# Bitcoin Bear Market Rally Rejection at $82K Resistance

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-05-13

## Transcript

We have had a really good rally since the lows of February, but still what I'm telling here is that it's a bear market rally.
What's up, everybody?
It's LGDUCET here, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that isn't ready for the party to be over yet, even if it looks like everybody already went home.
Today is May 13th, 2026.
Bitcoin has dipped back below 80K.
It's actually below 79K as I'm recording this, and many of us are wondering.
if this is just a brief dip in the renewed bull run, or if Bitcoin has fully rejected off that 200-day moving average.
To break it all down for us today, we've got Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, back on the show.
Today's episode is brought to you by CAPE, the privacy-first mobile carrier, Pharos, the layer one built for RealFi, and Nexo, earn interest, borrow, and trade crypto.
Julio, welcome back, man.
I had a feeling when I saw you in the calendar for our show that I was like...
we are going to be in trouble on that day.
Because you've been a guiding voice for us and gave us some bullish indicators last time, but you were also been a proponent of this kind of year long bear.
And when I saw that we were going to be you're going to be back on the show.
I was like, I feel like his his theories will prove true by then.
And great to have you on as always, man.
Let's get right into it.
So you're telling us basically that that 200 day moving average may have been the top locally.
Yeah, I mean, from a technical side, It looks like that 200 moving a day moving average is really a really key resistance, especially in bear markets, which we are still in a bear market in a downward trend.
But yeah, it has also like so far proved to be like that, like a really important resistance for prices.
And we got in this last few days, we got actually really close to it.
almost touching it.
And so, yeah, I wanted to point out that we have had a really good rally since the lows of February.
Since we hit a low of 60,000, we have rallied to 82,000, a little bit higher than that.
So it's around a 37% increase in the price in the last few months.
It's a good rally, but still what I'm telling here is that it's a bear market rally.
And we actually have hit that resistance, which is really a key resistance during bear markets.
We have had much data on that, but if you look at the previous bear market, the first, you know, the red arrow to the left, it was almost, you know, identical in the sense of that level being a resistance, but also...
before touching that we had also in 2022 between march and may a 43 rally so it's kind of like a similar situation that we have had uh this year and so yeah that's uh you know for now it has proven to be a resistance so technically it's a it's a it's a it's a it's a way to telling us that uh we may be you know in for for a correction after a strong rally Wow.
Okay.
And that 200-day MA, that is what exactly?
You've placed that number around what?
82?
You've got here 82,400.
Yes, 82.
Exactly.
And we actually hit really close to that in the last few days.
I think we went a little bit above it, but is that a daily close?
Is that how you measure that?
Because I think we went almost to...
like if you down to the minute, we went almost to 83, but I think, I'm assuming that's a daily close that you're looking at.
Yeah.
So the chart is daily close.
Exactly.
Yeah.
Okay.
Okay.
So we basically touch it, but, uh, and then, and then retrace it from there.
Right.
Yeah.
And we haven't closed.
I think our highest close was 82, like 240 or something like three days ago or over the weekend, basically on Monday, maybe.
Yeah.
Okay.
All right.
That makes sense.
Um, so what, I mean, keep taking me through this.
So if unfortunately, your theory is true, which is looking like it is so far, well, I'll let you take it from there, because you always prepare these amazing presentations for us.
But I guess my question for you is, you said correction, what is that going to look like?
Like, what level are you targeting?
I have a slide also for that.
Oh, okay.
So I'll just wait for that.
I'll just wait for that.
Let's get to the next slide.
I'll save the special answer for the end.
Exactly.
It's at the end.
So, yeah.
so that i what i'm going to show you is that there's have been some um convergence of certain you know technical indicators but also on chain indicators and market market data that is telling us that this rally uh could have ended and then that we have um may have a correction in the in the coming weeks um so this one i like to always monitor this is um the area the green and red areas are are measuring the unrealized profit margins for traders right so for example in when we hit 60 000 on february traders were at you know on the really high unrealized losses like um i think it was around 27 of profit loss of uh lost margin and so that was the you know the the largest unrealized losses since 2022.
So we were at that point really, Bitcoin was really undervalued on a short term basis.
Since then we have had this rally and now we have high unrealized profits.
And so when we get to really high unrealized profits, it could be an indication of some selling pressure coming.
in the next few days.
So that's the red arrow to the right is showing that high unrealized profit.
And to the left, we see that same unrealized profit really high.
It was at March 2022.
So these indicators are converging into telling us that we may have a local top here.
So you had the 200 moving average, right, that we saw.
And now you see the...
high unrealized profits and those two you know they they they coincide in right now and also in the bear market of of 2022 so that's another indication that we may have hit this um the top for this rally and we may be in for for price correction If you're not seeing this, you're trading blind right now.
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Why wouldn't that, why would that, why would the unrealized profit margin being lower than I guess, I guess the last, okay, so I see you're pointing to the last.
similar period from the bear market.
So despite the traders being in a much higher unrealized profit margin through the bull market, or at least through the 2023 and the recovery and whatever years you consider the bull market, but 24 and 25, in those rallies, there being considerably high levels of green of unrealized profit margin all the way up to the top of 126 or whatever it was.
We were in the green for the last couple months or month or two.
But that almost mirrors exactly the last bear market, especially now if we go back down into unrealized losses.
Exactly.
Yes, exactly.
The point is comparing bear market to bear market.
Of course, during bull markets, the unrealized profits are much bigger, are much higher because prices tend to increase much faster.
And so that selling pressure is, you need higher margins to...
you know entice traders to to sell right so yeah during bull markets as you see there in the chart the unrealized profits are much bigger but in terms of in a bear market it tends to be you know the unrealized profits are lower than in bull market so that's when you you you see that uh a local top may be forming so and and i wanted to point out that those um you know it's really similar situations between Right now in the bear market and the 2022 bear market and in terms of technical indicators, but also like on-chain indicators like this one that's showing that profit margins are at high levels.
Got it.
And this, so what I find interesting about this chart as well, and I think you've shown us this chart almost every podcast appearance, but it is really interesting to look at because we don't really ever look at this otherwise, is that especially for, when we go into unrealized loss, that the price did not, especially in the last bear market, that the price did not bottom until, like at the same time as the unrealized profit, I guess, right?
Is that you've got like your bottom here of unrealized profit, which is like, let's say it's July, 2022, right?
Like dipping way, way, way down, but that the price didn't actually bottom until.
like december 22 january 2023 right so that's i guess i guess i guess what this paints for me and maybe correct me if i'm wrong is that it the people will be an unrealized loss and they will sell so clearly a lot of people will sell before the the price actually bottoms yes yes correctly i mean those waves that you you see that you know higher unrealized losses and then it moves down to to almost like break even That's how it behaves.
We show a really high unrealized losses.
And then they start to, you know, they stop selling heavily, right?
And so that's the price and the realized price of the traders converge again.
And so we get to break even.
And so that's the movement that we see in those rallies or the sell-off in bear markets.
And so, yeah, the point here right now is that we had that actually, that high unrealized losses in February, and then they start to climb a little bit.
And then now we have the high unrealized profits.
And that's when you say, okay, maybe, you know, prices are too high and there's going to be selling pressure coming.
Got it.
Got it.
Okay.
Okay, that makes sense.
Let's go to the next one.
So traders may have started to take profits in a significant way.
So this is kind of what you were telling us at the start.
So yeah, that's the other side of the coin.
So you see the high unrealized profits, but those are still unrealized.
They haven't sold, right?
And so now what we monitor is, okay, have they started to sell?
And so what we see that from February to...
almost let's say late April this year actually profits you know realized profits were weren't too high but now we see the spike in May in the first days of May we see that that big spike on realized profits equivalent to 14 000 bitcoin almost 15 000 bitcoin and that that's on a daily basis is uh you know the highest since December So we see that activity of selling to take profits starting to emerge also.
So that's another indication of, okay, we have high unrealized profits, but now they started to actually take profits.
So that's the other thing to monitor here.
And one indication of, okay, now we are starting to see those unrealized profits being.
we didn't realize right so so you're okay so i guess this makes this makes a lot of sense especially related to the last chart is that you go you know you go into unrealized profit but that means those people may sell right that a lot of people yeah exactly they may sell so that's yeah i guess that's the other the other kind of hidden part of this last chart too is that you're you're just you're seeing the actual it's just a measure of the their their profit and loss at that exact moment and that where the chart moves is kind of dictates that kind of shows their behavior from there.
So, okay.
Okay.
That makes a lot of sense.
So, okay.
So now this one is actually realizing that those.
So there's 14 and a half or 14,600 Bitcoin that are in profit, basically, that have been purchased that are in profit.
I like to measure it in Bitcoin because.
It takes away like the different prices.
Got it.
Right.
So you are always measuring in Bitcoin.
That's the equivalent.
So they took profits equivalent to, you know, 14,000 Bitcoin.
Yeah.
So they took profits or they're in profit.
No, they took profits.
They've realized.
Oh, wow.
Okay.
Yeah.
Realize is when you actually take profits.
Okay.
So in this upswing.
Okay.
I see what you're painting here.
So yeah.
So since February 5th or so, which is, you know, that last.
huge liquidation traders have taken 14 and a half thousand bitcoin in profit basically uh so that's one day in one day that spike is just one day so oh that's just one day so cumulative okay there's a lot more this is daily this is daily daily uh data so each day you see how much how much traders or how much shareholders are you know taking profits each day And so normally, I mean, there's always like profit taking or selling, you know, every day, but it's like at low levels, as you can see, like in February, March, even April.
But now in May, when we got to, you know, above 80, we see that, you know, that spike, you know, a lot more activity on taking profits, right?
Because there's much larger unrealized profits.
So you can actually take profits, you know, after the rally, after this rally.
So that's an indication of actually selling after this rally.
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And you're telling me that it's funny, you always focus on US demand, but I guess it's probably the biggest buyer, but that the demand has eased here as we got closer to 80K.
So fewer buyers.
So we have seen, you know, some technical indicators, now some, you know, profit indicators, some profit taking.
Now, if we look at the demand side, this is interesting because, yeah, in...
The US is typically the driver of prices.
So we measure that with the premium on Coinbase, the price premium on Coinbase.
So typically when there's a rally or in a bull market, the prices will be higher at Coinbase than in other exchanges.
And that is an estimation of, okay, there's much higher demand on the margin.
in the us so that's typically a good indicator when prices are increasing right and we saw that uh from basically february march april with the coinbase premium being in positive so that green green line it tells you that the communist premium is positive and so there's you know higher demand in the us and that's when this rally started but as this rally progresses and we hit those 80 80k and above, that premium switch to negative.
So that's telling you that at these prices, when we hit 80k at these higher prices, demand starts to slowing down.
And so there's less demand in the US at the margin at these higher prices.
So that's a really, I think, significant switch between US demand really being growing higher and now.
reverting to being, you know, slowing down.
It's funny that demand flipped negative, but then the price still rallied to like a, I guess, like local high, right?
Like that it's like, even as you were dipping down, we still had that high daily close the other day, despite already being in the red on the Coinbase premium demand.
And I guess that's only one exchange, right?
So that's kind of how you're measuring US demand.
Yeah, but also- That's interesting, yeah.
the important thing and it's a good that you notice that that tells you that there's a divergence between price action and demand that's why how i see it so that's an indication actually that okay we may have like you know higher prices you know at the end of the rally but the man is already slowing down significantly so that's like that divergence is really important to notice actually got it here what i tried to estimate here in this metric this indicator is when we see a rally or or in general when we see the price action you know what's driving it either you know is it a speculative demand or is it really real spot demand or both both are growing or both are contracting so you see the the green areas at the left of the chart that's when both speculative and spot demand are growing so there's there's growth in both And so typically that's when you have the more sustainable rallies or in bull runs, when we are really in a bull run, then both demands will be growing, both type of demands.
But if you see there since October last year or November, both were contracting, right?
The red area.
So that's when everything switched.
We entered the bear market.
So both demands.
either speculative and also spot were contracting now when we bought them at 60k in february both were contracting right but then what we saw you know especially in this late phase of the of this current rally is that speculative demand is growing but spot is not so it's more like a speculative driven rally and that's when you see that blue areas that's telling you that, okay, we have demand, obviously, because price is increasing, but where is it coming from?
It's mostly like speculative, it's not real, like spot demand.
And so that's, you know, and that's more typical in bear markets because spot demand is, you know, contracting, there's not much activity on that side, but speculative demand, you know, traders are the ones that...
you know going when there's a like a rally that we have seen so but for me that is another indication that it's uh you know it's still like a bird market rally because it's mostly driven by speculative activity so that's why i noticed there in this chart uh you typically want to see like both growing right but more importantly like spot demand really growing so so wait sorry explain this to me again so this is so the spot demand is speculative because who's buying it?
Wait, who's buying it?
No, here, for example, that blue area.
Yeah.
Right, the right.
Yeah.
When it's blue, so this is total demand, speculative and spot.
But when that turns blue, it tells you that only the speculative side is growing, not the spot.
uh okay so right now like we can see is that the this rally from you know lows or 60s to 80 was basically just a speculative demand growing not spot uh right and that's contrast with you know in in in october i'm sorry in like september last year you know those uh q3 and uh The green areas is when both were growing spot and speculative.
So what we can conclude is that these rallies was mostly just driven by speculative activity.
Right.
Okay, okay, okay.
It makes it like not sustainable in a way because of what we've seen.
Traders take profit after a strong rally like this one.
So that's mainly like perps.
Right?
Is that mainly what you're talking about?
Yeah.
Okay.
So it's just perps.
So it's speculative demand.
You're talking about perps.
So basically through the rallies we had last year in 2025, it was largely spot accumulation and perps, but there was a lot of spot accumulation, which gives you a sense that it's likely longer term holding, not as speculative versus now it's been largely driven by, there's been a lot of perps.
I guess there's been a lot of longs.
And as a result, that tells you that there hasn't been.
there's been way less spot accumulation and as a result it was a speculative rally versus a real one, I guess you would call it.
Would you call the opposite of a speculative rally a real rally?
Oh, a spot-driven rally.
Spot-driven rally, yeah, that's a nicer term for it.
Yeah, just real.
Okay, and Bitcoin spot demand is contracting but at a slower pace.
Okay, so that is good?
Yeah, this is showing that only the spot uh growth spot demand growth and yeah i mean the the good news is that we are it's contracting at a slower pace but overall it has been you know contracting since basically this is this is uh so far 2026 so all year we've seen contraction of course there's like waves of when it it slows down the contraction or when it accelerates.
Right now, it's just a small contraction.
But still, what we need to see is growth, right?
Sustainable growth in spot demand.
This is kind of funny.
So it's contracting about a slower pace.
So I guess I'm just trying to understand this chart.
So what does that tell us exactly?
Well, that during this recent rally, the contraction slowed down.
So that's also positive, right?
But still, the point is, For a sustainable rally or in a bull market, what you see is spots not contracting.
Spot demand is actually growing for sustainable periods of time.
So that's what you want to see.
So that's the big picture is we still need to see that growth, right?
So that those rallies are not just speculative driven, but also spot driven.
Right.
Okay.
And the last one here, price support stands around the 70k mark.
This is what I wanted to know.
Yeah, this is what we wanted.
This is what we wanted.
Go ahead.
Yeah, I left it for the end, right?
And so here's, okay, we have these metrics, we have these indicators that maybe we saw a local top after this recent rally.
We have this high...
unrealized profits and even some indication that traders are starting to take those profits, demand slowing down a little bit.
So where were we going after this rally?
One of the metrics that I always look for in terms of where prices can go is the traders on chain realized price.
And right now that one is at...
it's around 70k so that that's an important metric because prices tend to you know hover around that they they go down or up above that and then tend to to to go back and so right now we are above that metric you know which is at 70k so that's that's the the first i would say support that that will i would look at for for for the after this price correction so 70k basically So Julio, I'm just looking at our last chat, which was March 12th.
So almost exactly two months ago.
And that trader realized price was in the mid 80s, which I guess checks out right here, right?
Because we've got it right here.
It is about 86.
So did that and now it's dipped in down to 69k.
So is that flip because that's basically because people sold, people sold on the way up, right?
And it kind of shifted it.
Yes, exactly.
And that, that, right.
If prices go down, then people start transferring Bitcoin.
So they are buying or selling at lower prices.
So that's why this realized price tends to decline.
That's why it declined there.
Got it.
Now it has stabilized around 70K.
But that's a key level.
Sometimes it's a resistance for prices like we see in the chart.
in October and January after those rallies, especially in the January rally, that was a key level.
Now we are above that actually.
And now if this correction progresses, that now becomes like the first support for prices.
I would say that that is around 70K.
Got it.
Why wouldn't we go below it though?
Because in the last two...
major dips like in the november dip and then in the february dip we did go like we've been well below that and even you're you're showing that it's been a top resistance yeah um for for those the the rallies that that came in october and in january so why so you think that we would now stay above it i mean that's that's a level that i will you know take a look at um or monitor if for a first um resistance uh support for prices so so sometimes it's a it's a resistance for prices but you know if you come in from above it then uh it's not a support i mean we could go lower yes it's not it's not a you know like a 100 that will just uh hit that but that's what that's for me like a first key you know support level that would i would look at uh if the if the correction progresses so yeah 70k is around where where i would put that that support and do you think we would stay above that permanently if we stayed above it that will imply that we are you know if if we hit it but we don't cross it below that's typically an indication or how it's you know those bull market starts or how the bottoms you know the the bear market bottom starts to form we typically when when Typically prices go above that and then it's a resistance that is established and then we stay above that.
So I will imply that we are forming this bear market bottom and then, you know, starting the bull market.
But yeah, first of all, I would just expect we touch it.
Right.
And then we will see how also, you know, when we touch it, you know, what are the, you know, what are the other metrics telling you, you know, when we touch it, that's really important to, to, to analyze.
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Right.
Okay.
All right.
Well, I feel like we're going to see you again exactly when that happens.
I was just looking back at our last few, like your last few appearances on the show seem to have come at these almost key moments.
And I feel like today is a good one where we just rejected two days ago.
I think your other appearance was in that week at the start of February and prior to the recent one, which was mid-March, which was kind of the start, around the start of this current rally.
So I feel like...
If we do, I feel like when and if we do dip back down to this like 69K, 70K support mark, I feel like that is going to align perfectly with your next appearance.
So I'll talk to our producer about making sure that that's a convenient time for me.
Great.
Well, Julio, anything else we should know right now about the market, Julio?
Anything else you're seeing?
Just the general idea.
I mean, we have had these rallies.
Just remember that even in bear market, we have.
strong rallies so um i i just you know take take it easy uh i see a lot of you know in social media uh media talks about um oh we're starting we're already in a bull market and that so just uh i would say just take it with caution right and this will happen but it doesn't mean that we are you know out of the bear market yet i mean i think people already doing a good job listening to the show listening to real analysts like you instead of just listening to to x or any other social media so uh anyways julio um good to have you back man thank you for all the insight um it's too bad this rally's failed but looks like it's something that that you you could kind of see coming uh and like i said i guess we'll see you at 70k and maybe the start of a fresh rally a fresh rally from there yeah thank you thank you for for the invitation of course man all right thank you julio Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event?
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