# Bitcoin Market Analysis: On-Chain Metrics & Demand Dynamics

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-06-23

## Transcript

So yeah, we should pick or look for demand starting to contract slower and then...
Eventually, we'll get to growing again.
Bitcoin has retested the lows from February, but is the bottom of the bear market in or are we going to go even lower from here?
Hello and welcome to The Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that if the bulls are ever going to come back, someone besides Michael Saylor is going to have to buy some Bitcoin.
I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Tuesday, June 23rd.
And today we are joined by Julio Moreno.
Julio is the head of research at CryptoQuant, where he leads data-driven on-chain analysis and institutional-grade research on Bitcoin and digital assets.
Julio has over 15 years of experience in market intelligence, and he's a longtime friend of The Milk Road Show.
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And without further ado, welcome back to the Milk Road Show.
Julio, how are you, sir?
Hello, John.
I'm good.
Thank you.
Thank you for having me back.
I'm really glad to have you back.
Julia, before we get into the charts, because I know you've got a lot of slides prepared for us today, kind of walk us through what you're seeing here.
I think a lot of people are wondering, have we bottomed or are we going lower?
And I've heard some wild calls like down to the 30s.
I've heard there's one analyst from Bloomberg who's calling for 10K.
So there's a lot of wild predictions on these things.
Why do you think after this much time in the markets and this much price history, we still have such a wide variation of opinions on things like, Has Bitcoin bottomed in this cycle?
And why are we getting such a broad spectrum of predictions here?
I mean, well, maybe, you know, everyone has a different model or a different weight of value in Bitcoin.
It could be from the technical side.
And I've seen all those charts also.
Mostly it's the technical side when people say, you know, if it pierces this.
support it will go to 10k right that that's like the wildest the wildest things that i've seen uh regarding the the price forecast or predictions uh so yeah it could be you know different different ways to to model that i myself do it more from the on-chain data perspective i think is is the one that it has given us you know more accurate bottoms over the over the years bottoms that repeat themselves uh looking at some specific metrics that we will take a look actually in the slide so so yeah it's about you know your your framework or your model or where you're coming from you know when analyzing bitcoin it is it's technical or macro or on chain so that's why there's you know, it varies a lot.
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Gotcha.
Okay.
So there are a lot of different ways to model this, but you try to do on-chain analysis because you think that's been the most reliable historically.
Before we get into the charts, like I said, I want to ask a little bit about the path that we took to get here because Bitcoin not too long ago was up around 80K and it got rejected and it came down to, I think, 59, 60K and we're right now around 62K.
So pretty near the local lows here.
What does that rejection off of 82K signal to you?
Is that something you were expecting?
Were you hoping that we would break through resistance and continue or rejoin the bull run?
Or just how did you interpret that breakdown, that rejection?
Yeah, actually, you know, the previous time that I was here with you guys in the mid-road show, I was talking with LG.
And actually, you know, the slides where, you know, the title was, this was like a rally, a bear market rally.
You know, I was expecting, you know, we...
come down again and people can look into that so i'm not just talking as if i knew the future but you know it was what on-chain data was actually telling us a little bit of technical because we when we hit 80k it was really um there was a lot of resistance there for from the technical side but also from the on-chain side uh there was a lot of short-term profits that were unrealized.
So we were on a risk of traders realizing those profits because we had actually a really long rally there from the 60s to 80s.
So there was a lot of unrealized profits to be made.
And so all that converged for me to expect that we rejected that at those levels.
yeah i think you know if you see also previous bear markets for bitcoin specifically we tend to have those long actually really long rallies uh within the bear market they last for months they are they are actually you know pretty pretty large in terms of performance in terms of uh returns uh even in the previous one in 2022 we had like a 50 rally within the bear market and then we corrected to the downside again.
So it was really similar in that if you review the cycle, how Bitcoin behaves.
But it is also, you know, whenever we get to this specific key resistance levels, you need to see how we get to those levels.
So in terms of, you know, analyzing in that case, and we want to see we're gonna see that in those slides in that case i was analyzing demand like if demand was growing so it was actually not growing demand for bitcoin was contracting so you know for me it was an indication that that rally was uh just like a short-term trader rally not like a fundamental rally that takes us to to a bull market so that's that's what i want to uh always want to do is to see the fundamentals when we get to those specific key resistance or support levels.
So, yeah.
Gotcha.
Yeah, I think that's really helpful framing.
And I think also tying it to prior bear markets where you've seen sort of these bear market rallies, I think that's helpful context too, and just framing all that.
I want to get into the charts you prepared because you always bring a lot of great data here, but I really like this title, Closer to the Floor, Bitcoin Enters the Value Zone.
And I want to ask more questions about that, but why don't you just start us off with what you're seeing and what you've brought to share with us today.
Yeah, sure.
Just closer to the floor, but Don't get fooled by that.
We can go lower, just to say that.
But it's closer, it's much closer, of course, now that we are at 60K than when we were at 80K or 90K or 100K, right, when we started this bear market.
So, yeah, so the first slide, actually, this slide is, I also used this one in the previous talk with LG.
Because I was...
what I was wanting to point out is that we were at the similar key resistance level than in previous bear markets.
In this case, it's a technical one.
This is the 200-day moving average for Bitcoin, this blue line.
And so you tend to see it's a really key resistance or even support levels when Bitcoin is trending.
And so we were at this actually the same resistance level there.
This is in May, back in May, we were just at that at around 82K.
And so I wanted to point that out.
And we actually do a really similar price movement, rejected here and then corrected back to the lows of this bear market.
We even printed a little bit of a fresh low there at 50, 59, around 59K.
So, yeah, I mean, that really tells you that, you know, the bear market continues, right?
Because we got rejected at a very key resistance levels for bear markets.
So, yeah, right now we are, you know, hovering the lows and, you know, yeah, that's the key insight here that...
you know, we need to be monitoring that 200-day moving average on the technical side.
But now, you know, where we are compared to key on-chain metrics.
And so what I like to look at in terms of the cycle bottoms or the cycle tops, in this case, the bottom is the realized price for Bitcoin, which is basically just the average price at which, you know, every holder has.
purchased their bitcoin or has last moved their bitcoin so it's it's just an average of that and over the over the cycle you know the price tends to bottom at around that level around that this this is this violet line uh is the realized price so in the previous one you can see you know around that line is when we start to form the bottom right and i say that we're closer because actually this line is This metric is around 53K right now.
And we are about, you know, in the low 60s.
So we are really close.
That's, you know, some look at that and say we are like in the value zone because it's really close to that final bottom, right?
It doesn't mean that...
Yeah, I just wanted to get you to define what you mean by value zone, because I hear this term from a lot of different analysts, but I think people measure that differently.
And some people say we're in the value zone.
Some people say, like you do here, we're near the value zone.
What is the value zone?
How do you measure that?
And where are you seeing that right now?
So it's around the realized price for me.
Like if we're really close to the realized price, you know, right now we are, you know, from the lows from 59, it was just 10% above that.
So you can measure that also in quantiles, you know, over the history of Bitcoin, you know, how much it has stayed around, you know, the realized price.
And so we are actually in the, I think it was like a 10%.
of the day that is really close to that.
So it's also another way to measure it.
For me, it's just to keep it simple.
We're really close to 10% is really close to that, you know, so you have that 10% of risk of going to that zone, to the realized price.
And of course, you have much higher appreciation than when...
we were at 100, right?
So yeah, that's for me, it's around that realized price is the value zone like we were in the previous cycle.
We actually went, I think, maybe 20% below that after the FTX, which was right here, right?
But most of the time, it's just hovering below and above that and just forming that bottom.
So that's why I say we're really close to that.
But, you know, as I said, I look at this metric and I say, okay, maybe you're really close to the bottom to that key bear market resistance, sorry, support, but we need to look at the fundamentals, right?
And so that's the other side of the coin is looking at the fundamentals.
Okay, we got here, but how we get here is an important thing.
So that bad news is that from a fundamental side, the demand is contracting, is still contracting.
So we shouldn't expect like a really big rally or, you know, the bull markets around the corner.
It's not really like that.
I see a lot of that, you know, type of analysis that.
we get to a fresh low for a bear market and everyone is just, you know, saying, oh, this was a low, right?
This was definitely low.
We saw that at 80K, then at 60K in February.
And now we got a 59K low and everybody is saying, oh, this was a low.
Maybe it was.
I mean, we wouldn't know until we had more time.
But, you know, As long as demand is contracting this much, it's really difficult for prices to rally or to rebound or to start a bull market, right?
So this is the demand I use is demand on perpetual futures markets and also the apparent demand, which measures spot demand on chain.
So yeah, it's contracting at the...
It was contracting a few weeks ago.
at the largest level since 2022.
So, yeah.
Yeah.
So when you sent over these slides for me to take a look at before we had this conversation, this was the one that stopped me.
And I was like, kind of like the most like, wow about because yeah, just like you said.
This is, according to your analysis here, the fastest pace of contraction in demand for Bitcoin since January of 2022, which is a long way back in its history and one of the darker periods of Bitcoin's history.
And so this to me, just to connect this back to the prior slide, this to me is kind of the evidence you're pointing to that might take us down even lower than the current levels to get to that value zone, that floor that you're seeing there.
I wanted to ask about this.
You said that this takes into account.
Futures demand from perpetuals and, like you said, apparent demand, spot demand as well.
Is this also including demand from ETFs?
Is that captured in that there as well?
Or are you measuring that a different way?
Yeah, in the spot demand, it's capturing that in the spot demand part of this metric.
Yeah, ETFs or treasuries, they're all there.
If you see, for example, just, you know, this is interesting.
When we had this rally up to 80K, right?
Actually, the demand was growing, but it was just in the perpetual futures market.
So spot demand was contracting, still contracting.
So that's one of the insights that I get from this metric is that, okay, sometimes both are growing.
Sometimes one is growing, but the other is not growing.
And sometimes...
the two are contracting right so in this rally what i saw is that spot was still contracting so that's why i even wrote about this you know um saying that it was a uh speculative rally to to call it um in a way so just speculative demand was growing but the spot demand was actually not and now you know when just before we started like the correction both are contracting.
So spot demand contracted more and then futures demand just also stopped growing and contracted sharply.
So that's the insight there that you can see both sides of the demand.
So yeah, we should pick or look for demand starting to contract slower and then eventually we'll get to growing again.
Well, I'm looking forward to that.
I think another question I had around this was, what is apparent demand and how are you measuring that for Bitcoin?
Because I think that's a phrase that our audience may not be familiar with, demand versus apparent demand.
What is the definition of apparent demand?
So apparent demand, when I was, you know, most of my career, I was a researcher for commodities and specifically for primary aluminum.
And so when you're analyzing, you want to analyze and assess what's happening to the demand side.
So demand is not really hard to see in the data demand.
It's not something that is evident.
That's why the name apparent, because you are now serving that demand directly.
So you have to infer that.
For example, in aluminum production, you can actually see pretty clear because you have data from the companies.
You have data from some associations that gather data from producers.
So you can observe production.
And you can also observe inventories because there's also a lot of data on that, on inventories for commodities in general, in different places, in different...
entities holding inventories so you see those but you you can't see demand so what you do is you look at how production grew and how inventories change and from that you infer what's happening to demand so for example if production increased but we see that inventory is decreased that means that demand grew more than the production because we had to you know we had to take from the inventories.
And so it's that same analysis.
So I translated that into Bitcoin.
So I had to define inventories and production.
So production is really straightforward.
It's just like what the miners are mining, new Bitcoin into existence.
But inventories, so I had to define that.
And for me, inventories is...
the Bitcoin that hasn't moved in more than a year.
That's our inventory.
That Bitcoin is not moving, so it's just sitting there.
It's like the inventories from any commodity just stored there.
But when inventories move, so it means that the long-term holders are selling to the new investors, right?
When that moves...
So inventories decline and if they decline more than the production.
So that's how I calculate demand.
Demand is growing or not, you know.
So that's why you see, for example, I've seen a lot of people say, or they look at the data and the data tells that, you know, long-term holders or long-term, you know, supply for Bitcoin is growing a lot.
So it means that, you know, we're holding and not selling.
For me, that's the opposite.
It means that there's no new demand, you know, wanted to get Bitcoin from the long-term holders.
So from the inventory, there's no demand to draw those inventories.
So that's kind of the analysis there.
And the, I mean, the way that I translated this analysis from commodities, traditional commodities into Bitcoin.
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Right.
Yeah, because Bitcoin is a digital commodity.
And I think that makes a lot of sense.
And I think this is why I think your background in market intelligence and commodities research is so relevant here and so helpful.
Another thing, I think it's another slide you have on ETF demand.
You said that it's basically been flat on an annual basis.
And I'd love to hear your analysis of what you're seeing here.
Yeah.
And what's going on in that chart?
Yeah, this one.
So, yeah, this one is measuring.
the change in inventory in holdings from US ETFs.
So this is the annual change of those holdings, right?
So most of my metrics that I present here in my analysis is it's about the change.
It's not about the levels.
The change tells you more.
So you see, maybe you could see, okay, ETFs holdings are near record or, you know, But how are they growing?
How fast are they growing?
So that's also demand.
The change in those holdings tells you about demand.
So, yeah, all since inception, of course, as we've progressed in the cycle, the demand tends to slow down, right?
And you can see that in 2025, really high demand from ETFs.
you know more than 500 000 bitcoins year over year so really fast uh growth there so that's when we had like this bull runs uh rallies in inside the bull market then it slowed down a bit and then i you know again growing in 2026 until we got to the you know the all-time high here in october right in from there you can actually you know see this demand slowing down for ETFs on a yearly basis.
And this concise, you know, just the entire bear market for Bitcoin is in part because ETFs started, started, stopped buying.
And then actually, you know, at some point and some periods, they've been, you know, net selling Bitcoin.
But yeah, I like this, how this chart tells you, you know, the story of how you know how fast or how how how much is growing the demand for etfs and right now i mean for for the first time in since etfs were launched on a yearly basis it's basically zero what they're uh purchasing um so yeah i mean of course we we would want to see you know this this etfs purchase accelerating uh first stop selling and then accelerating to to to be able to for prices to you know form that bottom and then you know rally rally again right yeah one question i had looking at this slide was that there are a lot of new bitcoin and crypto etf etp products that have been launched this year And there are always new ones coming out to market.
Morgan Stanley recently brought out some of theirs.
Are you adding those into this analysis as they come out?
Or are you seeing demand shift from one product to another in the ETF space?
Or just have you seen any movement around those lines as these new products come out?
This includes the ones that were launched in 2024, all of those.
And then the recent one for Morgan Stanley.
So it's basically those.
There have been other ETFs.
recently launched about ETFs that provide income for Bitcoin.
Yeah, from BlackRock and others.
From BlackRock, yeah, some that generate yield.
So those are not here.
This is just the, let's say you're playing vanilla ETF that just falls.
But we have, like the Morgan Stanley that was actually launched this year, we add those also to this metric.
Cool.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
I just wanted to check because there's always new ones coming out and it's a changing landscape.
I think the last slide you have here is the one I think I wanted to spend some more time on, which is realized loss.
Just start with, what is that metric of realized loss and why is that so important?
So here we are measuring.
So when a Bitcoin moves, when there's a transaction, any transaction, any transfer of Bitcoin, What we are measuring is that, okay, this transaction, this Bitcoin was moved when the price was at this level.
Like, let's say some Bitcoin moved at, you know, right now at 60K, right?
But that Bitcoin, the previous move of that Bitcoin was, let's say, 80K.
So there's a, you know, there's an assumption there that it was moved at a loss because it was previously moved at 80K and now it's been moved at 60K.
So there's a 20K loss there, right?
And then that's in price terms, but then we multiply that price loss for the amount of Bitcoin that is being moved in a transaction or in a transfer.
And so you get a dollar figure for that.
And then that's how you calculate whether it was moving at a profit or it was moving at a loss.
And we then, you know, calculate that for the entire transfer of Bitcoin every day and you get the aggregate for the entire transfer of Bitcoin.
And typically what you see in bull markets, it's holders realizing profits.
So if we're in a bull run and you will see mostly, which is the green area here in this chart.
So they will be realizing profits.
So most of the holders are realizing profits.
And then in a bear market, we start to see most of the holders realizing losses, right?
So that's how we calculate this.
And for when we are in a bear market, we look at this to assess if there has been enough losses realized.
you know, and that the sellers are exhausted, right?
So typically when we have bought on in previous cycles, you see, you know, like this one here, you see like a large realization of losses.
That's what, you know, an indication of we may be close to the bottom because it's a really large realization of losses.
I'm here, I'm just showing you know the last year but if i show the previous cycle it's even larger than this one right now so it was you know realization of millions of of bitcoin in loss um on an equivalent equivalent basis right so it was like realizing one million bitcoin of losses um so right now what i see here is that for for for this recent correction we actually haven't seen like that big of a loss realization so that would tell you, okay, maybe we haven't seen like this, the bottom for this recent correction.
So that's, you compare those, okay, this one was around 400K of Bitcoin being realized in losses.
And this one is around 181K, right?
So a lot of the analysts and people say, We want to see this big spike in realized losses to say, okay, maybe we are in the bottom.
But what I'm seeing is that it hasn't been that much of a realization of loss.
So that's why I still say we are maybe not at the ultimate bottom, let's say.
Do you think that this might just be a sign that everybody who's...
willing to sell or going to sell has kind of sold?
And like, maybe there's more Bitcoin right now that is looking at this and being like, I don't really care how far the price goes.
I'm not realizing the losses.
I'm not selling.
I'm just going to hodl through all of this.
Do you think that might be what the data is telling us here?
It could be.
It could be.
I mean, you actually, you know, can't say, you know, before the fact, right?
You can't really tell.
Right, right.
But yeah, that's also a possibility.
I just think that if I compare to previous cycles, we haven't had that, you know, the same amount of losses, realization of losses.
So that's why I continue to say, okay, we haven't seen that.
And also we have demand contracting.
So, you know, that's why I can't say from this metric that it's just...
everyone that was willing to sell already did because the man is still contracting.
But yeah, like you say, that's also really a possibility that we see the ethics of station already.
That's also a possibility, but it's pretty difficult to say beforehand.
Okay.
So I want to kind of like...
put together some pieces here.
Basically, what I'm hearing you say is that demand is contracting.
It looks like the value zone for Bitcoin, according to your on-chain analysis, is still a little bit below us.
Not too much further below us, but a little bit further below us.
So there might be a final capitulation coming, one more dip on the horizon here.
How are you navigating this with your portfolio?
Because like you said, we're close to the floor.
We may not be at the floor.
Have you started accumulating?
Have you taken small positions?
Are you still waiting for another final capitulation lower?
What's your thought process on that in terms of what you're doing to navigate this?
I mean, I think for that, it really depends on your personal style, I would say.
I mean, I would say there's, I'll mention like three different.
styles, let's say, for people that are looking for to get Bitcoin at this level.
So some of those, some will say, you know, we're basically at the value zone.
We are around 60, you know, lower 60s.
It's really close to the realized price.
You know, the bottom, it may not be like the bottom, but the bottoms form, you know.
in months.
It takes months to form bottoms.
So let's say we're at 60 right now.
We may fall to, let's say 50, right?
But if you start buying, some people will say, I'll start buying since, you know, at 60.
And for the next few months where I expect the bottom to form, you know, for the next few months.
You start like, let's say DCA for these months.
you're basically capturing, you know, inside the value zone and, you know, chances are that you actually are buying some of that are really, you know, practically at the bottom.
So that's one style I would say, like people that just say, okay, we are basically at the bottom, at the value zone, I'll start DCA this next, you know, let's say four months, you know.
So that's one style, I would say.
The other are the ones that want to capture like the exact bottom.
So that's like more risky.
But, you know, some people would like to catch that and are, you know, looking into that.
Where's the exact bottom, right?
And then the others that I lean more to this one, I start buying, you know, when I see confirmation of a bull.
starting that's that's that's but it's just like my personal style uh because um you know it takes away the let's say the anxiety of buying and then see the price come come lower right and then you start second guessing that's just personal style and then when you wait you can wait more and then start seeing that confirmation of course you won't catch the bottom and with this one with this last style you won't catch the bottom and probably you'll start buying when we are exiting that value zone but for me once I have confirmation it feels more easier to navigate but like I said it's just personal style Yeah, my personal style is I like to buy when there's panic in the market.
So I like to say buying fear is a good deal at any price.
And so whenever everybody's like panic selling on the reddest days, that's when I like to buy because eventually it turns out to be a good move.
But yeah, you're right.
I think that's a really helpful laying out of different frameworks, different approaches, different strategies.
And it's going to be the right strategy is going to be different for different people.
I think that's helpful.
I do want to zero in on something you said, which is you're going to wait for confirmation that bullish action has started.
And that was what I wanted to ask you.
What would you want to see from Bitcoin?
Is there a specific price level or like a threshold that you're looking for for Bitcoin to clear in order for you to feel like, OK, we have seen the bottom.
We're not going to go lower and the bulls are back in charge here.
It's not about a price.
So it's not that I have a target for the price.
It's about, you know, the indicators, what the data is telling me.
Sometimes, you know, the previous cycle, actually, confirmation, we got confirmation at maybe a little bit above 20K, like 23, something like that.
But it wasn't about price.
It's about, you know, a lot of our metrics and indicators that we use to analyze Bitcoin started to signal.
you know, the bear market was over and then we were starting like an early bull phase.
So it's about, you know, that convergence of different indicators that start to tell you that we are out of the bear market and we are in an early bull phase.
So it's about those indicators.
What I look for, of course, you know, like we've seen demand is growing.
on a monthly basis and also on an annual basis.
This time we can look at ETFs and also some valuation metrics that we use, some like NBRB ratios or traders on real life profits.
So everything is like right now, if you see those metrics, they are trending downwards still.
They will also fall on the bottom and then start to trend up again.
And then that's when you start to think about, you know, the early phases of the bull run.
So it's about those metrics, not much as of like a really up-priced target where I'll stop buying.
So it's where the data tells you, you know, it's difficult because, you know, in this...
Over the over this bear market, when we rally from 60 to 80, it's normal.
You start thinking maybe I missed it.
Right.
And then I'm buying at 80.
But it takes it takes some holding just holding into, you know, just act on the data is what you're looking for.
Discipline.
Yeah, exactly.
Discipline.
Right.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
Well, so this, I think I agree with you on all of this.
And I think that, you know, there's a great analyst named Ben Cowan who likes to say that Bitcoin bear markets make fools out of the bears and the bulls.
And it's for exactly that reason you described, right?
We get these bear market rallies and then everyone gets FOMO and then they end up buying the top of the bear market rally and then we make new lows and everyone just ends up frustrated and confused.
But yeah, this is, I, yeah, I've been trying to like keep this messaging consistent to our audience that like.
I'm following it when it's going up in the bear market rally, but I'm still looking for confirmation and a breakout.
And if I don't see that, then I'm not going to go chasing that with my capital.
In the meantime, I've still got bids.
And if you want to see where my bids are, you can join our pro community for just a dollar.
So definitely hop in there if you're not.
Julio, thank you so much for coming on the Milk Road Show.
I always appreciate these check-ins.
I love your focus on data and keeping things grounded and sort of cutting through the noise.
So yeah, I'm really looking forward to the show that we do together when you do finally flip bullish.
So that'll be a fun conversation.
In the meantime, though, where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Yeah, so mostly of my, what I publish is on X at my handle at JJC Moreno.
Moreno is my last name.
And then you can also check our website, CryptoGuan.com.
We also publish a weekly report there.
And of course, you can follow live all these metrics and more.
Gotcha.
Awesome.
Well, thanks again, Hulu, for being here.
I really appreciate the conversation.
yep thank you john thank you all for joining us i hope you all learned something today so as i always say until next time stay safe stay educated stay bullish and we will see you all in the next episode of the milk road show thanks for being here everyone bye want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event subscribe to our channel Join the Milk Road daily and pro newsletters and start investing like the top 1%.
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