Previous one was assessing selling pressure.
This one is assessing like demand growth, relative demand growth between Ethereum and Bitcoin by looking into ETFs holdings, the ratio of total Ethereum holdings relative to uh total btc uh holdings for for etfs right so and you can see that you know this of course we have less history here because ethereum etf was just launched on uh mid 2024 but what we see is that you know again when this uh area the purple area this ratio so when it's decreasing it means that the bitcoin holdings of etfs are growing faster than Ethereum so you can say oh there's more demand on the at the margin for Bitcoin than for Ethereum but then this is what we saw last year yeah 2025 yes it turned upwards again and then it really rallied this this metric it really increased so that in all this period there was more demand for Ethereum than for Bitcoin on a relative basis and so that coincides with Ethereum not performing Bitcoin because there's more like institutional demand.
And now we've been in this bear market and then so the demand for Ethereum declined more than for Bitcoin.
So we've seen this trending downward since August, probably August, September last year.
So close to a year of Ethereum demand being weaker than Bitcoin.
And just, you know, we could be like seeing some of it, you know, bouncing back.
So for me, this one, you know, it's telling you that maybe it's starting to improve the relative demand for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, right?
It's too soon maybe to say that it has completely changed the trend.
you know, it could be, you know, it's worth to keep an eye on this from the demand side for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
I was really interested to see how you highlighted that turn at the end.
For those who are listening, this chart shows sort of like a relative downtrend in this ETH BTC demand, ETF demand.
But then in the last little part of the chart, the purple starts to go up and it seems like we're starting to see some demand for ETH here.
And I've been, you know, Julio, we don't have to get into this a ton, but I've been watching this a lot because just this week we finally started to see some positive flows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP ETFs, and some of the altcoin ETFs in the most recent, you know.
part of the market here have shown relative strength to Bitcoin, which I've talked about with other guests on the show.
So it does seem like it, you know, just like you said, it's too soon to tell for sure.
But it does seem like we're starting to see some changes in demand on the ETFs that might indicate we're seeing some more interest in the altcoin space.
And I don't know if that's speculation on clarity or maybe it's just a sign the market's starting to bottom or whatever, but it is something that's important.
And I was interested to see that you flag that too on your slide here and say that, hey, this is improving and it's a trend to watch.
Yes, yes, that's correct.
And I mean, I haven't followed too much the clarity.
Maybe you and other guests that you have had know more about that.
But my impression is that it's better for the altcoins than for Bitcoin.
It's more about that, I guess.
I agree with that for sure.
Yes.
Yeah, so maybe that also...
you know the investors start to position uh before that uh and also because we have had you know we could be in the you know late stage of the bear market so all that starts to position ahead of those of those events right so yeah yeah so the bottom line is like like you said we're seeing you know maybe the start of that um more demand at the margin for ethereum and maybe all the coins from the ETFs than for Bitcoin.
And that's the...
or has been in this relatively low history that we have, has been an indication of that when that happens.
More demand at the margin for other coins and then outperforming.
Okay, so this one goes in the not...
uh not flipped to a green bullish signal yet but it is improving improving in that bucket all right what's what's the fifth what's the fifth signal you got for us here um yeah and this is the last one so this is also you know all these charts are um metrics of ethereum relative to bitcoin and this one is for spot trading volumes so here we are measuring that ratio ethereum spot trading volume like relative to Bitcoin spot trading volumes.
So, and typically also when Ethereum outperforms, that ratio is increasing, right?
There's more like, you know, trading demand or there's more buying in the spot markets for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, right?
So all this is relative always.
And so the outperformance of Ethereum coincides with that, you know, more spot volume for Ethereum.
for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
We've seen this in 2017 and at the peaks 2021 here.
And then recently in the last year also, that outperformance of Ethereum against Bitcoin between April and August also like a spike in those trading volumes and that ratio.
And since then, this has come down.
And what I see from this chart that we are now at bottom levels for this metric.
This metric really is telling you we are really near to that bottom level in which there's much less trading volume for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
And so after that, it typically has signaled a recovery of Ethereum and then the outperformance.
This one is, I would say, at bottoming level, so signaling that for a team.
Yeah, the thing that stood out to me on this slide was the line you have here in bold, speculative interest in ETH has been fully washed out.
And I thought that that was a great way of just saying like, hey, these price levels, this trading volume, people aren't going super degen on these assets right now.
And I think that's a really bullish indicator for you know, forming a bottom and starting a new phase of a bull run and moving back into that over speculative market because all that's been washed out of crypto finally after all these months of bear market action.
And I think that that's like what you want to see at a bear market bottom, right?
And that's what you're saying here in this slide, right?
Yes, exactly.
Yes.
Like you said, when we are at the peaks, you know, Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, you know, that is showing that in trading volumes.
either spot or futures that spike, that really, you know, the marginal buyer going all in right at the top.
So we had that last year and then all, you know, since then it's all, you know, coming down because there's more like trading activity, there's less speculation, there's less, yeah, activity on.
that type of activity.
And now we are, according to this metric, at the bottom of that trading activity.
Okay, cool.
So that's another one in the bullish camp.
Exactly.
We've seen the two of the five.
This is just the summary that we have seen.
If you don't realize price, if you're in against relative to its own realized price, It's under it's an undervalued zone forming a bottom of undervaluation.
The relative value between Ethereum and Bitcoin, not yet because we are in a neutral zone now after being extremely overvalued last year.
The same for exchange inflows in neutral zones.
So we are not quite there for the bottom.
ETFs holdings improving.
right we we saw that um and then for you know it and btc spot volume ratio yeah we can say that we are you know bottoming levels for for that so two out of the five that we saw uh at the beginning so uh i would say you know more constructive but still you know you can't really call call the bottom but uh it's uh you know improving from from where we where we were a few months ago Yeah, and I want to just call out for our audience the way Julio approaches this, I think is really instructive because he's not just using one metric.
He's not just looking at, you know, one price chart or something.
He's looking at several ways of evaluating where the market is, where the relative valuation of ETH is, and just a lot of things here to get a confluence of things to say, okay, what does the landscape look like?
And have we reached the bottom here?
And, you know, just like you said, it's not...
quite totally clear yet if we have, but it does look like for the first time in a great while, Ethereum might be showing signs of a bottom and the foundations of the beginning of the next bull run and bull market.
And that's a great opportunity, right?
Because you want to find great assets that are undervalued.
And that's the first green word you've got on this chart is undervalued.
So it's a really interesting time in Ethereum and in digital assets overall.
So I just wanted to call that out for the audience.
But thanks for putting this all together, Julio.
Yeah, yeah, sure.
Yes, exactly.
That's...
what we try to to do when we are analyzing um the market and or on specific coin like you said uh don't just look one indicator or one model uh trying to you know form a more uh or have a more important um way to to uh to assess where where the market is and so that you you can get into the uh to that by looking out to more metrics right um But keeping it simple also, I mean, not too much metrics, right?
If your model gets too complicated, then maybe you never get the final signal from a lot of metrics.
But yeah, I mean, these are like five metrics.
For Bitcoin, we have had in the previous podcast here, the bull score indicator, which is 10 metrics, right?
tells you where Bitcoin is.
So those types of analysis I really like to do to look at some of the most important or key metrics.
This is why I love cryptocombs so much.
So yeah, you do great data analysis, but you keep it just like you said, kind of concise and simple and something that everybody can understand.
So yeah, I really appreciate your work on this.
Do you have any other slides here in this tech force?
Okay, cool.
Well, this is just like a conclusion, right?
It's a little bit of the...
similar to what we have discussed.
Some metrics are already there, some other metrics still in the neutral.
And so just what it means, the final bottom for it, upperform the bottom and then upperform and may still take a little bit more time to form.
But we're a little bit better than in the previous months.
Okay, great.
Julio, thank you so much for going through all of this.
I really appreciate you giving us that detailed outlook there.
I want to end with, you know, I said at the beginning we'd come back to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has been kind of ranging around $64K for about a week.
You know, it's gone up and down a little bit, but just recently today, it's broken $66K.
And I'm really curious your thoughts.
Have you seen any updated confirmations in terms of a bottoming process on Bitcoin or just any updated outlook for you on Bitcoin and the price action we've seen here?
So, I mean, actually we did a report, I think two weeks ago.
Yeah, at the start of July, maybe the first week of July.
But typically, you know, July and typically in bear market, it's a good month, you know, Bitcoin performs well.
So, you know, with this, you know, with this rally so far, July, I still see it as a, you know, bear market rally.
So we're still in a bear market.
And the fact that July is typically a good month, I don't want to just think that we already bought them and we're rallying after this because of that seasonality.
So it could be just seasonality.
That's what I see right now.
So overall, we're still in the...
in the bear market.
I think maybe a few months more, but I do see some signals that we are in the late stage of the bear market, especially with the realized losses that we see on chain from holders.
Through last year, the average holder was still realizing profits, right?
less and less and less as prices decline and but now it's it's mostly realized losses so that's one of the first uh signals that i see that when when we're starting to you know the late stage of our market so that's something that i recently noticed for for in terms of the realized losses from holders but that takes you know a few months more and so with this rally and still seeing it as a fair market rally and because of the seasonality can, you know, misguide you.
But yeah, I'll wait a little bit more.
I think your suspicious facial expressions say everything.
There's a little bit of like a I don't trust this rally kind of vibe.
But I agree with you.
I think there's a lot of resistance and cell pressure at 68K and again at 71 and 74K.
So I think there's a lot of reason to still kind of be hesitant about whether or not this holds.
But I think, like you said, you haven't been watching the Clarity Act so much.
There's a lot of speculation it might pass in August.
And I think maybe that could start off the bull run sooner than people expect.
So it is really one of these things where it's a great time to pay attention and watch because we could see the beginning of a new bull market with some fundamental changes like the Clarity Act happening.
We could catch a lot of people off guards.
But just like you said, for the time being, it looks like this rally, it's good to see some positive price action.
I'm glad we're not just going straight to 30K or something, but I'm still watching and kind of a little suspicious here too.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But also we could...
you know, during July or maybe we could go higher even.
I always look at the what I call the traders on chain realized price.
So that is like a realized price for short term movements.
Right now it's around 72.
So, you know, during the bear market, we have gone up and touched that level three times or two times.
So when there's a rally, it goes and touches that level as a resistance.
So right now that's around 72K.
So we could see that and still be on the market rally.
So yeah.
This is some good alpha.
Okay.
All right.
I'll keep my eye out for 72K.
Julio, thank you so much for being on the Milk Road Show.
I always enjoy these episodes.
I know our audience does too.
We always learn a lot from you.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Yeah.
So you can go to CryptoQuant.com.
It's our web platform.
We also have an API and you can get all these.
metrics and more that you that I have shown here and if you want to see what I publish it's on x my handle jjc moren thank you so much for being on the milk road show I'm looking forward to the next episode yep thank you John thank you all for joining us I hope you all learned something today so until next time stay safe stay educated stay bullish and we will see you all on the next episode of the milk road show thanks for being here everyone bye Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event?
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