# AI Valuations, Podcast Moats, and Crisis Strategy

**Podcast:** Pivot
**Published:** 2026-06-02

## Transcript

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You definitely have a distinct style.
Now, it's awful, but it's distinct.
Hi, everyone.
This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher.
And I'm Scott Galloway.
Scott, you're still on the road.
How's it going?
Good.
San Francisco was good.
L.A.
was great with Tets around us.
Miami was good.
Love Miami.
You're in Chi-town.
And now, yeah, what do you call it?
The city of big shoulders?
Yes.
We always love being here.
Chicago, it's the most grateful little big city in the world.
It is.
I just know it's going to go well tonight because they're like, thank you for coming here.
I know.
It's like Minneapolis, right?
It's Minneapolis.
Yeah, they're just so happy.
And I went to a steakhouse last night with my...
Closest friend, Adam, since the fourth grade.
Chicago is one of my favorite cities.
It's really a lovely place.
I like all cities.
What am I talking about?
I like all cities.
I love Chicago.
I always am happy to be there.
And then you'll be in New York.
How exciting.
Is that the last stop on your parade?
Tomorrow night, New York.
At Elson Parade?
And we've got a couple.
We have by far our most impressive guests who shall go nameless.
But I'm super excited about that.
Good.
We sold out a big theater.
Right.
Yeah.
Is that the final one?
Is that the final one?
That's the last one.
Yay.
Well, how exciting.
How good.
Get ready to do it in the fall with me.
Aren't you excited?
But it's not for a while.
It's not for a while.
It's resting time.
Anyway, I had a nice weekend of children's activities.
What'd you do?
Children's activities.
Like, Saul has left his preschool, so we had all his friends from preschool over for a giant run around the yard and scream party with tiny bagels.
I had a...
Another one last night, another barbecue.
I clean the outdoors, Scott.
I'm like one of these.
And then I ended up having, I'm one of these people that does the yard, essentially.
I had to like get it ready for the summer.
And I end up having discussions with other dads about yard things, like different landscaping, different construction things.
So I really am the dad I recognize this weekend.
So just so you know, yard work is basically, it has nothing to do with the yard work.
It's about escaping your family.
Oh, is it?
You got to figure this shit out.
You're not, first off, you're not, it's not that you're into yard work.
You just want to wait from the house.
No, it's actually, it's not because my kids help me.
I have my kids do it with me.
And so we fill out bird feeders.
I have it differently.
We fill the kiddie pool.
We do the sprinklers together.
You know, I have Saul.
I have him carry bags of bird seed.
So I employ my children into this, and they do a good job.
They do a great job.
My friend Chris Nelson down in Florida was saying how he taught his son over the weekend how to use.
What are those?
Like, they look like a chainsaw, but you use them to mow a hedge, a shear.
I don't even know what they're called.
Shears.
Electric shears.
Not scissors, but like electric.
No, they're called shears.
Electric shears.
Okay.
So he said he taught his eight-year-old son how to do it.
Oh.
I thought, I'm such a bad dad.
Like, I'm so incompetent.
I don't know how to teach.
My kids aren't going to know how to do anything.
I teach my kids how to do.
We did the hoses.
We replaced all the hoses.
I do everything with the kids.
So I got an electric shear, and I took my son out back, and one of us almost lost a hand.
And I'm like, there's a reason I don't teach this stuff.
You know, if you want to come to my yard, I will teach you.
Yeah, that sounds really appealing.
The other thing I'm doing this week, besides some Trebekah stuff and this and that, is I'm going to be guest host of The View.
I love that.
I think that's perfect for you.
Yeah.
I like it too.
I love the Whoopi Goldberg.
I like the whole team.
Yeah.
By the way, they give great TV.
They do.
That is an outstanding.
You've been great on it.
You've had great times when you're there.
They're so nice to me, and I like the mix.
And they used to bring in like a dumb Republican that they could all scream at, kind of what CNN does.
Let's bring on a racist and have a bunch of B-league progressives scream at him.
That's the formula there.
They now have smart conservatives.
Alyssa.
Alyssa Farah.
Yeah, she's great.
She's great.
I love her.
So I think they've done a great job.
Which should I wear?
You definitely have a distinct style.
I do.
Now, it's awful, but it's distinct.
Well, I am a guest host of The View.
I think I'll be good.
It'd be interesting.
I really enjoy them.
I always have a good time there.
Everyone's like, oh, the declining broadcast.
I'm like, that's a good show.
That's a solidly fucking good show.
Nothing just as an author.
Nothing moves books.
Like, in general, podcasts.
But if you're looking for quick hits.
View and Bill Maher.
The View, Bill Maher, and actually a close third would be Morning Joe.
A lot of people still watch Morning Joe.
Yeah.
Anyway.
Well, anyway, let's get to the news.
Yeah, I'm excited.
I'm going to try not to make a penis joke.
With just a week to go before Maine's, speaking of penises, Maine's Senate primary, Graham Plattner, the presumptive Democratic candidate, is facing his latest controversy.
Multiple outlets reported over the weekend that Plattner's wife told a campaign aide last year that her husband sent sexually explicit texts to several women outside.
The marriage, by the way, this campaign person had a falling out with Plattner and has dropped a dime, which has its own ethical considerations.
Plattner is calling these reports gossip from a former staffer and accused the media of journalistic malpractice.
As of this recording, none of the women involved in the text exchanges have come forward.
Plattner's wife, Amy Gertner, released a video, which I thought was fascinating, over the weekend defending her husband and their marriage.
Let's listen, because it was really quite something to listen to.
It makes me really angry, disappointed, and I find it really shameful that there's a group of media outlets and people who are willing to spread gossip instead of talking about real issues that Graham is running on, like health care and education and child care.
As I said, it's the, you know, this has been a controversial campaign.
You know, he reportedly has an active account on Kix, a private message up sometimes used for sexing.
He's faced scrutiny, of course, about his Nazi symbol tattoo.
He later expressed regret and covered it up.
There were posts from a deleted Reddit account recently, all manner of jokes about sexual assault.
And he's also apologized for that.
It's a really interesting issue, and lots of people disagree on this.
I'll tell you what I think in a second, but there's...
Plattner appears to be the real chance of unseating Republican Susan Collins, who is the zombie of all senators.
He's been leading in recent polls.
I personally, I'm going to just very quickly say, I think voters don't care about this.
I don't, and I thought his wife handled it well.
I have others.
I had an argument with Amanda this weekend.
She doesn't like the Nazi tattoo.
She doesn't like this.
I feel as if the husband and wife are working it out, it reminded me a little when Hillary Clinton did, should I stand by my man when he had those Jennifer Flowers things?
Reminds me a little bit of that.
Turned out to be a pretty good president.
Not everything, not, of course, the Monica Lewinsky stuff, but it's a really interesting question.
I don't get bothered by it as much, none of it.
I think he's, as Amanda Littman correctly said, he's someone who had a drinking problem as a Marine, probably got that tattoo, has some mental health challenges, which he's trying to overcome, marriage problems, which his wife is insisting they're going to counselors and overcoming.
I'm not so sure in the era of Trump this matters at all.
So what do you think?
Look, okay.
Every election is a choice, not a marriage proposal.
We're not hiring a priest.
We're hiring a senator.
Do you think that, do you want to make sure that women's rights aren't continuing to be rolled back?
Do you want a more responsible economic policy?
Do you want different approaches to labor that raise the wages of nurses and students?
Do you want something regarding fiscal sanity?
Do you want to stop, have a check against the unfettered, unprecedented corruption?
But we're going to talk about fucking tattoos and sexting.
I mean, the obsession with personal purity has become a luxury belief.
And folks, if your house is on fire, you don't ask whether the firefighter has problematic DMs.
Now, having said that, the comms person for the Platner campaign should be fired.
You don't go after media.
You don't say this is gossip.
You don't say these are texts.
He said it was.
It was journalistic malpractice.
Guess what?
These texts are accurate.
Right.
The reporting has been accurate.
Good for you, Scott.
The response should be the following.
I am an imperfect man.
I have demonstrated terrible judgment on several occasions in my marriage, and I have a great marriage.
What about you?
What about you?
Are we going to continue to have one strike and you're out?
I'm a Jew.
I don't love a Tottenkamp tattoo.
Okay, if he gets drunk one night and gets a stupid fucking tattoo, the fact that he's trying to protect our liberties the next day and might be blown up by an IED, he gets a hall pass.
So, okay, folks, if you want to keep applying purity tests, we end up with an incompetent running against a 9-11 denier in Los Angeles.
We're not going to have any candidates running.
One, stop the purity tests.
And two, the Plattner campaign, it's not the crisis that brings people down.
It's their inability to own it.
I fucked up.
Did you watch his wife's thing?
I thought it was, it reminded me a lot of the Hillary.
Remember when Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton sat down?
When they sat down together?
Yeah, on 60 Minutes.
Yeah, it was really interesting to me.
It had a lot of echoes of that.
I thought, you know, someone said to me, like, oh, she looks like someone whose wife's in denial.
I'm like, no, I think she seems to not be in denial.
She understands his problems.
And I think it just reminded me a great deal of that.
And there's, you know, as a person, you can have, as a personal thing, you can have comments about people.
On a political thing, I'm like, I want to talk about this idea of imperfect allies that you and I have talked about, obviously, I'd heard it.
first from Sarah McBride, but Representative Sarah McBride, who has plenty of reasons to be angry to people and isn't.
She's a writer named David Gate posted about it on Substack.
Let me read a quote.
Working with someone toward a shared goal does not require believing they are morally perfect, requires believing the goal itself matters enough to justify strategic alignment.
He goes on to say the planet is on fire, as you noted just now, Scott, while many people are still conducting background checks on one another's vibes.
Talk about that concept because it's a really difficult one for many people to get around.
This guy, many people supported him.
Others were like, no, we have to have background checks.
So what do you think about that?
Can people get to that idea of, I guess, forgiving people for their imperfections?
One of the reasons we're seeing a crash in birth rates is a lack of dancing.
And that is, A dancing is a key component or a key mating ritual.
And when you dance, typically it helps if you drink a little bit.
The anti-alcohol movement is hurting it, but more than anything, and there was a wonderful TikTok on this by some young man, and I thought, God, this is so powerful.
People have a camera on them all the time.
19-year-old men don't want to dance because they're worried about, or they don't want to take risks, like dancing, like approaching a romantic potential.
expressing romantic interest because they're worried one false move and you're out.
Everything in a digital world.
So unless we move to at least some basic notion of as our digital world increases and everything we've done is going to be recorded and potentially used against us unless we have a little bit more grace.
And okay, what's interesting here is that I just hope the same thing holds.
And that is if the Republicans decide the best candidate for a Senate seat in Texas, is someone whose wife divorced him on biblical grounds.
If they can...
And who has a history of fraud.
And if we can decide that this guy can have his finger on the button and be the most powerful person in the world while he's banging adult movie stars while his wife is home nursing, and to a certain extent, I'm kind of like, I don't care if the pilot is a good person.
I want someone who's really good at flying the fucking plane.
Yeah.
So I think the same thing needs to go to our politics.
I just hope that the same, what I'll call, focus on perceived effectiveness is the same for Democrats.
And I am still ripshit angry at Senator Gillibrand, who thought a seven-minute run for president was worth kicking Senator Al Franken out.
The Democrats want to walk around and say, well, we'll have our dignity.
Okay, hold on to your dignity.
as a 15-year-old has her pelvis broken because she's forced to carry a child to term.
But yeah, you kicked Plattner out.
Is there something that there should be a line?
Like, obviously.
I think at some point.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, let me put it this way.
If Graham Plattner was, you know, it ended up that he was kind of fond of wearing a white hood and was constantly engaging in anti-Semitic behavior, then that...
That tattoo isn't an errant mistake from a youthful soldier.
It's a pattern.
The corruption of the Trump family is a pattern.
This is not, this is, this speaks to their character.
But folks, all of us have made mistakes.
I mean, okay, Barack Obama doesn't appear.
We can't seem to find a mistake on President Obama.
I can, but go ahead.
Well, okay.
But you know what I mean.
Yeah.
It's a scandal.
Powerful men are under the illusion that they mistake kindness for sexual interest.
And as they become more powerful, power corrupts and they're more likely to believe that they're immune from standard norms and engage in stupid, reckless behavior.
By the way, more women do that than they get credit for.
I will argue that it infects a lot more men than women.
But, you know, Secretary Noem was banging her number two on government property.
Yeah, she did a lot of work for that.
She counts for 10 men, I have to say.
Oh, man.
Look, I saw this and I was like, okay, at what point?
I'm hoping we've passed the purity test on the Democratic side.
But more than anything, I want to call the Plattner campaign and say, Own it.
Stop attacking.
Yes, stop attacking the press.
Don't say it's gossip or it's not accurate reporting.
Just don't do that.
It's been corroborated.
I think the point they were trying to make is, shouldn't we be focusing on the important issues?
And that's all they needed to say.
I think the first part should have been removed, right?
Just say, you know what?
We get why people might stare at this.
It feels like a traffic accident, and it kind of is.
But...
Let's focus on the real matters.
I have a question.
Do you think we're imperfect allies?
Imperfect allies.
Yeah, like people you don't always agree with everything, but yet they're allies.
I think you, I think that, I mean, the reality is, Cara, is we're both progressives.
Right, but we do disagree on things, yeah.
Yeah, where the real progress needs to be is between moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans.
I mean, if the two, you know, on almost every major issue, you and I are within.
two basis points of each other in terms of actually what we believe.
We might believe in tech, you know, we might have differences around text and tone or whatever, but what really, what we really need, I mean, a couple of things.
One, I think this is, we have to, from a young age, start thinking, all right, folks, unless you want to live a life with a fake user account and VPN for fear you ever do anything wrong, we're going to have to demonstrate more grace with each other.
The Democrats, Applying these purity tests to themselves, it's just like the Republicans are just laughing that we would do this.
I'm kind of like, people be naughty.
Like, people be naughty.
Have at it.
But the thing that really, the Plattner campaign, Graham Plattner should do the following.
I've had, I've demonstrated terrible judgment numerous times.
Which he has on other issues, yeah.
Numerous times in my professional and personal life.
I've also served my country.
I think I'd be a great senator.
And by the way.
I have a fantastic marriage.
Yeah.
So have at it, folks.
If you want to engage in this stuff, I realize it's titillating, have at it.
All he's doing and his campaigner doing is keeping the story alive by denying it and by attacking the media.
I don't.
think there's anything wrong with the media reporting this.
Because, well, I do have a, I have to say, I'd like to know, I'd like to know a little more about this campaign person who keeps dropping dimes on this guy and what her agenda is.
I have to say, she's been doing it a lot.
She wants to really...
She's angry.
She's mad.
And I want to know, I'd like to know about her in specifics.
Also, that's what I would say the media needs to do a little bit more because I need to understand what the source's motivations are.
And she's not here to protect us, I don't think.
Anyway, let's move on.
Self-help podcaster Jay Shetty has signed a deal to bring a video version of his show exclusively to Spotify and Netflix.
Another one of these deals, which is interesting.
The deal is reportedly worth over $100 million over multiple years.
Who knows?
Shetty and his previous partner, iHeart.
media parted ways.
They could not come to terms.
This is something happening.
Obviously, Scott and I went through a bunch of this, not this amount of money, but it's a really interesting that Netflix and Spotify.
Tara, I hate to break it to you, but over five years, we're getting more than this.
Oh, okay.
And that's why we're imperfect allies, as you realize.
I'm bank.
Yeah, we're pretty high on the news list this week, I was noticing.
We're moving up.
We still haven't passed Megyn Kelly, but we will.
We're coming for you, Megyn.
We're coming for you, Megyn.
And not like that way.
In any way, physically or...
No, in the Apple podcast ranking charts.
In the Apple podcast ranking charts.
Let's be definitive.
Let's be clear so you don't make a show out of it.
But talk about these deals because they're really – because you can't go on YouTube.
It's all of them, right?
Is that – and he did it the normal way, which is an iHeart deal.
You could do those.
There's a bunch of companies like this.
But now this is for Spotify and Netflix, which is interesting.
And Spotify had tried – you know, the Rogan thing, obviously.
They signed a bunch of deals that didn't work out, you know.
So talk a little bit about this.
How do you look at this market right now?
And what do these indicate to you?
Well, first off, let me just say with Jay, I'm really happy for him.
I don't know him well, but I know him.
I've been on his podcast a couple times.
I think he's a lovely man.
And I think he does a good job.
And essentially what he realized is the most valuable media asset in podcasting isn't sports like it is on cable TV.
It's loneliness.
He figured out how to monetize the largest market in America, and that is people who need a friend.
And so, okay, so I'm happy for Jay.
I think he does a great job.
And by the way, I cannot get over, and I think it's total bullshit, all the hate that Jay and Mel Robbins get.
They get a lot.
And it's just like, okay, don't listen to their podcasts.
They're not bad people.
Yeah, that's how I feel.
I'm not a big fan of them.
I mean, I like Mel personally, but I get why people find it annoying.
It's a little bit fun.
Fine, then don't listen to it.
I was literally in an elevator and someone says, do you know Mel Robbins?
I find her very annoying.
I'm like, okay.
Then don't listen.
That's what I said.
It was literally apropos of nothing.
If you go on TikTok.
I mean, the reality is any bestselling author, if you say bestselling author is full of shit, you get elevated in the rating.
So people are shitposting every bestselling author to get another 70 bucks from fucking TikTok.
Have at it.
But I've never understood the hate for Jay and Mel.
I think they're both nice people doing their best, doing good work.
And if you don't like their work, which I understand it's not for everybody, you know, the whole kind of.
Monk rap gets a little bit old sometimes.
I'm not a fan of the self-help stuff.
Yeah, fine.
Then don't listen.
That's fine.
But there's two things here.
This dynamic that's colliding is the following.
The fastest growing ad-supported medium is not even YouTube in terms of revenue or meta.
It's podcasts.
I think the ad revenue is going to be up 21% this year on podcasting.
In addition, 40% of...
I think about 20% of ours and 40% of Profit G Markets pods are watched or listened to on a TV because they're streamed off of YouTube.
So essentially what a podcast is, it's a television show for 10% of the production value or cost.
So the means of production of TV is being arbed into podcasting.
And now 55% of Americans have listened to a podcast recently.
So in addition.
The intimacy of the relationship advertisers really like and the CPMs for Pivot are $45.
The CPMs for CNN are $13.
And then you combine it with the following.
There's this dirty secret of podcasting called the RSS feed.
And slowly but surely you build up subscribers.
And every time a show comes out, it's automatically downloaded to an iPhone and it's counted as a listen.
So the people who've been in it.
for three, five, 10 years as you have, who have built large RSS feeds, have moats.
So what you have is a series of acquirers going, we need growth, let's go find a podcast and a small number of podcasts that actually have large RSS feeds because you cannot...
You know, when Landman comes out, it's a hit overnight.
It's hard for a podcast.
If you look at the top 10 podcasts, even in any category, they're usually the original gangsters or the people who've been around for a while.
You're absolutely right.
So you have demand and you have sequestered or pretty big moats.
which all adds up to large acquisition prices relative to their revenues.
I bet Jay does 10 to 20 million a year.
So he's getting sold at 10 to five times revenues, which is a lot.
But you're about to see, and we've been predicting this and I'm talking our own book here, but I've been saying this for the last two years.
There just aren't, when Spotify, iHeart, Sirius, and James Murdoch go looking for podcasts.
There aren't that many of scale.
It is the cost structure, which people don't understand.
And it is television because our YouTube audience revenues are growing pretty smartly.
And it's a really interesting way to deliver news.
It's what people want, which is why you're saying the podification of network news.
I just don't think it's going to work.
I think you either just have to go this way or not.
I don't think you can.
switch that audience over because they're older and they like the way it is.
So you're going to see these declines like you see at CBS because they don't like the new stuff you're doing.
It's kind of just like you need to do a hard reset with a lot of this stuff.
But I agree.
I think it's interesting and they can actually usually make the money back.
But the foregoing of YouTube versus Netflix is a really interesting and it'll depend on what your product is at any one time, whether you want to sort of be in the safe harbor of Netflix.
Netflix, Spotify, or you want to be out in the open in a YouTube, Google world, essentially.
People can mix and match, too, by the way, which is what's great about it, right, presumably?
All the most powerful.
Oh, I'm seeing your giant hand there.
Look at that.
Put your big hand up there.
Oh, oh, oh.
I'm very self-conscious of my hands.
They're nice.
I have my mother's hands.
My hands.
In the competition for my worst feature, it is the Olympics.
I mean, there's a lot of competitors.
Yeah.
But my hands are right up there.
I'm very soul conscious of my hands.
That's why I don't wear jewelry.
They're perfectly nice.
Anyways, so Netflix, I think, is the most powerful media company in the world, or traditional media company.
And they're getting into podcasting.
And overnight, they're going to be able to, whoever they.
decide to distribute or acquire, overnight, that podcast is going to be, I mean, they'll be the new king and queen makers of podcasting.
I thought it was bad news for iHeart.
I'll tell you that.
I think that's right.
I don't think iHeart, iHeart is a company that's gone, I think, through bankruptcy once or twice, and they have to be economically rational.
They don't have access to cheap capital.
So if iHeart shows up and Spotify and Netflix show up to a bidding war, I don't know who wins.
I just know iHeart loses.
iHeart can't justify the valuations these guys can justify, even a serious.
Basically, I think you're going to see Spotify and Netflix take the whole value of the podcast ecosystem up.
And not only that, if your podcast does 10 million downloads a month, you're worth four times the podcast that does 5 million because it is so hard in this environment.
to find scale.
It's very similar to cable TV in the sense that there's a small number of personalities who extract the majority of the economics.
And it's the same in podcasting.
Absolutely.
But I want to finish where I started.
I'm really happy for Jay.
I like it when people...
He's been in the business for 10 years.
He's a nice man.
He has worked at it.
Yeah, he has worked at it.
Good for him.
Yeah.
Well, just don't listen to him if you don't like him.
That's my feeling on a lot of things.
That's right.
He and I have been sexting in related news.
On Kix.
Kix is a dirty.
He's dreamy.
Let me just tell you.
He's dreamy.
He has the most beautiful eyes.
Platinum definitely picked the dirty one.
I'll just say.
Oh, my God.
He picked the dirty one.
Kix is dirty.
Is there?
I don't know anything about it.
How would you even know that?
I don't know any of these platforms.
Because I know all these sites.
I don't use any of them.
Really?
Do you go on and talk about it?
I feel.
You offer to power wash other lesbians' backyard, you little saucy minx you.
Scott, I fixed my power washer this weekend.
I was very excited.
Anyway.
So just on that note, before we go, I think the new thing, a guy asked me for dating advice, and he's like, I'm never going to graduate from college.
What, will I ever be able to find a woman?
And I'm like, I think the new sexy is blue collar romance.
And that is no poetry.
Don't send a car for her.
Fix her fucking refrigerator.
I think that gets women really hot.
Look at a woman's stressors and treat them like they're your enemy.
Fill up her car with gas.
All right.
Okay.
I think if you want to get a woman, I think humor is the ultimate aphrodisiac with women behind maybe money.
But I think a decent runner up.
is to look at a woman's acts of service.
And if you know how to fix shit, you know, move your girlfriend, show up and fix the air conditioner.
Like attack her problems like they're your enemies.
I like it.
Self-help from Scott Galloway.
Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break.
When we come back, big IPO news from Anthropic.
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Scott, we're back with breaking news.
Anthropic just confidentially filed its IPO with the SEC.
It has not disclosed the size or terms of the offering.
I'm excited for you to read it for me and tell me what's in there.
But before that, Anthropic hit a major milestone last week, passing OpenAI to become the most valuable AI startup in the world.
The company announced a $65 billion funding round.
I can't believe I'm saying billion.
A round that values $965 billion, very close to.
Very close to the top.
To put things in perspective, OpenAI announced a $730 billion valuation back in February, but it took the company to around a decade to reach that number.
It just keeps escalating.
Anthropic, which was founded five years ago, has beaten the valuation in half the time.
Did anyone see this coming?
Scott Galloway did.
Let's listen to Scott's prediction from February.
As we sit here today, I actually think that Anthropic, or in the next 12 months, this is one of our predictions, is going to be worth more than OpenAI.
Very well done.
What does this valuation mean for Anthropics IPO as well as OpenAI and SpaceX?
By the way, SpaceX is now targeting an IPO valuation of $1.8 trillion after feedback from advisors and investors, according to Bloomberg.
That's a step down from the initially reported $2 trillion.
It's still too much.
Anyway, thoughts?
What do you think?
You got that one right.
And we'll be looking at the filing when we get to be able to see it, but we don't know a lot yet.
I don't think any company in the world has the momentum right now of Anthropics.
It was built a genius move.
They went after the enterprise market.
And I mean, the pivot, you have never seen a number two this viciously become the number one this fast.
Yeah.
You've never seen Hertz overtake, you know, you've never seen Avis overtake Hertz this fast.
You've never seen Pepsi overtake Coke like this, this fast.
And the thing that's so impressive about this isn't the valuation, it's the speed.
Google took 20 years to reach a trillion dollars.
Anthropic got there in five.
It was founded in 2021.
And if it had been founded in Amsterdam, it would be one of the five most valuable companies in Europe.
And it did it in five years.
I mean, it's not capital formation.
It's financial teleportation.
Five years, zero to a trillion dollars.
So we keep talking about how AI might transform the world.
Maybe, maybe not, but it's definitely transforming capital formation.
And, I mean, the one advantage America has is that we will do these $60 billion rounds after two or three years.
And in Europe, they just don't have that type of capital formation.
I want you to give me the downside, because you definitely called this, but what would be the worry for you of maybe all three IPOs or this one?
What would be?
The warning signs are something you would pay attention to because you're not always fully like up and to the right as a person.
These stocks and the collective hallucination around the valuations here, one or more of these stocks is going to be off 40 to 70 percent and it's going to send the U.S.
and the global economy into a recession.
The U.S.
has become a giant bet on AI and these companies are overvalued.
The technology will survive.
These valuations won't.
There's just, I'm sorry, SpaceX at 100 times revenues?
You know, open AI at, what's going on at 20?
Every big company we follow has, in the last 10 years, been off between 40 and 70% in a 12-month period.
That's fine.
That's part of the cycle of high-growth companies, up and down.
The difference here is that we've imbed the entire economy on these Magnificent 10.
93% of our GDP growth is coming from AI CapEx.
So when these companies, you know, they would say, if the American economy sneezes, the world catches a cold, we're going to catch fucking pneumonia when the expectations.
An MIT professor just came out with a study saying 95% of CFOs aren't seeing the ROI on their investments in AI.
As we noted last week with the Uber COO, right, talking about it.
So the danger here is the following.
Folks.
I think Anthropic is the only one of these three that has a reasonable shot at trading above its IPO price 12 months out.
There's just gravity.
No basketball player has ever been in the air for more than one second.
For some reason, one second is the limit.
None of these companies can justify.
their valuation unless they are able to literally destroy the labor market.
I just got off a podcast with the CEO of Lilly and I said, AI as it relates to drug discovery, underhyped or overhyped?
This is a measure guy and he's like, overhyped.
The incentives from Amazon that the more tokens you use, the more will compensate you, that shit's about to go away.
And the first big company that announces we're cutting back our AI spending?
You know, you're going to see the GDP of Germany come out of the market.
And unfortunately, the U.S.
market, you know, we used to say.
It's frothy because of that, because of that.
We're now concentrated, the entire U.S.
economy is a bet on 10 companies.
You know, I have to say, months ago, Mark Cuban said there's going to be a point where tokens would be more expensive than people.
I think it's already happened.
And he wanted me to ask Dario that question.
Yeah, yeah.
It's a great question.
He was like, I was interviewing him at an offsite thing, and he's like, that's the question.
When do people cost less than tokens?
And tokens are getting too expensive, which is interesting.
Anyway, we'll see what happens, but I'm excited for you to read it for me.
All right, let's go on a quick break.
When we come back, some updates on America's 250th celebration.
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Scott, we're back with more news.
America's 250th birthday will now be a mega rally, apparently.
President Trump called for canceling the concert series at the planned event after several musicians dropped out.
Instead, because they were told it was nonpartisan, it's obviously not nonpartisan.
Instead, Trump suggested he should headline the event, calling himself the number one attraction anywhere in the world.
But there's a lot, you know, and now his name is going to be yanked off the Kennedy Center.
A judge has ordered his name to be taken down.
Again, a lot of performative stuff, but still irritating.
Any predictions for the 250th celebration?
It feels like no one's any closer.
He is not backing down on celebrating himself, including a $250 bill.
Scott Besson has soiled himself once again.
So, thoughts?
Yeah, you know, it's obnoxious, and we'd like to think that it's bad for him.
But, you know, I hate to admit it, if someone thinks about brands a lot, you could make an argument that...
The most successful consumer brand of the last decade isn't Tesla, Apple, or Nike.
It's Trump.
He's put it out.
He's used the presidency to...
That's the right analogy.
It used to be a public office, and now it's increasingly an entertainment franchise.
Yeah.
And I think he has...
I just think Democrats...
Like Robert McNamara said, if you want to defeat an enemy, you have to empathize with them.
There's just no getting around it.
The guy has an incredible feel for branding.
and marketing and the product is awful it is it is like the greatest brain what he's been able to do with this shitty a product and inconsistent product the steaks the water it's it really is um It really is incredible.
I think this is, quite frankly, I think this comes and goes.
I don't think it's a big story.
What do you think?
I think it makes us all feel bad about America on the 250th anniversary.
I mean, I'm going to be somewhere far away from Washington.
And I just think, I think all these artists pulling out was interesting.
They were like, yeah, no.
I think they see what's coming.
Are you going to Vermont?
Is that where all those things go?
Yes, that's where I'm going.
That's where I'm going.
Exactly where I'm going.
going.
It's Amanda's family.
Did I get that right?
You did.
Oh, my God.
Stereotypes are for a reason.
They're for a reason.
Amanda's family has rebuilt their barn.
They had a barn house, and it was going to fall down, and they rebuilt it, and it's very lovely.
And so we're going up there.
That's where we're going.
I can't believe I got that right.
You totally got that right.
Oh, my God.
Anyway, I'll tromp around and hike.
You got the dog guard for the German Shepherd in the back of the Subaru.
No, I don't have a dog.
I would like to have a dog, maybe.
But they'd mess up my beautiful yard work.
So cats don't mess up yard work.
They just bring in chipmunks into the house.
No, I think it's just, you know, I remember, do you remember the 200th?
I do.
I do.
I thought it was nice.
I was a kid.
I was at camp.
I got a special commemorative coin from the Franklin Mint.
Yeah, I really liked the 200th, and I felt very proud of this country at the time.
And I feel like, ugh, why do you have to make everything so cheesy and grifty and gross?
Like, I'm excited for the 300th.
I'll be dead, but that's okay.
But, I mean, it's just, it feels like grifty and gross.
Although I did recently run into.
You might be around, actually.
I'm going to call a challenge on that.
You'll be 113.
No, I will not be around for that.
Anyway, I just ran into Ken Burns at something.
And he always makes me feel better.
I just always, I want to hang out with Ken Burns in Vermont and go hiking.
That's what I want to do.
Because I like listening to him tell tales of our founding fathers.
And I feel better.
Well, but just to that point.
If you want to feel better about America and the space we're in, and we're incredible narcissists.
We like to think that we're in uniquely good or uniquely bad times.
Folks, as bad as things are, things have been much worse in America, and we've always been able to come back stronger.
Yeah.
And it's not to say you don't need to vote, you don't need to be alarmed, you don't need to take action.
But at one point, 1% of America, the American population, controlled the government, and it happened to be the slave owners.
80 years ago, we were interning people in makeshift concentration camps because their parents were, or because they immigrated from Japan.
We have been in pretty dark places before.
Yeah, yeah, we have.
Anyways, history makes me feel better.
Hang out with Ken Burns in Vermont.
That's my goal.
Anyway, last story.
Blue Origin is facing a major setback.
It's a new Glenn rocket exploded during a test on the launch pad last week.
The company said all personnel were safe and described the incident as an anomaly.
Jeff Bezos posted on X, very rough day, but will rebuild whatever needs rebuilding and get it back to flying.
It's worth it.
The explosion, which damaged Blue Origin.
version of Launchpad, which is a critical problem.
It's a significant blow.
They've spent about a billion dollars on it.
I think it's a...
Cape Canaveral, to challenge SpaceX in the commercial space race.
And one of the things about the New Glenn is they can put up, they're trying with their LEO system to put up lots of satellites.
They have a couple hundred and Space Starlink has, I don't know, 10,000 or close to 10,000.
And so they've been trying to do this and these New Glenn rockets would put up, I think, 48 or 50 as opposed to a couple that they put up in their smaller rockets.
You know, it's a real problem for the launch pad.
They only had one for the big one.
And for it to blow up on the launch pad, from what I understand, I've been talking to a lot of rocket people, is bad.
It should have blown up in the air, of all things, because then they would have been able to preserve the launch pad.
It's not great.
It's not a great thing.
And thank God Elon didn't go on and on about it, because he knows he blows up his own rockets frequently.
But it would be nice to have more than one.
in this area, although it's two of the same people, but still competition.
Thoughts?
I just couldn't wait.
Like, as soon as I saw the explosion, I immediately posted it on threads and said, Bezos back on CNBC again, which I thought was really good.
It didn't get that many likes, but I thought that was funny.
Like, my favorite, I always like to hear the live broadcast because the individual.
And they're trained to do this.
They always call an explosion an anomaly.
An anomaly, yeah.
Which is like calling my divorce a scheduling conflict.
It's like.
We can make jokes because nobody was killed.
A disagreement.
A mild disagreement.
A little metal mangled, yeah.
You know, and my favorite, it's like.
I don't fully understand, and this happens all the time, but when a rocket blows up on the launch pad, isn't that like failing a sobriety test in the parking lot?
Yeah.
I mean, I need to understand the physics, but just to be clear.
Not good.
One of the reasons private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin have succeeded or have caught in some way surpassed NASA is that they're allowed.
to move further out the risk curve and explode rockets on the launch pad.
If NASA did this, there's a feeling of government failure.
They can't take these kinds of risks.
And to a certain extent, just as I feel like you need a certain number of bank failures every once in a while to show that you are allocating capital at close to or near the efficient frontier of growth, you do, I hate to say this, I think you do need a certain number of explosions on the launch pad.
Because what that says is, And by the way, my understanding is not a single person was injured or killed here.
That's right.
This is a loss of capital from a company that has access to a lot of capital.
It's not good.
It's not because they were trying to get like.
Think about it, a couple hundred versus 10,000 satellites.
Yeah, but Elon's had them explode.
This is a function of— No, no, no, but he has 10,000 satellites up there.
This is—everyone talks about Mars and everything else.
This is a race for satellite dominance.
Agreed.
Agreed.
But only one company dominates at this point.
And so it's a setback in that they can't get dozens of these things up.
They can get a couple on these smaller rockets.
And, you know, they're trying very hard.
It's just—it's still—someone, when they saw the explosion, said to me, oh, look, it's the Washington Post budget for a year.
Like, or something.
I was sort of laughed.
It's true.
He doesn't mind losing money here.
And he's losing money.
Let's be clear.
He's hoping for a payoff later.
Although looking at the rocket business, SpaceX is not the greatest business in the world right now yet either.
But Starlink is.
It's got to drive him crazy that he's behind.
He looks like he's behind a guy who's running six companies at the same time.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And right now.
you know, Blue Origin is looking less like NASA and more like, I don't know, Neiman Marcus with propulsion.
Yeah, true.
But you know, there's summer yachting to do, you know.
I don't know if you know that, but that's Bezos' job during the summer.
Good for him.
I've told you, I'm here for his midlife crisis.
Yeah, I know you like that.
I think I've gotten invited back to the event he goes to that I thought I was disinvited from because I thought Elon was going.
I'm not going to tell you because I don't want to get disinvited.
God, I never get invited.
Why do you get invited?
What do they think you're like?
Patsy?
They think they can turn me, I think.
Yes.
And by the way, I am a patsy.
You've listened to my interviews.
I think you can be turned, actually.
Part of me thinks that you can be.
Oh, no.
If I turn, it's going to be towards way the left.
Yeah, okay.
Every day I get a little bit more Bernie.
Oh, wow.
Okay.
All right.
No, but...
People are always coming for you.
It really irritates me.
Especially because they're irritating people that come for you.
Coming for you, you mean hating on me or inviting me to shit?
No, wanting you to do stuff.
I'm very irritated.
That bothers you.
I like that.
That bothers me.
I'm like, get your mitts off my imperfect ally.
You know, dick jokes are always welcome at conferences.
Get your mitts off my imperfect ally.
No, no.
I told a dick joke while Anthony Blinken was on stage.
That was a moment.
Oh, okay.
I like him.
He's very handsome, by the way.
He's a nice, he's a handsome man.
I think people are scared of you.
I think they're less scared of me.
I don't know.
And they know I like to drink.
I bring a good vibe.
All right.
Okay, fine.
I'm not unfun.
I'm going on The View.
Anyway.
No, that is true.
That's a big, you know what?
That's a, you would rather be invited to be on The View than go to this thing.
You're right.
You're right.
But I like to just, because I like to see their discomfort when I'm there.
Because I never really do anything.
I'm quite cordial.
Oh, speaking of invitations and bringing this back to me, I'm going to Brilliant Minds next week.
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Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails.
Should you go first?
No, you go first.
I've been doing all the talk.
Okay, I'm going to win.
I just interviewed this young man, Theo Baker.
It's right here.
This is his book.
How to Rule the World.
And it's about, it's education and power at Stanford University.
This is the kid who did all those stories as a 17-year-old on the head of Stanford, being part of a...
He didn't falsify the information, but several papers he had his name on did, and he never moved to correct them.
He's the son of two well-known Washington reporters.
I'm not going to say their names because he's his own person.
Wonderful book about power.
He's a technologist who loves technology.
He's also an astonishing reporter.
Just a great...
really great.
I felt so good for journalism.
He started off as a, and just really, it's doing, it got amazing reviews, How to Rule the World.
Theo Baker, he's very young.
He's just graduating Stanford in two weeks, although he's just run right over them with his amazing reporting.
And this is a really interesting book, including about this one group.
called How to Rule the World, the course, the secret course that you have to get tapped for at Stanford, and how they made so many misshapen entrepreneurs, mentally misshapen entrepreneurs.
And I just, it's nice to hear from a young person in this regard.
And I just think he's a really, he has a big career ahead of him.
That's nice.
Yeah.
And Amy Pascal has bought the book for Mubi.
The kids are all right.
I always, when I did this interview, I felt the kids are fucking all right.
That's nice.
And it extends also to my kids.
Alex is killing it at his job.
I can't say where it is, but it's a big car company.
And he's loving it.
And the enthusiasm is enormous.
And Louie is working in a restaurant in San Francisco, and he loves it in a political campaign.
So the kids are fucking all right.
That's what I feel good about.
Can't name the car company.
Let me get this.
He went to Michigan.
There's a lot of them.
I don't know.
He's having a great time.
He's having a great time.
He's learning.
so much and it's really wonderful for him.
He asked me not to, so I'm not going to.
Okay.
Okay, my fail is, I do think it's around this Graham Plattner thing and Amanda and I did have a disagreement about it.
She's quite irritated by him.
Did you have hot sex after?
No, no, we did not.
We were exhausted from all the children's parties and my power washing.
Let me say...
I know people don't like it, but at some point, we just have to— I know people are going to say, we have to have purity tests.
Coming from white lady Cara, old white lady Cara, who has money, etc., I don't care.
I never have cared for— zeroing in on people's personal issues.
I can have personal feelings about it, like friends who have shitty boyfriends or whatever.
But Graham Plattener's wife is not my friend.
I might have a different piece of advice for her if that was the case.
But I just feel like it's their business.
Even with Ken Paxton, I think he's more the fraudulent stuff with his wife.
It sounds like he's a liar and a cheat in that way he...
handle it and treated her, which says a lot about his judgment.
And I think that's pertinent.
But I almost don't care even about that.
And although there are some things to learn.
And so I think the judginess of people has really got to stop.
And not only because the Republicans do it.
That's not the reason to do it.
It's not kind.
And it's not, and it's not, there is a goal here.
And we cannot make people feel like shit all the time for mistakes.
I've made mistakes.
Scott's made mistakes.
We're all imperfect, and that's what I think about.
So it's a failure of our country to continue down that road.
We have to leave some things behind.
My win, I just interviewed the CEO of Eli Lilly, a guy named David Ricks, and I'm just fascinated with Lilly.
They made a huge bet on GLP-1 drugs as, you know, I think a revolutionary.
I think GLP-1 is going to be a more important technology than AI.
And this company is...
quintupled its market cap in the last five years.
And one of the things I absolutely, because they made a big bet on GLP-1, GLP-1s just 12 months ago were averaging $1,000 a month.
They've already been cut to $250 to $500.
It's a definition of elasticity.
I think at some point these drugs are going to be less than $100 a month and maybe even lower than that.
And I think the demand will absolutely explode.
So I think the market is doing a really good job here of trying to get these drugs to the people who need them most.
And I think these drugs are just absolutely revolutionary in terms of everything from obviously from obesity, but reduction in alcoholism, biting your nails or giving it to kids with social media addictions.
You know, I think it's not about eating less.
It's about wanting less.
I'm fascinated by these things.
And this company, Eli Lilly, is the first trillion dollar or is the first pharmaceutical company to breach a trillion dollars.
It's the 13th most valuable company in the world.
And the thing I love about this place, it's not in San Francisco.
It's not in New York.
It's not in London.
Do you know where their headquarters are?
I don't.
Where are they?
Indianapolis.
Oh, cool.
And this guy kind of reeks of, he went to Purdue, followed love of his life to Indiana, where he went to the Kelly School.
They employed 50,000 people.
It's easily the most important company in Indiana, if not the Midwest.
But we spend so much time talking about the Bay Area or New York, and I just love a trillion-dollar company.
That's a great interview for you.
That's a great interview.
You have been a very early person on GLP-1.
I find them absolutely fascinating.
Talk to someone who uses AI for their work and just loves it.
And if that person is also on GLP-1, ask them what's had a bigger impact on their life.
If I could go short AI and long GLP-1, that would be my investment thesis for the next decade.
Anyway.
Great company.
CEO just reeks of kind of Midwestern values, and I'm glad they're just doing so well.
I think they've made a huge bet and it's paying off in spades.
My fail was going to be what you said.
I personally don't trust anyone who hasn't said something stupid or drank too much at some point or, I don't know, had failings in their mail.
I always wonder, okay, should we stab this person with a fork to see if they're actually human when they present this?
pure image of themselves.
And I'm sure those people are out there, but you're, you know, they're by the grace of God go I.
And if you want, if you want better candidates, folks, focus on whether they'd be a good fucking senator.
They're not, they don't need to be your rabbi.
Like, do you think they're smart around policy?
Do you think they demonstrate good leadership skills?
And if you look at the best leaders in terms of actually moving America forward, sometimes they're not exactly priests.
I mean, Anyway, but where my fail is, you summarized that more articulately than I did.
But where I go is the real fail?
Jesus Christ.
Yep.
Platner, just own it.
Own it.
Own it.
Own it.
I've made a mistake.
I've demonstrated terrible judgment in my marriage.
Boy, yes, me too.
And I have a great marriage.
Yeah.
And guess what?
The majority of people in America who have demonstrated terrible judgment in relationships can still have great marriages.
And it says something about her.
It says something about me.
Or you get better.
I have to say I'm better at this marriage, although not perfect either, by the way.
I have a lot of failings.
But you get better.
Yeah, as you get older, you do get better.
I agree.
You get better.
Yeah, said my.
Anyways.
But anyway, I just, we always, these candidates fail and.
Crisis communications is so easy, yet everyone gets it wrong.
Own the issue.
Acknowledge the problem.
Own it.
But all they've done is they've kept it alive in the cycle by denying it and attacking the media.
They couldn't have, in my opinion.
Again, it's not about the scandal, folks.
It's how you handle it.
That's it.
Anyway, so that's my fail.
They're mad.
They're mad.
What do you want?
Anyway, that was a great one.
We want to hear from you.
Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind.
Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855- 5.1 Pivot and elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe this week and on with Kara Swisher, I talked to former NPR host Audie Cornish and Ari Shapiro, who have reunited for a new CNN cultural podcast called Engagement Party.
Audie says the goal is to help people get out of the cultural silos, speaking of that, that social media puts us in.
Let's listen to a clip.
I'm doing this kind of show to jailbreak the algorithm.
I hate the For You page.
My kingdom for an actual search that works.
I don't like the word feed.
Like everything about the way they have structured social media in the last 10 to 15 years bothers me deeply.
You know, the only word that they say user.
What's the other industry that uses the word user?
Drugs.
Exactly.
Like all those.
I do the same thing.
I'm like, yeah, feed, user, like just everything about it.
Content.
Content.
It's just, they hate us.
It was really fun.
It was actually a really fun interview with the two of them.
She's very talented.
She is, and so is Ari.
Ari is terrific, too.
Really interesting pairing.
They're trying to do pivot, but less dick jokes.
Well, then fuck them.
Fuck them.
Fuck them.
They can't get there.
Thank you, Arian, Audien.
Good luck.
Okay, that's the show.
Thanks for listening to Pivot.
Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
We'll be back on Friday.
Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Todd Wiseman.
Aaliyah Jackson engineered this episode.
Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Miss Rivera, and Dan Chalon, the Shakuraz Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.
Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform.
Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media.
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