# AI Commoditization, Geopolitical Trade Shifts, and Market Froth

**Podcast:** Pivot
**Published:** 2026-05-15

## Transcript

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That is the most Kara Swisher thing Kara Swisher has ever said.
Hi, everyone.
This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.
I'm Kara Swisher.
And I'm Scott Galloway.
Guess who I spent several wonderful days with this week?
Several.
Several.
I don't know.
Who?
My son, Alex.
Legs.
We had a great time.
I took him to New York.
I had to go up and interview Joanna Stern, who's written a book called I Am Not a Robot, which Alex really enjoyed.
It was at the 92nd Street Y.
But it was really nice.
And I have a new proposal for us, Scott.
I have a new idea.
I think it's really nice to spend quality time with one kid at a time.
Right?
To like do something.
You do that, don't you?
Like take one, not both, but like one special thing for like a day or two, whatever they want to do.
I think that's a great thing.
Pretty much every Saturday night I do dinner with one of them and I take trips.
I would say if it's not a family trip.
I do a trip with one of them, not both of them.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I thought that you do that.
And I was thinking that.
I was thinking that's a really good thing.
It was such a nice quality time to, and I don't like the word quality time, but it actually was.
It was where, because everyone's, you know, as you know, I have a talky family.
So everyone's competing for, you know, it's just a lot of people all at once, but it's just nice to have concentrated time with one kid at a time.
Yeah, it's nice.
Oh, I went, I went and saw Devil Wears Prada too.
And?
Took an edible, went and got.
Why?
Did you take your wife?
What was the cause of you going to see it?
I did my favorite thing in the world.
I'm here just solo with the kids.
I took an edible.
They didn't want to see it with me.
And they don't go to movies.
And I went and I ate at the bar at this place called Lina, which is this Italian restaurant at the bottom of Marlebone.
Or is it Marlebone High Street?
Yeah.
And then I walked over to the Selfridges Theaters.
And I got to admit, I liked it more than I thought.
I only walked out about after an hour.
No, stop.
True story.
I waited until I saw you.
I thought you looked really good.
I waited until I saw Justin.
I thought he nailed his part perfect, and then I peaced out.
You don't know what happened then in the end.
I know exactly what fucking happened.
It's the same goddamn movie again.
It's not.
There's no difference.
Not only that, you know what's really even stranger?
What?
They all look like they've been frozen.
They don't look any different.
They look good.
It was 20 years ago.
I know.
Don't they look great?
Everybody looks exactly the same.
Yeah.
But it's the same story.
Oh, there's Annie who wants to be a journalist, and she's been a journalist.
No, journalism's under attack.
No, you're wrong.
It's a huge global hit.
I love how you like try to trash.
Which doesn't mean it's good.
Marvel controls the box office.
No, no, no, no.
This is doing rather well.
All these individualized movies are doing really well.
And you love to resist it, but it's the case.
People are into story right now, very much so.
And like smaller story.
Yeah.
And you want to see something that's well done?
Watch Running Point, which also stars Justin.
It's great.
I love it.
Me too.
I watched the entire thing on the plane back from Europe.
Yeah.
It was such a walk down memory lane.
I moved to New York in 2000.
And that was literally the heyday of magazines.
And Condé Nast was the bell of the ball.
And it, I mean, it's such candy.
It reminded me, Francis Ford Coppola, maybe you remember this.
He did a movie.
It was three or four movies in one and the production values just dripped off the screen.
And it wasn't, it reminded me of that movie.
Oh, I think it was called New York Stories.
And it was just three different, it was in 1989 and it was three different sort of New York stories.
Such great talent, such great.
production values, but the stories just weren't that compelling.
That's how I felt about this.
I just enjoyed watching it because the fashion is so beautiful and it just takes you back to a really kind of, I think an iconic time.
You never realize you're in a golden age until it's gone.
Yeah, absolutely.
And this was sort of reminiscent of that golden age.
And they did pay some homage to the disruption of digital, talking about social media, but the talent.
The talent and the visuals and the cinematography and the fashion, and everyone's so fucking good looking, that's worth the whatever it was, 12 pounds.
But it's a pretty thin story.
Oh, I don't know.
I think Justin was fantastic.
He's great.
I think it was, you know, they're so good.
Like watching these people do their stuff is just completely personal.
A lot of talent.
Beautifully made is what I like.
Agreed.
You know, it's like looking at a beautifully made thing.
I thought it was actually a lot deeper.
And I thought, I think because of the interplay between Justin and Meryl Streep and that one scene, which you might have missed, was really amazing.
I didn't see that.
I did enjoy Meryl Streep having an HR person following her around.
I know.
I did enjoy that.
I feel like, you know what?
We'll finish this up, but I feel like I should get someone like that for you.
It's like, I want to kill myself.
You can't say that.
You can't say that.
Don't say that.
She was wonderful.
That actor.
She's from Bridgerton.
She was in Bridgerton.
She's amazing.
Everybody.
She's in Bridgerton?
Yeah, she's the wife.
She's the second last season.
Oh, right.
She's beautiful.
She's beautiful.
But she was fantastic.
She like, you can't say that.
I literally was thinking of getting you one of those.
It's like a helper.
Anyway.
You are that person.
I am.
That's true.
I do.
You can't say that.
You can't say that.
Okay, let's get into it.
Before we get into news, I want to chat about a piece in Wired titled The Sad Wives of AI.
The author details how the AI boom has created a wave of women, especially in tech-heavy circles, because men working in or obsessing over AI are emotionally and mentally consumed by it.
One therapist mentioned in the piece says her client base is almost entirely women whose husbands are professionally adjacent to AI.
Over 70% of AI-skilled workers are men.
It just made me laugh.
I'm not really a sad wife of AI, but I was interviewing Joanna Stern this week at the 92nd Street Y.
She's written a book called I Am Not a Robot, where she lived with AI for a full year.
And I was thinking, I discussed how much you use it compared to me, which was interesting.
I don't know what you think about sad wives of AI, but it's interesting.
This article really shook me, and I think it calls on a much bigger issue, more with young men.
I think what's going on here is that this isn't about men falling in love with machines.
It's about men choosing control over connection.
And I think it's a dangerous trend, especially among young men who are forming their approach to relationships their entire life.
And that is the following.
Real relationships require friction.
Right, as I said.
And AI removes friction.
and I've talked about this openly, and I've said this, I modulate my consumption of porn because I want that energy and that having sex with someone takes real work.
And you know what it does?
It turns you into a better man.
It makes you think about what turns that person on.
It makes you think about connection.
It makes you think about how you become more attractive.
And when men start finding you know, opting for control in frictionless relationships.
It's not just porn though.
It's just like spending time with it, right?
Like really.
This is a substitute.
Porn is a substitute for intimate sexual connection.
And AI is becoming slowly but surely a replacement for, I sit down, I'm doing a lot of virtually signaling right now.
I sit down with my son when I put him to bed every night and he talks to me about his day.
I won't let him be on screens in his room because I'm worried at some point he's going to just start talking to his AI about his school day and asking him for advice.
And here's the bottom line.
What is usually the right thing is usually the hard thing.
And nothing is harder and nothing is more rewarding than relationships.
And when you come across when you're young, you can start believing that real relationships feel unnecessarily hard and therefore less appealing or more.
bluntly, when the alternative is a partner relationship that never disagrees, relationships in reality start looking like a bad deal.
And we become more disconnected.
No, I did that interview with Sherry Turkle for my series.
And she was like, it used to be a sidelight.
There was always an odd person who used these things like that.
And she goes, now it's nearly everybody.
Like, it's very mainstream.
And I think, you know, people say it's men and women, but it's largely men.
I think it's men.
I've been very seduced by AI around business.
But I've decided, and what I tell young men is, you got to earn your sex.
Don't try, really try to modulate your porn.
You got to earn your relationships, your intimacy, and your sex.
And when you do, that's what makes it really rewarding because memo, it's really hard.
When you need advice, go to friends, go to your parents.
If you're looking to brainstorm and you're looking for additional data, what...
It's bad for men of my age.
It is a fucking disaster for kids under the age of 18.
Yeah.
And they're consumed by it.
You know, one point I made to Joanna in this interview where she used it a lot is she's like, why do you?
She goes, she was noting it was many more men than women.
And I said, and many more men making it or creating it and everything else.
And she goes, what do you think?
And I said, I think men can't have children.
And this is a version of children.
Like they're creating a being.
Like they're creating and.
shaping a being in a way that they want to with control, which is exactly what you said.
And I think it's a real, it's a version of that, of total control over a being, which I think is very attractive.
We're becoming less mammalia.
We see declining male participation in relationships.
When men don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes down.
When women don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes up.
And it results in increased isolation.
We are, especially men, are substituting relationships with digital alternatives, gaming, porn, and now AI.
And this is what happens.
When you become increasingly digital, you become subject to the whims of shareholder value, which want to take you to the extremes and also elevate incendiary content, nationalist content, misogynistic content, content that demonizes immigrants or demonizes trans kids.
And you end up with a...
cohort of people who take their natural aggression, which can be very positive if channeled the right way in terms of risk taking, in terms of saving other people's lives.
But when it's channeled through digital means and you start blaming other people.
It can lead to nationalisms, strongmen.
I think this is a really big issue.
Yeah, it is.
I had a really interesting discussion with Alex.
I was asking him how he used it.
Actually, I found the way he used it.
I said, I want to know exactly how you use it.
And I think they're very honest with you, my kids.
He uses it, for example, he puts problems in it.
And then he said it's like an assistant tutor, right, an assistant tutor that they go through.
He has very complex math problems, obviously, with his school because he's in such advanced calculus and everything else.
And he said, I walk through like it's a teaching assistant.
And then I put it away and do the problems myself.
And then I have it look and see where I went wrong.
And then I do it again myself.
So it's a really, he uses it in a way.
that I think is smart anyway.
But he doesn't use it for, you know, he has a nice girlfriend and, you know, they get into beefs and this and that.
But it's, but they're, they also have a relationship.
And I think it's, I think that's not a dumb way to use it.
Anyway, it's a really sad story.
You should read it.
It's in Wired.
So let's get to the news at the time.
Speaking of men, men, men, men, men, the photos out of China are really.
Quite disturbing.
It's only men at the table here.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi have met for a little over two hours right now and attended a state banquet to start off their two-day summit in China.
In Xi's opening toast at the banquet, Xi said, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand.
He's neckering at Trump on his back, though.
The White House said both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.
Xi warned that...
Trump that mishandling Taiwan would cause clashes and put the entire relationship in great jeopardy.
Trump is joined in China by 17 American business leaders, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang.
A surprising lack of women on this trip everywhere, and also China experts.
We asked Alice Hahn, director of Green Mantle and co-host of Prof.
G's own China Decode podcast, for her thoughts on the summit.
Let's listen to what she has to say.
So US President Donald Trump is heading to China.
This is the first visit by a sitting US president since...
2017 when Trump was last president.
I'm carrying a three-point scorecard going into summit in terms of rating it.
Number one, will there be any indication as to tariffs and trade?
Number two, will both sides agree to freeze or maybe even loosen certain export restrictions on chips and rare earths?
And number three is the thornier geopolitical question.
I think both sides will have two very different readouts on Iran, but certainly both leaders will be talking about it.
believe that Trump will apply some personal pressure on Xi Jinping to help resolve it, although I suspect the Chinese will be reluctant and push back on any kind of collaboration over Iran.
I think this will be largely summitry without substance, and it does pave the way for more summits to come with potential for two or three other meetings and a Xi visit to the US later this year.
One concrete prediction I have for this summit is that China will increase Boeing purchase of aviation equipment.
I think the fact that the CEO of Boeing is going there with Trump is an indication of that direction.
Interesting.
Obviously, she does summitry is a really good word.
It's interesting because a lot of the coverage out of it is that China thinks we're a declining empire.
And, of course, who he brought was interesting.
You typically bring business people on these things.
It's absolutely true.
And he brought all mostly tech people or tech adjacent people.
I think most people feel that, as she says, nothing's going to come out of this.
Trump, I think.
I think he's the more important person to pay attention to.
Your thoughts?
It's not who he brought, it's the ratio.
He brought 17 CEOs with him and three diplomats.
So it feels as if America is just becoming an operating system for the wealth of the top 1%.
Yeah.
Billionaires on a plane, like snakes on a plane.
Yeah.
And what's the minimum amount of cheap calories and entertainment, you know, bread and circuses we can throw at the bottom 99 such that they don't, you know, revolt.
And there's no policy, there's no prep.
He sounds like an eighth grader with terrible, you know, who's had to take, he's failed English so many times, he's going to have to take it as English as a second language.
It's like, Jesus Christ, can someone buy the guy elements of style before he gives a talk?
I know, the speech wasn't crazy.
Chinese restaurants?
I didn't even understand what he was talking about.
They're laughing at us.
You can feel it.
And they, I thought the most important statement, because you can be clear, while he's sort of improvisation with a mic, you can bet she calibrates every word.
Yes.
And the words that she said that I think should send a chill down everyone's spine is he said that he hopes that America's current approach, some of the effect of America's current approach towards Taiwan could result in a clash.
And Trump hasn't really said a lot about Taiwan.
He's not flying to Taiwan with Speaker Pelosi and publicly cementing our relationship with the ally there.
It was a warning.
It was a warning.
Yeah, or not even a warning.
I saw it more as like a preview that we are going to start, we are seriously considering some sort of soft or not so soft repatriation, acquisition, invasion, whatever, use whatever word you want.
of Taiwan.
And I think had Trump had more elegant diplomats with them, they would have immediately responded and put out a statement along the lines of, you know, we are all, both nations are committed to peace and just as I'm sure we've witnessed the incredible fighting force of Ukraine when armed with technology, they can repel a much larger aggressor, which in my opinion would be an elegant way of saying.
stand the fuck down when it comes to Taiwan.
Right.
He doesn't sound like he was.
And he would never, he doesn't think, he doesn't have the diplomats or the IQ to respond to what was really the only substantive statement made at this summit.
And sending Huang over, Jensen used to have 90% share of chips over there.
It's gone to zero.
Because China's figured out that if I provide my local entrepreneurs with the incentives to catch up, they just might.
Our trade has gone from 23% of their exports used to come with us.
Now it's 17%.
They have bigger trade with ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
And also they do more trade now with Europe.
Yes, they do.
So we showed up.
It looked less like diplomacy than sort of two casino owners trying to refinance each other's debt.
But she is the house right now.
Trump came in as the guy asking for an extension on his marker or his credit.
We are mutually, each of us has a foot, should we decide, on the other's carotid artery.
They own 70% of rare earth minerals and 90% of the processing.
We own or control with Taiwan 80 to 90% of sophisticated chips.
Which is why Jensen was there to be able to sell.
This is something Trump barred, by the way.
And then now he wants to sell the chips into China.
Yeah.
Can I make a comment about all the business people, as you said?
I mean, it really was.
There's so many important issues.
Like there should have been a discussion about.
global AI standards in warnings, just the way we do.
Cooperating.
With this group cooperating on scary shit.
That's right.
And this group is all in on whatever.
There's nobody who is a, everything they do, nobody is a critic of it.
This is like, you know, flying billionaires on a plane to China to get shit seems problematic from a visual point of view.
You're exactly right.
This should have been an opportunity to develop the modern day equivalent of Interpol.
We have.
cooperation even amongst Russia and China around nuclear weapons.
We cooperate and we go kill people if we think they're trying to mix up a biological, you know, a bioweapon.
We cooperate and we go find those people and we arrest them or kill them.
We should be doing the same thing with cooperating around AI.
Publicly, publicly.
I suspect there's behind the scenes stuff happening, but of course there is.
But at the same time with this gang, just like with the advisory council on AI, it has nothing to do with safety and AI or anything else.
It has to do with let's do some business here.
And as long as it's good for us and my rich friends, I'll do it.
But it was so, it was, he looked tired.
He looked old.
He looked addled.
He's both those, he's all those.
And then he was tweeting his.
that were truth in his little heart out, like with his, apparently, the piece in the Wall Street Journal, I don't know if you saw that piece.
Was it 200 truths in a four-hour period?
Whatever.
It's this lady who helps him, this young lady who has a startling resemblance to Ivanka, who stays up with him late at night and does this.
And even the White House people don't know what to make of the situation.
And the journal was implying some stuff like they were trying not to.
But she facilitates him posting this crazy stream of lunacy.
I'm old.
I just hope I have someone facilitating me.
Anyway.
I've already got it planned out.
His name is Manny.
Okay.
I know, I know.
Manny is going to the soft hands.
Manny with the soft hands.
I'm looking for Manny.
Anyone named Manny with soft hands, call me and I'm going to get you ready for Scott, which should be in about 10 years.
You should know that.
10 years, don't you think?
I'm difficult, but I'm very generous in terms of compensation.
I know you, but when do you think you'll be going down?
Like going down.
Oh, I think the correct term is went.
Went.
No, but really going down, like hard.
When you say going down, you mean needing help?
I mean like in the need for a Manny.
In the need for a Manny.
I'd say 82 for you.
Jesus, that early?
I think so.
My dad, I'm assuming I'll follow the pattern of my dad.
At about 93, my dad needed help.
93.
Okay, yeah.
All right.
Okay, Manny, get ready.
Somebody might not be born.
Yeah.
But just back for a moment, back to the summit.
Okay.
Sorry.
Trump doesn't recognize the evolution of China since the last time he was there.
China's no longer trying to copy Silicon Valley.
They're trying to replace it.
That's correct.
Alibaba alone is going to spend $53 billion on AI.
We're so focused on the hyperscaling and the capex here.
You know, U.S.
hyperscalers are spending $650 billion, but $53 billion from one company.
China usually typically has the ability to make their dollars go much further.
And what they offer is...
The fastest zero to a billion dollar companies in history have one general business strategy.
And we like to think it's the innovator.
No, it's not.
The second mouse gets the cheese or specifically the shareholder value.
And the most dramatic or the most accretive business strategy in history is to provide the following.
80% of the leader for 50% of the price.
My first strategy engagement of profit was basically this idea, and that was a lot of people couldn't afford the gap in the 90s.
A lot of people think of it as being kind of a middle-class retailer.
The gap is expensive for a lot of people.
Most people can't afford $22 pocket tees.
And the idea was let's tap into this huge population of single mothers who are very conscious about their children's confidence at school and offer 50%, or I'm sorry, 80% of the gap for 50% of the price, Old Navy, fastest year.
$2 billion retailer in history.
Southwest is essentially, when it started, 80% of the majors for 50% of the price.
China's entire strategy is we'll give you 80% of a semen cell tower for 40% of the price.
Yep.
They're very innovative too.
Let's say, you know, this idea of what they're, they are a very dynamic autocracy.
Let's just say they are a very like dynamic and nimble autocracy.
Just incredible.
Yeah.
And they have.
tons of problems.
There was just an interesting, I mean, similar stories, decline in marriages, decline in kids.
They certainly plan that for part of it.
I mean, they have their own issues.
Youth unemployment, demographics, real estate, over-leveraging real estate.
Unhappiness, morale, stuff like that.
Yeah, which is more problematic in an autocracy, but it's problematic here too.
All right, Scott, we'll see what happens.
Nothing, it's a nothing burger.
We'll see if they do more, but I agree with you.
Taiwan is where we need to focus.
That will be a...
disaster.
That will be our greatest crisis of this year, I think.
Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break.
When we come back, Sam Altman takes the stand.
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Scott, we're back.
It was Sam Altman's turn in the hot seat this week at the Elon Musk OpenAI trial.
Sam denied Elon's claim that he tried to steal a charity and said Elon supported OpenAI becoming a for-profit company as long as Elon had total control.
That sounds pretty...
accurate as far as in my experience.
Let's go through some of the other highlights from Sam's testimony.
Sam described, quote, a hair-raising moment when Elon suggested control of OpenAI should pass to his children after his death.
That is hair-raising.
Sam said Elon's departure from OpenAI in 2018 was a morale boost for employees who did not like his hardcore management style.
I was there during that time.
That's exactly what they described, I have to say.
I heard from a lot of people.
He was like a big, giant fucking baby.
And he does that with all his comes.
He comes in, yells, kicks a can, and then leaves, and they can't wait till he leaves.
When pressed on his open AI equity stake, Sam acknowledged that he holds a passive stake in the company through Y Combinator.
I also want to mention that Kara Swisher came up in the trial this week.
I was surprised not more while Microsoft CEO...
I was surprised not more.
No, because I was texting a lot with all of them.
That is the most Kara Swisher thing Kara Swisher has ever seen.
I was surprised I wasn't mentioned more.
I texted with them all during this time.
The Microsoft Satya, Nadella was testifying.
Elon's lawyers were questioning Nadella about the nature of Microsoft's relationship with OpenA and pointed to comments he made during an interview with me after Sam's.
He was all in for Sam during that period.
Closing arguments are getting underway right now.
So again, I don't think there's any more last-minute surprises.
Elam was not supposed to leave the country, by the way, according to the judge, but he did anyway.
He was supposed to be on call, essentially, but he doesn't care.
Any last-minute surprises?
Anything?
It seems like it's going the way we talked about.
thoughts with this jury?
I don't have any additional color here.
Again, I think this is grievance cosplaying a legal argument.
So this is a traditional jury trial and the jury decides this.
It's a jury decision and then the judge will decide remedies.
So, you know, if he loses, if Musk wins, they might say, well, we're leaving it as it is and going with the California thing and they can pay him money or whatever.
We're not going to get rid of the CEO.
That's one of the things he's asked for.
I think he can't possibly, I think this jury can't possibly side with him.
I mean, ultimately, I don't think they proved anything.
And it's a sort of he said, he said kind of thing.
And Elon's the most loathsome of the pair, right?
By far, by country miles.
So I think Elon's made a spectacle of himself.
If he wins, it would be.
something else.
Like, I'll tell you that.
But I can't imagine the jury thinks this guy got a short end of the stick or that he's stupid and didn't know what was happening to him.
I think that's really, he's sort of played this, I'm a genius.
Well, if you're a genius, how did this happen kind of thing?
You're not a dupe.
And so I think they probably think he's lying.
And there's enough evidence that he is.
Or just, as you said, grievance theater.
In any case, I have a feeling it's going to be quick, but we'll see.
It would be a real shocker if he won.
And the latest inflation numbers are out, and the news is not good.
Consumer prices rose 3.8 percent last month, the biggest increase in three years.
Energy costs obviously accounted for more than 40 percent of the monthly increase, with gas prices up 28 percent.
Grocery prices, rent, and airfares also climbed sharply.
President Trump, however, does not appear to be overly concerned.
Let's listen to how he answered a reporter's question as he left the White House for his China trip.
you to make a deal?
Not even a little bit.
The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon.
I don't think about American financial situation.
I don't think about anybody.
I think about one thing.
We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.
That's all.
That's the only thing that motivates.
Oh, wow.
That was some quote.
That was like an ad.
He cut an ad for them.
It was...
That was astonishing, I have to say.
I mean, it's what I think he thinks.
And this nuclear weapon thing, we're less safe now than we were doing in the Obama days when we had most of the enriched uranium in a deal and the state of Hormuz was open.
So any thoughts about what he's doing here?
Why?
Or he's just an old addled man who just says whatever's on his mind.
I don't know.
Yeah.
So look, with this administration, so the quote unquote objectives of regime change.
oh wait, no nuclear weapons, oh wait, unconditional surrender.
I mean, there really isn't, it's so back and forth and erratic that it's difficult for him to outline or be taken seriously.
Having said that, I do believe that loosely speaking, the way what he said there is how presidents should approach.
Wars.
Wars are more than gas prices.
Wars involve killing people and putting our own men and women at risk.
And I think, and he's not the guy to do this, but I do think the president should be willing to have an adult conversation with the American people and to say that the reason we have decided to put our own men and women in harm's way and commit this type of treasure and talent and potentially kill many of their citizens is because we think it's worth it.
And this is why we think it's worth it.
And quite frankly, we don't go to war unless we, as your leaders, have decided that the American public are going to have to sacrifice.
George Bush told us we could go to war and cut taxes.
And Americans believed him.
So I think an adult conversation with the American public around, we have consulted with Congress, we have consulted with our allies, and we believe Whatever the objectives are, are worth some sacrifice.
I think that is the right thing for a president to say.
But this requires an adult conversation, more leadership, more gravitas, and clear objectives.
And none of those things are evident with this president.
But, again, I think the president should be the person to say to the American public, I'm not going to take you to war unless I think it's worth it and also unless I am willing to ask you to sacrifice.
That's not how he asked it.
He's like, I don't give a fuck.
Agreed.
He doesn't have any objectives.
It's worse than before.
He's made it worse.
And it's not a war.
Like, it's not, it's, he's kind of right.
It's not, it's something else where it's just a disaster.
It's just a big fucking mess.
The same as his casinos and, you know, everything he touches turns to this in some way.
Just even.
Even the New York Times story about the reflecting pool, what a mess.
He gave it to some group of people who can't fix it.
There's already leaks already.
It's being painted a color that's not going to let it reflect.
It's going to be a non-reflecting pool.
Everything he does is shoddy and...
haphazard and unplanned and with a huge whiff, stink of corruption attached to it.
And, you know, and then telling them, I don't really care about you is really, I think, disastrous.
It's why his numbers are going down is nobody believes him about anything that he says, except that he doesn't care about you.
And I think that's a, I agree a president should say things honestly, but I don't think this is honest.
I think this is just, he could give a fuck is what he's saying.
to you and doesn't have any plan except for disaster well there's the perception and there's the reality and i think that i think the perception after kind of eight or ten very bad weeks for the president i think he's actually had a good couple weeks i do think he looks presidential with she although nothing got accomplished other than some saber rattling from she um the virginia i think virginia's a big deal The Supreme Court rejecting the attempt to redistrict.
I think he's had actually a decent couple of weeks.
I actually don't.
I think the Supreme Court is going to give it to Virginia because it gave it to everybody else.
And I think it's going to turn shit.
I'm sorry.
Can you give it to Virginia?
It's going to the Supreme Court.
That decision is going.
The Supreme Court has to decide.
Oh, you think the redistricting will be allowed?
Yes.
I think it'll be allowed.
And because they've allowed it everywhere else.
It's very hard not to allow it if they've allowed it everywhere else.
And they agree with Texas.
As we said last week, he can do whatever he wants, cheating.
But polling doesn't lie.
And polling is showing that he can't outrun the polling no matter how many times he cheats.
I think he has had a bad couple of weeks, actually.
And he looks older and more addled than ever.
I just, I think this was a typical, he's just saying whatever's on his brain.
He wasn't doing it to be, you know, tough with the American.
And he didn't do it with care.
I don't care what anybody's, like, I don't think about anyone's financial, American's financial situation.
I don't think about anybody.
That's ridiculous.
And he, you know.
We were safer before and we're less safe now.
When's the last time you think he had a good two weeks, Kara?
When he won.
Okay.
When he won.
I don't think it's, I think this has been, I thought part of his first term, some of the stuff was okay.
So it's been 78 weeks of constant.
No, I do think, no, I think when he won.
I think when he won and he had a real opportunity.
It was a year and a half ago.
Yeah, I think it's been like a series of like the one forgets the immigration disasters, the shooting of U.S.
citizens, all the stupid people he's hired, the drunken Kash Patel, the lunacy of RFK.
I don't think there's any.
Well, we shouldn't have dyes in our food.
Yes.
Sounds good.
Like, I don't know what to say.
I think it's a very small little ones.
And I think the stock market's done well, but I don't think it's, I think it's detached from everyone else's experience.
And, you know, billionaires have had a good time.
That's for sure.
Tech billionaires.
But this rise of inflation to me is the only thing that matters at this moment for most people.
What people miss, we're very focused on unemployment.
We think that unemployment causes unrest.
It's actually not unemployment that causes the greatest levels of unrest.
It's what really upsets people and moves them to political action and sometimes even some form of revolution, which I think we're already in, is not people who aren't working.
It's people who are working and yet still hungry.
And that's what's going on here.
The unemployment rate is four and a half percent.
That's not what ails America.
What ails America is that people have two jobs and can't afford health care.
So, when now we have inflation or prices outpacing wages, that just translates to the following, the quality of your life goes down.
And the problem is America, and I lay a lot of this, Trump doesn't have the IQ or the integrity or the honesty to do this or the competence around him.
But I would also argue that America isn't ready for an adult conversation because if you're going to be serious about inflation, it's very long-term difficult things.
There's a relationship between, essentially the economy breaks into three buckets.
There's labor, that is the earners, there's shareholders, the owners, and then there's consumers.
And because of a lack of antitrust, because of tax policy, we have decided to massively transfer power and economic well-being.
from consumers and earners or laborers to shareholders.
And everything we do, every tax policy, keeping minimum wage low, writing off all CapEx, subsidizing certain industries, everything is about how do we consistently take money from earners who minimum wage was 725 15 years ago, it's still 725, despite the fact that the NASDAQ has quadrupled, and push more and more money into shareholders.
And also the most boring thing that no one wants to talk about is that when you go from 12 chicken companies to three, when you let pharmaceuticals consolidate, when you let health systems consolidate, when you let healthcare verticalize, when you let one company control 90% of search, 50% of e-commerce, 78% of social media, they will extract greater and greater rents from consumers and earners and transfer it to owners.
It requires antitrust.
It requires a really interesting or more severe, quite frankly, entitlement policy where we reduce our entitlements.
You're going to have to reduce the military budget.
You're going to have to increase taxes, 40% AMT across corporations and millionaires.
And then slowly but surely create more competition, lower rents on consumers and a transfer of capital back from the owners to the earners.
But the American public doesn't have a political election cycle.
That creates a serious conversation around these things.
No, I get that.
I get that.
I'm talking about people feeling it, like at all levels.
And you do when you go out.
I mean, I know it sounds dumb, but I do do.
Amanda and I split the grocery shopping, but I went to get a quart of milk, and I was like, what?
It was like $6 or $7.
And I was like, are you fucking kidding me?
And it's not just looking at the gas pumps.
Or there was something, I was in an airport, and there was a sandwich, and they were like, $14.
I'm like, what?
Like, it was, you know, I didn't get it.
I was like, well, that's a lot of money for a sandwich, like, kind of thing.
And so I don't begrudge them having to raise prices.
It's that it was, it's just, I think people who are price-resist, like, price-insensitive are noticing it.
You can't help, unless you're just holed up in your house, you can't help but notice things have gotten a lot more expensive.
But there's shock and there's a reduction in the quality of life, and then there are threats to your own personal safety.
Correct.
When you see Affordable Care Act subsidies go away, you have someone who's literally dependent upon diabetes medication for their life see their insurance bill go from $178 a month to $1,700.
And it's as if the government has said to them, we don't care that you're working hard.
We've decided that you're going to die.
And those are the, I think those are the kind of what I would call, you're going to have, I think we have bad economic policy that results in inflation and a decline of prosperity.
What is unacceptable is that someone is worried when someone starts rationing their prescription medication.
That just, that just can't, that should not happen in America.
Or it cuts off, you know, there's a really upsetting story in the New York Times, a woman writing about her kid who died of cancer, but like they've cut cancer, pediatric cancer things.
And so these, you can't get in these studies because they don't, they suddenly disappear, these advanced studies and everything.
Because, you know, he doesn't say we're not going to help.
pediatric cancer anymore.
What he says is we're cutting all over the place.
So in essence, that's what we're doing.
Anyway, the rise of inflation comes as Kevin Warsh takes the reins.
As Fed chair, Warsh was narrowly confirmed by the Senate this week in a 54 to 45 vote.
It's usually unanimous, which is where we are.
He's certainly qualified.
The question is most people don't think the rates are going to be cut.
And so juggling this inflation with Trump's demands to lower interest rates, most people think he will not be lowering interest rates.
this moment, given the inflation numbers are so high and there's no signs that they're going down.
Just very quick thoughts on that.
We like to talk about, we like to simplify things in the media that this guy's going to come in and cut rates, but people don't want to actually pay attention to the mechanics of the Federal Reserve.
And that is the Federal Open Market Committee is the one that decides whether to cut rates or not.
So while the Fed chairman has the bully pulpit and sets the agenda, He's one of 11 or 12 votes.
And Powell is still there, as you said.
Yeah.
So, no, interest rates.
Kevin Warsh, while a really disappointing testimony at a Senate confirmation hearing, he's not stupid.
And he doesn't want to go down in history as the guy that ignited an upward spiral of inflation.
Yeah.
So, there's not going to be a rate cut.
And as a matter of fact, Calci says there's a 72% likelihood there's no rate cuts for the rest of the year.
Because you still, these Fed governors don't want to be known as the people that created bread lines.
Yep.
And when you come off a print of 3.8%, there's no fucking way.
If Warsh started making noises that we should cut rates, those guys would go on background to journalists saying, this guy's fucking insane and threatening a Weimar Republic-like inflationary economy here.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I think it's the deficit and everything else.
Maybe they shouldn't consult Zoran Maldami, who balanced the New York budget.
What did he cut?
I'm curious.
I haven't been following it.
Some consultant stuff, a bunch of things.
He's doing a rather good job with Zoran.
He opened the streets for the soccer, the FIFA matches in front of schools.
He closed off streets so kids could play soccer, like learn to play soccer and brought in all these soccer players and stuff.
He's very good at services, this guy.
I'm just saying, I think Trump's got to focus in on providing services to citizens.
That's what you're talking about.
The idea of that people get something out of government and it's not to be kicked in the fucking teeth.
And I think that's really the difference between lots of cities and a lot of both Republican and Democratic governors and mayors who are providing people better services in a smarter way.
Anyway, that's to me is the.
Well, for everybody.
Anyway, we're going to go on a quick break.
When we come back, we'll talk about the biggest donors for the midterms.
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I'm Mitch Purse, two-time Indoorcell Champion, Championship MVP and forward for the US Women's National Team.
Before I went pro, I graduated from Harvard with a degree in psychology, which comes in handy more than you think.
Any athlete pursuing greatness knows there's a certain mentality you have to have.
What people don't know is what that costs.
In my podcast, Confessions of an Elite Athlete.
I sit down with the best athletes in the world and explore the psychology, mindset, and unseen battles on the path to greatness.
So take a seat and learn from the confessions of an elite athlete on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
Scott, we're back.
The biggest donor for the 2026 midterms may or may not surprise you.
It's Andreessen Horowitz.
The VC firm and its co-founders, Mark Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, have already spent more than $115 million this election cycle, outspending both George Soros and Elon Musk.
Most of the money is spent on the right.
It's Musk.
Jeff Yass and these two.
Soros is the opposite, but much smaller in comparison.
A major chunk of that money is going towards pro-crypto and pro-AI super PACs.
What a surprise.
It's where their investments are.
Trump and the GOP are also benefiting.
Andreessen Horowitz and his founders have together donated roughly $12 million to Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc.
And a trust link to Mark Andreessen gave nearly $900,000 to the Republican National Committee.
And Mark...
You know, not a surprise.
I mean, this guy has moved firmly.
It's mostly Mark, but Ben is right along with him as always because he's this little follow puppy.
Just typical.
Just typical.
I mean, this is not a surprise.
And then he tells nonsensical stories about how he went right, none of which are true.
Your thoughts?
It's smart.
It's wrong, but it's smart.
It's the greatest ROI any firm can get right now.
I think he's figured it out.
This is pay for play.
And by the way, Horowitz used to give a lot of money to when he thought Kamala was going to give money to Kamala.
He did.
Mark used to be a big...
gore person, as I recall, a long time ago.
He wasn't ever.
People are like, oh, he used to be democratic.
I was like, if you spent any time with him, he certainly wasn't.
He certainly was.
Mark is one thing which is self-interested in the most extreme way you're ever going to meet someone.
He's very interesting.
That's called a corporation.
I agree.
But I'm saying it's really quite, it's really quite, he doesn't even pretend.
He's really the most selfish person ever.
Scott, I get it.
I mean, it's about incentives.
It's just, If the greatest ROI, if you're the CEO of a company or the head of a venture capital firm and the greatest ROI on any spending is not hiring more people, it's not investing in planned property equipment, it's to give money to a president who will pass legislation or block legislation that takes the value of your portfolio companies up $10, $20, $30 billion.
That $115 million investment is the best money you can invest.
Absolutely.
I agree.
Again, it's the boring shit.
Term limits on the Supreme Court, no gerrymandering, get rid of Citizens United.
Until we do those things, you're going to have strong men or women or fascism from the far left or the far right.
You're right.
You're always going to have it.
And we're outraged at Andreessen Horowitz.
There'll be Democrats that'll do it.
I bet Jensen Huang is about to write a $300 million check to somebody.
Who knows?
You know, it's interesting because, look, they have shifted, right?
But my point is, Mark was never, never liked anybody.
Like, that's all I'm saying.
I doubt he does now.
He never does.
He likes himself and his things, and that's it.
It's very, I agree with you.
It's the right corporate thing to do.
I've never met someone who is so anti.
people in my life, like just has such disdain for humanity in a way that's really remarkable, actually.
It just doesn't like anybody, like essentially.
And he would do it to the left or right, depending on what suited him.
Someone was asking me, well, there are left-wing people are going to give me.
I'm like, I don't want, who knows what they're going to be next week.
And I don't want any like individual rich person left or right to be able to.
take advantage of this way.
It seems unfair.
Other people don't get an audience with the president and they have an unnecessary advantage based on money.
And that's kind of gross in some ways.
It should be gross.
Elon Musk, after the SpaceX IPO, might be worth between 700 billion and a trillion dollars.
If he takes 1% of his wealth or $10 billion with his command of technology, he can decide who the next president is.
He can.
That's what I mean.
Is that what you want?
Taxes are our Kevlar and our vaccine from power.
We need to stop thinking about taxes as something that is inherently evil and slows down the economy.
That's bad taxation.
Taxation protects us from, I don't want to call them billionaires because I don't want to demonize them.
Taxes protect us from an unhealthy aggregation of power.
Due to money.
100%.
We shouldn't have any individual.
I don't care if it's Soros.
I don't care if it's unions.
I don't care if it's Lorraine Powell Jobs, although I think she's a wonderful woman.
This isn't a character assessment.
You can't have an individual with this much power.
And taxes are the only way, our only protection, our Kevlar, against the aggregation of this type of power.
And Citizens United.
I got to get rid of it.
Speaking of which, all my friends have decided you've become a lesbian because of pied-à-terre.
Really?
They were like, what?
They were like, huh?
They weren't expecting that?
No, I was not either.
Oh, by the way, a lot of my friends are sending me messages like, what the fuck?
Shut up, buddy.
Peter Tarr.
Scott is a lesbian from San Francisco now, speaking of virtue signaling.
I go issue by issue.
I get it.
I get it.
Speaking of them getting more money, besides Elon becoming a trillionaire, Anthropics and talks to raise new funding that would value it up to $950 billion.
Unbelievable.
If completed, the company's valuation would be 2.5.
times what it was just three months ago and higher than OpenAI's valuation of $852 billion.
Of course, there's the overhang of that trial with OpenAI right now.
It's a huge thing.
Overinflated?
I don't know.
I don't know.
Look, we've never seen a company scale like that.
And we've also never seen Pepsi overtake Coke or Avis overtake Hertz as quickly.
We've never seen this type of...
transition or pivot or reversal in fortunes.
And also, I still think OpenAI's IPO is probably going to be a hit.
So get this, in March of 2025, Anthropics valuation was 61 billion.
So it's up 15 fold.
It's up 15 fold in the last year.
A lot of parties in Silicon Valley.
Well, okay.
It was 9 billion in annual recurring revenue in December.
Last month, it was 30 billion.
They think this month it's on track to reach 50 billion.
For the first time, more businesses are using Anthropic than OpenAI, 35% versus 32%.
Anthropic's business adoption quadrupled over the past year while OpenAI is basically flat.
And so a board decision on this financing is expected later this month, and they think the IPO might happen as early as October.
Yeah, it's the fall.
And Kelsey is saying it's a 70% chance it goes public this year.
a 60% chance that they have the best AI model at the end of the year.
I don't know what that means.
Like I don't, this company is, it's just absolutely firing on all cylinders.
Having said that, my thesis is that go long GLP-1 and short AI because I don't think, I think it's impossible to maintain a lead in AI with AI.
And that is if you look at the technical specifications, it's moving more towards parity than differentiation.
And I think it's going to be difficult for any one company to maintain a technical lead here.
And that that will drive down margins.
And then when these open-weight AIs, when she starts engaging in AI dumping, which is what I would do if I were him, I think it's going to drive down their margins.
And the good news is, I think similar to vaccines or PCs or jet transportation, the winners will be us, not these companies.
There'll be one or two companies that will dominate.
Probably Antropic is one of them at this point.
Interestingly, probably Google is the other.
Yeah, it'll be really interesting.
But when you look, we have become used to any innovation resulting in a small number of companies capturing trillions of dollars in shareholder value.
Again, my thesis is that AI might be more like jet transportation vaccines and PCs and that no one company is able to sequester shareholder value.
Yeah, I get your point.
So it would be funny if Apple spent nothing and ends up benefiting them all.
Oh, that's 100%.
That's sweet.
Just last thing, Google, speaking of Google, is in talks with SpaceX for a rocket launch deal that put orbital data centers in space.
The deal is based on currently unproven technology that Elon said is the next frontier for his rocket company.
I kind of like this idea.
It's totally unproven.
And Google has a history of investing in wacky schemes.
At one point, they were investing.
This sounds like a Sergey Brin.
thing happening here.
They used to beef over some girl, but now they're getting along, I suppose.
Anyway, this is something.
Google has done this.
They had wind up in wind kites at one point.
They were going to do a chairlift in San Francisco.
They had a ship, an energy ship parked off the city in San Francisco.
This is nothing.
This feels, smells like...
Sergey Brin to me.
And so he would try anything and this would seem cool to him.
So sure, why not?
Why not invest in it?
What's the difference?
If it works, it works.
If it doesn't, it doesn't.
I think these guys, they want to put chips down and options on anything they don't have insight into so they can get investor updates, have a chance to work with them.
It's smart.
Everything is so interconnected.
Those graphs that look like.
you know, a god's eye.
Remember those in the 70s where everyone is invested in everybody else and everybody's suing everybody else.
Yeah, just like Anthropic is doing a deal with Musk.
Everyone was like, how dare you, Dario?
I'm like, are you kidding?
Of course he did.
Of course they do.
They don't.
They like beef and then they hug.
It's like the mob.
Anyway, one more quick break.
We'll be back for predictions.
Buzzwords like progressive and affordability are thrown around all the time in politics.
But what do they actually mean?
For me, being a progressive means at least two things.
One, being willing to unite lots and lots of people, all of the folks that are getting screwed over against the powers that be that are making your life worse.
And then second, being progressive is essentially a hopeful enterprise that you think, I think that the world can be much better, that we don't have to settle for crumbs or settle for the status quo.
And is there a difference between what it means to the elected officials and what it means to the people?
So money is essentially the root of everything.
I don't care if you're gay.
I don't care if you have all that.
That's like secondary, third.
That's not a priority.
That's this week on America Actually.
Let's dig in.
Complex and unprecedented, the Spanish authorities are calling it.
Antes del desembarco, asintomáticas.
Passengers who'd been stuck aboard the Hanta or maybe Hanta virus stricken Dutch cruise ship disembarked in the Canary Islands this weekend, prompting the highest stakes game of where are they now since maybe COVID.
Some of the evacuees, American and French, have since tested positive for the virus.
And yet public health officials seem remarkably calm.
We do have one individual who was taken to the biocontainment unit early, early this morning, and we assessed that individual.
They are doing well.
Possibly because this is not the one to freak out over.
Today Explained drops every weekday afternoon.
Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.
I will note that people should, something we have talked about and have been in our predictions, a New York Times investigation, which you should all read, found that over 80 poly market users have placed bets with suspicious characteristics and won money across nearly 30 topics.
The insider trading stuff of this stuff is just getting started on all these predictions markets.
So we thought this might happen, but that's just...
Just please go read that because it's a really interesting piece.
Go ahead, Scott.
Predictions?
So my prediction, chipmaker Sarah Bross went public today at a $40 billion valuation, and that's up from its $23 billion valuation in February and $8 billion in 2025.
And I believe it's playing into this massive historic run-up in chips.
And after an initial pop, I think it'll fall.
Since last year, its revenue has increased.
less than 2x while its valuation is increased sixfold.
And the $40 billion valuation implies a 76 times revenue multiple.
In other words, this shouldn't be a public company.
It's drafting off of what has been an unprecedented increase in value in the sector.
So as an example, NVIDIA trades at 26 times revenues and still controls 85% of the AI chip market and is growing faster.
Cerebris tried to go public in 2024, but withdrew.
They're filing at the last minute over intense scrutiny of its heavy reliance on a single customer, the Emirati AI from G42.
I don't know if you remember these guys.
It's basically like actual giant big chips, physical giant big chips.
It strikes me as quite frankly a shitty company.
And this is simply massively benefiting from an unprecedented updraft in chip stocks.
And anyways, my prediction is that the...
initial pop, this company, which I think is actually a fairly mediocre chip company trading at 78 times revenue, is not going to sustain.
I like the highly specific stock thing.
And then that same customer, which makes up the lion's share of the revenue, Group 42, accounted for 24% of revenue last year.
And state-owned UAE University accounted for 62% of revenue.
Given what's going on in the UAE, given their dependence on one customer, given the 76 times revenue, This feels like one of those bad Chinese firms that could just go down 95%.
Well, that's a good warning for people.
Anyway, there's a lot of froth happening for sure.
And so it's hard to separate the good from the bad.
Anyway, we want to hear from you.
Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.
Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT.
Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week on Prof.
G.
Markets, Scott spoke with Aswath.
Demodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern School of Business, one of Scott's favorites, to break, and he's terrific, I think so too, to break down what's standing out to him in the markets so far this year.
He shared his thoughts on how the conflict with Iran could ripple through the economy.
Let's listen to a clip.
The catastrophic risk here is not that oil and gas prices stay higher than they were before the conflict, is whether they'll go even further up, because there is that chance of that happening.
I think if, in many ways, what the market seemed, seems to be building in is the economy can survive with gas prices being 450 or five, depending on what part of the country you're in, and that it might not be as robust as you thought it was three months ago, but it's okay.
But I think the worry still remains that this crisis, while it's in a slow boil at any point in time, could become a fast boil, at which point you could say, what happens to earnings now?
Yeah, that's interesting.
455.
I've seen 67 now.
It's really across lots of cities.
Anyway, that's the show.
Thanks for listening to Pivot.
Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
We'll be back next week.
Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Todd Wiseman.
Ernie Intertad engineered this episode.
Thanks to Officer Jubrose, Ms.
Savera, and Dan Shalanda, Chakras, Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.
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Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine, Vox Media.
We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
Kara, have a great weekend.
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