# Prediction Markets and the Evolution of Solana Ecosystem

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-04-17

## Transcript

So I think it's just the momentums are there.
I think it's just a matter of time where, you know, as those saying all the stars align, we'll see a big jump in the market to escape this, you know, choppy price.
Crypto might be coming out of the bear market, but builders are not slowing down either way.
Today, we're going to break down why prediction markets might be the next big financial primitive and what's going on in Solano ecosystem, as well as these new cash tags on X and what this all means for investors.
Hello and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that knows that just because there's a dollar sign in front of it does not mean that you should buy it.
I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Thursday, April 16th.
And today we are joined by DJ Hotrank.
DJ is a crypto veteran and the head of the research team at BirdEye, a prominent token tracking platform that offers live prices, charts and trading insights across various blockchains specializing in Solano.
She previously served as the research lead at SubWallet and as a Polkadot ambassador.
DJ knows crypto.
So inside and out, she's going to give us a lot of great alpha today.
If that all sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe.
Share this episode with someone who's going to enjoy it.
Today's episode is brought to you by Consensus Miami, where the next cycle starts.
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And without further ado, welcome back to the Milk Road Show.
DJ, how are you?
Good.
How are you?
Really happy to be here again.
I'm really happy to have you.
I think I enjoyed our last conversation very much.
So I'm excited to catch up with you again today.
But I thought a good place to start this with our for our audience would be to just cover a little bit about BirdEye.
You all describe yourselves as a crypto data intelligence pioneer powering Internet capital markets.
Exactly what does that mean and what does that look like?
What is BirdEye?
Yeah.
So BirdEye is a crypto intelligence company and we our mission is to democratize access to blockchain data so that everybody can understand and check on blockchain data to power their investments.
And we're going to talk about that in a bit.
And we're going to talk about that in a bit.
So let's get started.
So let's get started.
So let's get started.
And you mentioned about Internet capital markets.
So this is actually the term coined by Solana Foundation CMO Ash K in 2024.
And you mentioned Internet capital markets as opposed to the traditional capital markets.
The problem now with traditional capital markets is that it's very fragmented and and hard to access.
Right.
So it's gatekeeping and the decline in IPOs, meaning that high growth deals are only accessible.
恭喜 and not like low capital investors and permissionless surface right as just as the Internet democratized access to information.
Blockchain democratized access to capital.
So the idea of Internet capital market is that just as the Internet democratize access to information, blockchain democratize access to capital.
So the idea is that any type of asset can be traded, can be owned, can be signed.
be issued can be represented on the blockchain and can be accessible to anyone everywhere in the world so how bird eye powers that internet capital market is that if you go to bird eye and you use bird eye either as a retailer app or an api you will get access to every asset on the blockchain either you know tokenized stocks or tokenized commodities or meme coins or blue cheap tokens it's all available on bird eye where you can see stats and you can see traits you can see how smart money flows and you can use that information to make the best decision for your portfolio if you're not seeing this you're trading blind right now there are real moves happening behind the scenes that most people don't see until it's way too late inside milk row pro you can track exactly what our analysts are buying selling and what's on their watch lists before it moves martin recently unloaded 40 of his cash off of one signal and melvin is up multiple calls by like 50 and we're already up 30 this month on some alts this is all happening every week you can try it out for just a dollar for seven days the link is in the description okay great so you're you're democratizing access to information which is also helping as we're democratizing access to capital markets and helping people get connected in this evolving landscape of products and services um i want to ask you about something that got a lot of headline attention recently which is nikita beer who is the head of product for x and also an advisor for solana i believe announced that x is going to be launching or has launched rather i guess it's already live cash tags so that users can get the latest news and prices about uh different stocks or tokens directly in x talk to us about this product what what has your involvement been and why is this such a big change yeah so the idea of x cash tag is that when you search for or you post a cash so literally like a dollar sign and the ticker of the the token um x will automatically suggest um news and information and and the price of that token so you can select the asset that you had in mind so um i think this is a very natural um evolution of of x because previously you know if you talk about a token on um on x on previously twitter you will also use that cash tag in order to track all of the mentions of that tokens and now apart from that you can see the live price chart embedded in it and you also have like one minute price chart a 30 minutes price chart um and i think at some point i could i even see like off hours um price of uh of stocks so that the the hour is like of the off-hour price is like taken from on-chain data and yesterday was available uh in the us and canada and today it's available globally i think what's really interesting is that not just and blue chips token, you can also search for meme coins on X, and you will see the price chart, the historical data on X.
And I think that's just powerful, right?
Because the total user base of crypto and I think traditional finance still lives on X.
They share news on X, they discuss everything on X, and it just makes sense to have the token, the data of the token they're talking about directly on X.
And it just keeps the conversation flow very easily.
How BirdEye is involved in this new feature is that we collaborate with Dialect, and Dialect is the team that works with X in collaboration with the Solana Foundation to develop the X cashed out feature for Solana-based tokens.
So underneath Dialect, they orchestrate infra team and data team like Helios, like BirdEye, like Jupyter, to make sure that the data shown up on X for Solana tokens are stable, precise, and real-time.
And this is a team effort with very close support from the Solana Foundation.
So if you search Solana token on X, the data you see, the price is from Jupyter, the historical data is from BirdEye, and it's supported by Helios infrastructure.
So that's how we are involved in this whole new phenomenon.
Gotcha.
Okay.
So there's a lot of different team members, different stakeholders that are collaborating on this.
To support this as it rolls out on X, I'm kind of curious your thoughts on how big of a signal this is, because I think a lot of people were very excited about this.
And then once it was announced, we're a little bit like, I don't understand how this is that much different than functionality that X already had.
Can you talk to me about how you see this fitting into X as a platform?
And is this just another step towards X money or X becoming like another super app or like, talk to me about how you see this fitting into the progression of X as an app?
Yeah, I think there has been a lot of discussion about, how the team behind X is trying to drive this into more than just a newsfeed.
And I think that you can see pretty clearly that this is the super app is the direction that the app is veering towards.
Because I think X has the advantage of the user base.
And as I've mentioned before, everyone on crypto, everyone on intratify and even politics, right, politicians are living on X.
And so, for the longest time, I think X has been the go-to news sources.
It's like even faster than news outlet in some cases.
And there's a lot of launching happening on X.
There's a lot of, you know, politician tweeting on X that can move market.
And it just makes sense to integrate more financial functions and features to serve this specific and ever-growing user base.
And if you look at, I think if you look at the CashTag UI, it's really familiar.
It's really familiar for crypto users because it resembles a crypto wallet so much, right?
You see this on like Phantom and Minamask.
It's so familiar.
And I feel like they can just add a role of button that says buy, sell and swap.
And it just, you know, it's just becomes a mobile wallet.
And I think this is something that mobile wallet teams need to watch out for.
Like, how will they compete with such a huge platform that has like this massive and ever-growing user base?
So yeah, I think next thing definitely will be buy, sell and swap and X money maybe in the future.
But yeah, it's obviously like very clearly becoming this super financial super app.
Gotcha.
Okay.
I want to ask another question about this.
Does this directly drive value, economic activity, or just any other things, I guess, in general, directly back to Solana?
Or is this just right now, at least as it currently exists?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
You know, you guys are just helping to support with the historical token data for Solana and provide that to X.
Is that just like the sort of state of play now?
Or do you see any other sort of like value being driven back to Solana by this at this stage?
Like you described, it may change in the future, but like, where are we right now in terms of that relationship?
I think this is the first step is to provide the data infrastructure to display, you know, token prices and historical data on X.
But as X integrates more function, as I mentioned before, I think Solana can very readily be the infrastructure that powers a lot of financial functions that happens on X.
So say you can swap token on Solana, you can buy and sell token on Solana, you can do a lot of financial activities on Solana.
Because Solana is an R&B, it's being designed to serve that purpose as a general purpose blockchain that serves every financial activities, right?
It's the home of internet capital markets.
So I think if the opportunities present itself, I think Solana should be able to rise to the occasion and be the infrastructure that powers financial activities that are happening on this, their huge platform.
Gigi, this is very helpful.
This is one of the reasons why I wanted to talk to you after this came out, because this is this project has gotten a lot of attention.
But I think people are still figuring out some of these details of like, how this works, and how bullish is this?
What does it mean?
So that's really helpful on that.
Thank you so much.
I want to ask you about something else that you guys have written about recently at BirdEye, which is this large report that you've co-authored in collaboration with Jupiter and Chainlink, all about prediction markets.
The title was prediction markets as a new financial primitive.
And I wondered if you could just unpack for us a little bit about what this means.
What is a financial primitive, first of all?
And then why do you think that prediction markets are becoming such an important new one?
Yeah, so financial primitives, by definition, is the foundational composable building blocks upon which all financial activity derives.
So you can imagine this as the legal brick that ties the whole financial world together.
For example, you can imagine in the chat file world, it's loans, it's equity, it's derivatives, it's insurance.
And in the DeFi world, it can be lending protocols, it can be AMMs and whatnot.
So another thing that's important about financial primitives, is that these are composable, and they can work together to create even more complex products.
And so how prediction markets are now the new financial primitive?
It's a primitive for conditional pays out for risk hashing.
They can be composable with lending, right?
You can use your positions to ask collateral to borrow assets, or you can stack the positions with themselves to create a more complex product, such as like tokens payout if event and event B happen together simultaneously.
So as in the report, we argue that prediction markets serve as the new outcome-based financial instrument and a risk hashing tool.
So for outcome-based financial instrument, the price uncertainty and probability.
So is there essentially like earning profit or taking losses with these financial assets, and does it really matter?
And I think that's a very important question, because I think that the data is very, very important.
And people have real financial incentive to use this product.
And you can see in the data, I think there are now close to 3 million users of financial prediction markets all over.
Polymarket have like 80% something of their user base.
The user base on Solana, especially on Jupyter, predicts it's also like increasing past 16k.
financial product.
But also, another very powerful function of prediction markets is risk hedging.
So previously, in traditional models, you either take risk as like a constant factor, or you use or you see risk as like something that is continuously moving.
And it's really hard to pinpoint the risk that is associated with discrete event, like who's going to be the president, the US president for this election cycle?
Will the Fed cut rates?
Essentially, those are discrete event that is really hard to price into the risk management model.
So you can kind of price it through a proxy.
So like, will, you know, oil price go up or oil price go down that is related?
To the political, the news that are happening, right?
But with prediction markets, you can price the event itself.
And at any point in time, the probability of the event happening reflects in the price.
So for analysts in institutions who are building, you know, risk management model, it's really easy to just factor in the probability, aka the price of the event itself.
And you can, you know, calculate what is the most perfect timing to take action.
And so I think that is one of the reasons why prediction markets are gaining popularity in the recent years.
And I think it will continue to become a very strong financial primitive in the coming years.
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That's really helpful analysis.
And I think a lot of people are aware of prediction markets, but I hadn't really thought about them so much in terms of this composability with other financial primitives that you're talking about, about how this could have implications for things like insurance, for lending, for other things too.
In this report, you noted that prediction markets are much more accurate than traditional forecasting tools like expert forecasts or polls, like, you know, taking a poll of people who want to give their opinion on something.
You said that polymarket achieves a 90.8% accuracy four hours before resolution, but also an 86.2% accuracy one month before resolution of event.
This is, incredibly accurate.
Talk to me about what this unlocks for the market.
How does that accuracy, you know, unlock new kinds of value or products for the market?
What do you see as, as like being some of the implications of that high accuracy of these prediction markets?
Yeah.
So I think accuracy turns prediction markets from just interesting signals into usable infrastructure.
And, and as, and as I mentioned before how now a lot of institutions are starting to use prediction markets versus they can't do anything about discrete event.
Like, will there be a new president?
Will there be a new Fed rate cut?
Will there be like a new, you know, candidate showing up, et cetera?
Because prediction markets are gaining great accuracy, they can help in, you know, use cases such as a hash that can automatically scales as the risk increase or decrease, or, you know, teams can reliably looking at the probability of a certain event and allocate resources more rationally.
But I think one of the interesting thing to note about here is that accuracy increases according to liquidity.
So very thin markets don't have good accuracy.
And we see in the market, the Bria score is lowest in markets that has more than $1 million.
And that means that in order to make this a very reliable infrastructure, I think more liquidity should flow into prediction markets.
And I think institutions are very much aware of that.
We see movements like Bitwise filing for ETFs for the 2028 president election.
And we see like, institution like Bitcoin and Bitcoin are very much aware of that.
And I think, you know, I think there's a lot of, you know, I think there's a lot of, you know, like prop trading firms are thinking and considering adding prediction markets into their portfolio.
So I think we'll see more and more and higher accuracy as more liquidity flow into these markets.
Gotcha, because the price of the accuracy goes up.
And if you want good information, you got to pay for it.
So that seems to correlate that sense there.
Another thing you guys noted in this report is that the prediction market total notional volume has grown over 13x just in the last six months.
It's now over $150 billion.
This is enormous growth, obviously, but and a lot of users have come in.
It's really been one of the fastest growing sectors of the financial markets.
Do you have any ideas around how big these prediction markets are likely to become?
Because obviously, like you said, there's going to be more capital, more players coming in.
But how big of a sector of the market do you think this becomes?
Or do you have any way of forecasting how big this might get?
I think we should have a prediction market on there, don't we?
I was afraid of that.
Well, this is what everybody's gonna start doing this for everything now.
Exactly.
Exactly.
I think they can go to the trillions very easily in the next year, especially as more sports events are coming, like the World Cup is coming, and election cycles in 2028.
It's coming.
I think more capitals will be deployed into prediction markets.
And indeed, the market is not yet saturated.
You see polling market and Kaoshi hitting new all-time highs almost every week.
You see new all-time highs in volume.
New all-time highs.
New all-time highs in open interest.
And other than polling market and Kaoshi, other entrants, other new players in the field also experience all-time highs.
I think limitless on Bayes, the prediction market platform, also hitting new volume eight all-time high this week.
And you see multiple players are entering the field on BNB chain, like Opinion, like Predict.fun.
And institutions are also adopting, but just starting to do so, I think.
According to the survey by Accuity that we were quoting in the report, only 6% of the surveyed institutions saying the prediction market won't be the new big thing in the next three to five years.
So meaning that 94% of them are positive, that it will become a really major thing, carving out 5% of the whole economies in the next three to five years.
So that is a very positive thing.
Yeah.
I think there's a lot of positive sentiment from prop trading firms that are surveyed.
And I think they are correct.
I think 94% positive sentiment signaling that institutions are ready and are willing to deploy more and more capitals into this market.
And it's just fair, right?
The markets reward those who have good information that can predict the right outcome with such event.
Gotcha.
Yeah.
And I think that's a very good point, because you don't have that much consensus around something and you're seeing the market adopting it this rapidly.
Those predictions forecast make sense.
We talked about this a little bit, but I want to kind of bring this conversation a little bit full circle back to Solana here, because we talked about how the historical data for the tokens on X is being supported by a lot of different players in the Solana ecosystem.
We talked about prediction markets.
How does this come back to Solana?
Because I feel like I've heard a lot of different financial companies launching predictions through markets.
Obviously, Cauchy.
They're a big market.
But there's all the perpetuals have become a big product as well.
But a lot of that's happening on hype.
How does the Solana ecosystem benefit from this?
And how do we kind of like center the sole token behind all of this economic activity that's happening?
Yeah, yeah.
I think to be fair, you have to admit that Solana is a little bit slow on the perps and the prediction markets for even though like Cauchy, it's live on Phantom and Jupiter is also serving prediction markets to Solana.
So I think it's going to be a little bit of a challenge for Solana users, but the market share of them, it's quite marginal compared to to other chains.
But I think coming back to the point that I mentioned previously, that Solana has been focusing on the infrastructure that powers great UX and powers like cheap and easy financial activities on the chain.
Right.
So.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be a little bit of a challenge for Solana to get into the chain.
You see foreign L1 tokens launching on Solana.
You see tokenized stocks hitting new all time highs in trading volume on Solana.
I think Solana is infrastructure ready for this kind of activity of like high volume trading, low fee trading on prediction markets and perps.
And I think Solana is slowly gaining wins in fundamentals.
And this will.
I mean, sooner or later reflect in the price of Solana.
I think I mentioned in the last podcast that I was in that Solana will go into 2026 a little bit slow, but it will eventually, you know, move back to its all time highs.
And I'm still positive on that.
OK, well, that's exactly the question that I did want to ask you.
And I went back and watched our last conversation, too.
So I wanted to revisit this because Solana is now sitting around eighty five dollars and it's been seeing, like you said, a lot of different competition.
But it's also one of the most robust ecosystems in all of digital assets.
You know, I hear you saying you think it's going to go back to new all time highs.
Do you expect that to happen in 2026?
Do you think that time horizon is extended?
What's your outlook in the near to medium term for Solana here?
Yeah, I think I think the I'm 100 percent positive on the long term.
I think it will come back around the time of the next election.
It normally is.
Right.
It's going to be a big year, but 2026 and 2027, I think we'll just like sideways move up and down a little bit around 100.
But yeah, I'm positive that, well, the latest will be 2028 and we'll we'll get back the all time high.
Gotcha.
OK.
Yeah.
And I think that's something that a lot of people have been seeing and sort of struggling a little bit with that frustration of just like this choppy price action right now.
Another question I want to ask you around this is what are you guys focusing on at Berto?
I for your next report?
Because I know you have some products coming, which I'll ask about those in a second.
But you write a lot of great research and I learn a lot from your reports.
Obviously, this one on prediction markets was really illuminating on that.
What are you working on writing about next?
Or do you have something in mind that you're going to be covering next in your research reports?
Yeah.
So I'm going to answer two questions at once because it ties together.
So BirdEye has just launched a new product called BirdEye Perps.
And with this BirdEye Perp, we provide the decision layer that turns raw Perps data into visual intelligence and actionable insights.
So we're starting with hyperliquid and we're moving into other chains very quickly.
So what you have with BirdEye Perps, it will be birdeye.so slash perps.
You get overall market exposure across different tokens.
You can see directional bias like long or short for each of the specific cohort and the traders cohort.
And you can see that each of the specific cohort that we curate is filtered by win rate, by P&L, and by capital size.
So you can see different views of where the tokens, where the capitals are being deployed.
And in each of the cohort, once you identify a profitable cohort, for example, you can jump into that cohort and see what wallets are driving the profits within this specific cohort.
You see full P&L history.
You see win rate and performance breakdown.
Live position.
And token level conviction signals.
And you can mirror the moves or you can front run the crowd.
Yeah, that's my one-minute pitch of the new BirdEye Perps.
That was beautiful.
Thank you so much.
That was a great copy.
Very well done.
And the next report that we're going to do, I think, is probably going to be about Perps.
I think it's like one of the two major narratives right now alongside prediction markets.
We're having Perps and we're having hyperliquid data.
Hyperliquid, the biggest winner of all time.
And we see other chains trying to compete with hyperliquid.
And Solana being one of the major chains that are wanting to compete in this Perp war.
And I think now that BirdEye has provided Perps data, it would be very interesting to look at the data that we have and see what it's having, what is Perp, what is the state of Perp trading at the moment and where it's heading next.
So, stay tuned.
Okay.
Well, I'm definitely going to do that.
That was a great plug, a really great answer.
Very thorough.
I want to get your thoughts on something else here.
We've talked a lot about financial primitives.
We've talked about prediction markets.
We've talked about Perp now as another thing you guys are moving into.
And these are relatively new financial primitives that have found huge market adoption, product market fit.
And you described a lot of the things that BirdEye does.
In terms of being transparent, giving users information, allowing them to see a lot of information to inform their decisions on these things.
Do you have any thought about what it looks like once these users shift from being human to being more of agentic operators or AI agents coming into the space using these financial primitives?
Have you thought about that at all?
Do you have any take on what you think that might look like and just how that might drive the next wave of adoption for these financial primitives that are so popular?
Yeah, that's a great question.
I think it's a very important question.
I don't think we've really had any sort of real adoption in these days now that AI adoption is everywhere and we are moving into a new kind of internet, which is like an agentic internet, right?
BirdEye is actually now supporting X402.
X402, yes.
BirdEye Data has launched support for that.
And now BirdEye Data, we have MCP2.
And if you're using our API, your agent can easily read the data that we provide via via mcp so we are fully aware of the agentic internet and we are doing our best to make our data available and readable and consumable by agents so that users who want to get the information and take actions via agents they can do so very easily with bird eye data wall street is here the white house is here all of crypto is here we're talking about consensus the world's longest running and most influential digital assets conference happening in miami may 5th through 7th this is where 20 000 plus decision makers from 100 plus countries gather to shape the future of finance 72 are director level or above representing over 4 trillion in crypto aum three days six stages 500 plus speakers including michael saylor brad garlinghouse anatoly yakovenko and eric trump tackling the three forces driving trillions on chain crypto scale institutional integration and agentic commerce deals get signed here funds get raised here the next cycle starts here register and save 20 with code milk road at consensus.coindesk.com gotcha okay so you're preparing for that as well um this has been really interesting uh dj i always learn a lot from our conversations i really appreciate the way that you're so focused on on data and and so closely tied to that but then you're also really great at staying current of what's going on in the news what narratives are developing i'm curious what you're looking for in terms of a catalyst in the market it feels like just like you said it's been a lot of chop there might be a lot more chop are there specific catalysts in the market that you might be watching for to kind of kick off the next wave of bullish momentum here if it's the clarity act if it's the end of the conflict in iran if it's something else what do you think is the next catalyst for crypto and and maybe even particularly for solana here yeah i think i think that we need to see a little bit more stability on um the the politics side for um for crypto to get you know stabilized a little bit um now that that people are like feeling like one of the most important elements of the world and um if if the world is going to be able to utilize data and that's definitely going to be something that we should be focusing on as opposed to like feeling a little bit calmer in this recent news.
But I think we are actually seeing a lot of momentums in terms of institutional adoptions.
And I think it's just a matter of time, really, because we're seeing like capitals being deployed into this industry every day, like, you know, new institutions are tokenizing something news on chain.
And somebody is launching a stablecoin, somebody is collaborating with like a payment infrastructure to bring stablecoin payment, to get stablecoin payments adopted more widely.
So I think it's just the momentums are there.
I think it's just a matter of time, where, you know, as the OCA and all the stars align, we'll see a big change in the market.
big jump in the market to escape this, you know, choppy price period that we're talking about.
So yeah, I think we just need to wait and see.
Wait and see is sometimes one of the hardest things to do in the markets, but also one of the smartest.
So I appreciate the call for patience here.
DJ Hot Trang, thank you so much for coming on the Milk Road Show and sharing all this with us today.
Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?
Okay, so go to X, your favorite news source.
If you want to look for me, you can go to DJ Hot Trang, or you look to for BirdEye, you can search for BirdEye.
So or BirdEye data will have all of the newest updates on Twitter.
And all of the new data available from BirdEye will be delivered to you via Twitter.
So go to X, try some X cash tag that is powered by BirdEye data and follow us.
That was great.
Thank you so much for coming on for plugging all this stuff for sharing all these it really like you're really close to the source.
So thank you so much for coming on.
And I'll see you on the next episode of the Milk Road Show.
I hope we can talk again soon.
Thank you so much.
See you.
See you.
And thank you all for joining us.
I hope you all learned something today.
So until next time, as I always say, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milk Road Show.
Thanks for being here, everyone.
Bye.
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