# On-Chain Signals Indicate Bitcoin Bear Market Stabilization

**Podcast:** The Milk Road Show
**Published:** 2026-03-13

## Transcript

And then selling pressure is gone, or you know, a really minimal levels when there's no more profits to be made, right?
It's just losses.
And we got that like that capitulation and the selling pressure just you know, it's gone.
Uh that's that's how I see like that whole cycle, right?
From really extreme unrealized profits to really extreme unrealized losses.
What's up, everybody?
It's LG Du Set here, and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show, where we turn messy crypto markets into slightly less messy explanations.
Today is Friday, March 13th.
We are recording on March 12th.
And while many people were calling for the next leg up, Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant has been arguing this whole time that we're actually still in a bear market, and he was right from the start.
But now some of the latest on-chain data is starting to show maybe a little bit of a shift under the surface.
Selling pressure is easing, US demand may be returning, and spot demand is no longer collapsing at the same pace.
These are his words, not mine.
So are these signs of a major turnaround or just a little relief rally?
We'll ask Julio in just a moment.
Today's episode is brought to you by Midnight, bringing rational privacy to blockchain, warbucks, the easiest way to trade crypto, and nexo, earn interest, borrow and trade crypto.
Julio, welcome back to the show, man.
Always a great time to have you.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you for having me back, LG.
Okay, so I got really excited.
Uh this morning when I got your slides ahead of time.
I got the cheat sheet.
Uh it things the very the very first slide, man.
The very first slide is called Bitcoin's Relief Rally.
And then the second one is titled Bear Market Conditions Eased in the Last Few Weeks.
Tell me, Julio, what do you mean by that?
Yeah, I mean, I think we have had, you know, of course, uh uh a correction, a big correction, right?
We're on a bear market, we'll are still in a bear market, and we had that correction uh down to 60k, right?
Uh early in February.
And then since then, we've been consolidating, right?
And so you can see in that chart, which is our bull score index, we had a little bit of an uptick in in that in that index to 30.
It goes from zero to uh 100, or 100 is like the most bullish, right?
We at some point uh during the last few weeks, we actually hit zero, right?
So extremely bearish conditions.
But now there's there's an uptick there at 230.
And and some of the some of the uh the metrics that we will see um ahead in the slides, is uh they are like not that bearish as yet they were a few weeks ago.
And so that's that uh has coincided with prices, you know, consolidating, trading between from 60, we went up to 74.
So yeah, a little bit of uh um less bearish, I would say, right?
Less less less uh fear, I would I would say in in the market, but you know, just take it, uh take it easy, and we are still inside the bear market, but at least for for the for the time being, not not that bearish.
Can you remind me, Julio?
This bull score that we see in on the chart, it is the purple uh area here.
What what is what is this based on?
What is the what is the bull score calculating?
So it's it takes into consideration nine on-chain metrics, which I follow uh really closely, and one technical technical signal also for the price of Bitcoin.
So it's it's um it's considering uh valuation metrics uh for the price of Bitcoin, things like the MBRB and some some uh valuation metrics that we are proprietary to us, um the PNL index, bull bull cycle indicator, and then some momentum also, some momentum metrics uh about prices valuation, but in the short term compared to some uh metrics of uh realized price for for traders, all this is on like on chain.
Also, stable coin liquidity is something that we also track how stable coin liquidity is growing or not.
So it's it's basically saying if if the that metric is switch on or switch off in terms of if if it is supportive for prices or not, right?
So when we are in the red zone and and basically all the metrics are turned off, right?
And as we get to uh less bearish, these metrics start to turn on, right?
In in terms of uh the what they are um telling us about the market, right?
So yeah, we had that uptick from basically uh at some point zero to 30, and that's coinciders with prices just consolidating and coming from 60k to 74k, and we are now at 7070k.
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And okay, so and you saying here that the index has switched from extra bearish to bearish.
So not as bearish as exactly.
What's hold on?
But what's the next one after not as bearish?
Neutral.
And then neutral.
Neutral.
This is like when you answer a survey and it's like agree, like uh agree, strongly agree, strongly disagree, slightly disagree.
That's I like this.
I like your I like your scale here.
Um based on you know hard data.
Yeah, okay, okay.
I like that.
Um, so so do you think I guess maybe we'll we'll kind of keep going through the slides because you can tell us uh let's round up some more of the data here and then I can ask you some of the harder questions.
So your next one is yeah, and we mentioned this in the intro.
Bitcoin spot demand is contracting at a slower pace.
So it's accelerating.
So it's contracting, but not as much as it was.
Um it's still contracting, but you know, that and this is one of the of the metrics that goes into this bad index, and which is if it's growing, then it's turned on, and if it's not growing, then it's turned off, right?
But you can also see that you know we had a you know a really big contraction, you know, uh at the start of this year.
We were contracting at a at a pace of uh 100,000 and 36 136 000 uh bitcoin in a 30-day period that's that's what it it it is uh uh measuring but then it it it it started to contract you know slower down the contraction phase that's basically and and that that is coinciding with um you know prices prices also consolidating um and and you know not not being in a correction mode uh so that's you know one of the things that attract is monitored demand uh this is uh one of our best metrics for that i i think and it's showing that it's still not growing and that's one of the things that I say okay uh we're still never marketing demand is contracting right but at least uh from the time being is it's not you know contracting as as much as it was so you say sorry can you explain that 136 000 bitcoin number to me it it has gone from that to 46 000.
What is that?
What is that number?
It's it's measuring the growth in demand and spot demand.
The growth or the contraction.
That's what it's measuring.
You know how how much are we growing in in terms of spot demand?
So it's spot demand, and that's measured.
Is that measured from from an on-chain perspective?
Okay, so to understand this.
And that what's the time frame for that?
A 30-day, 30-day time frame?
Yeah, is it a 30-day sum of of that of that uh of that demand change?
Uh so yeah.
So if you see, you know, we're still contracting, but you see a less, you know, uh uh less negative number.
So it's a it means that the pace of contraction is low, slow it down, and then that's of course coincided with prices also consolidating.
That's so it's less bearish also from that side.
From that from that from that, um, yeah, from that from that side, uh, we we see less contraction in demand right now.
Right.
And that how do you measure that demand?
Because you're saying it's on-chain, so explain that to me.
So what's what's where's that demand kind of measured from?
Because it's not from central exchanges.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
No, it's for example, this so it's called apparent demand.
This uh type of calculation is really um used a lot on when you want to estimate demand for, for example, um like uh commodities.
Like uh I I use this uh type of uh type of uh measurement for when I was uh working as an analyst for commodities, especially aluminum.
So I I you know part of my background is a research analyst for commodities.
So we try to estimate demand, right?
Because demand is not um is not really you know, you cannot really see it, right?
Uh you can only indirectly estimate demand.
Uh it's more difficult to see it directly.
So what we say is okay, we look at production and we look at inventories and and you know, and the change in those.
If you if you look at inventories and you know, and they are declining, then it means like demand is outpassing production.
That that what was what it meant for for metals for aluminum.
And so I apply that for Bitcoin.
So the inventory is the one year, the Bitcoin that hasn't moved in a year or more.
That's like the inventory.
If it if it's if it's if it gets lower, that means that demand is outpacing, you know, production or new issuance.
So it's it's it's measuring that change between the inventory and new new new people, new investors, dragging, you know, from that inventory, right?
That's the the logic behind that.
And it's the if I took it from the commodity, commodity research side.
Got it.
Okay, so to basically summarize this, you're seeing that there was negative demand, basically, and that that is really slowing down to the tune of it was negative 136,000.
Now it's just negative 46,000.
46,000, yeah.
So from the from the start of 2026 to today, I missed that part.
So basically, in the last two and a half months, we're seeing that that essentially like almost like a cell pressure, sort of.
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, yes.
Yeah, so less pressure, yeah.
Right.
Okay, and it looks like did it flip positive a couple weeks ago?
Is that what I'm saying here?
Yeah.
Exactly.
Yeah, so for a few days.
Okay.
But yeah, that's uh what one of the things that we monitor a lot is you know how's demand doing.
So it really tells you.
Wow.
Okay.
Okay, great.
I mean, what is this?
So does this uh like if I were to zoom out on this chart, Julio, what would I see?
Like, would I see long periods in contraction?
Or or is do these or is this kind of one that one of the longest stretches you would see on a chart like this in the last like let's say two, three months?
I mean, in the last two, three months, like 2025 was uh really you know, you can see that actually there, like we had a longer period of demand expansion.
Um but if you were to see like the previous birth bird cycle, right?
So basically 2022 was you know, everything was like negative.
You see this chart, it's all negative 2022, right?
Uh and and also you know, the contraction is accelerating.
So yeah, and in bear markets, you will see that like this indicator it just stays red, right?
In contraction, it actually hasn't been that high up a contraction compared to previous to the previous cycle, for example.
So that you we also have see that like okay, demand is contracting, but not as much as the previous cycle.
That's an another another take.
Uh, when you see like an alarm longer time longer time span for for these metrics.
Okay.
And would you if we're still in the bear, would you uh s expect this to stay negative for a long time?
Yes, yes, exactly.
So that's what has happened in like in previous cycles.
Like it stays uh in contraction for you know almost the whole year, like all 2022 uh all and 2018, right?
So you will expect that.
And all of 2026 basically.
Yeah, I mean if if we continue, yeah, it it should be in contraction.
That's why we monitor this really closely.
Oh say it so Julio.
Okay.
All right, that's fair.
That's fine.
That's fine.
Let's keep going.
There's still uh I'll still take short term good signs uh no matter what.
Okay, US investors uh stopped selling Bitcoin.
I mean that kind of seems to correlate pretty strongly to your last chart.
Tell me about this.
Yes, exactly.
So when we try to assess um how demand's doing specifically in the US, we use this uh you know the looking at Coinbase prices compared to other exchanges.
Typically bull markets will be you know Coinbase prices uh a little bit higher, like uh sustainably higher than in another exchanges.
So there's more like it it it implies that there's more demand there uh in in the US and and it drives like the cycle to the upside.
And if you can see and and the opposite happens when we are in a bear market and actually you can see it there in in the chart from you know basically in November to um to a few weeks ago uh that premium is was negative so US demand contracting like more than outside the US but also you see this uh in the last uh few weeks how it went you know from uh really negative levels extremely negative and it it went up to even is it's positive right now I think um so they stop it selling basically uh the US and that drives prices you know uh hig relative to prices in in other exchanges that's what is is showing and and as you said it really it it it shows like the same uh pattern that in the previous metric right like the apparent demand so it tells you like uh they're they're they are um converging in that in that sense that are are showing less less selling pressure and even you know a little bit of of uh demand growth there uh so yeah that that's also why you know we see the prices you know going to 60 from from 60 to to the 70s right yeah uh so yeah another another a little bit of um you know positive positive uh event uh in the last few few weeks how much how much volume are we talking on this like spot um index or I guess this this this coinbase premium index of spot bitcoin how much bitcoin are we talking there because last time because in the last chart you were telling us that we were the demand had changed from uh negative 136 to negative 46000 right so do you do you have do you are you able to see how is it a similar amount is it way more on Coinbase is way less I mean from from this chart alone you can't really tell that it's just telling you that there's more demand relative to to the other you know outside the US it's that's what it's telling you like it doesn't tell you like in the volume right you can't see that like Coinbase doesn't have the though those metrics like they don't you can't see that number okay I mean you could you could see like volume I guess trading volume right uh on Coinbase or on or also what what we see on chain actually um and it concides with this one is the flow of Bitcoin from other exchanges to Coinbase like when the the premium is positive it incentivizes you know uh traders or investors or market makers to you know capture that arbitrage right and and you see the flow actually from the other exchanges into Coinbase when that premium is positive and and actually yeah we we've seen that I have the volume right now of of that flow recently but we have seen that it increased uh coinciding with this premium turning you know switching from deeply negative to to positive so you can see that on chain like that flow of Bitcoin between the exchanges is this uh is this uh is there such an index like this for other countries or is it only for US that you can see this?
I mean we mostly track this one because you know it's the US is really important and compared to the other other markets but I guess you could do the same premium analysis with you know other exchanges there's also like um a a premium uh for South Korea right because also it's an important uh market and and uh there's a lot also premium for for Korean exchanges and also tells you the same like the demand in the in Korea spot demand uh yeah you can do that for different exchanges for sure but we mostly track like Coinbase because of the size and because the important in the US and and relatively to the other to the other exchanges.
Yeah okay that makes sense and is this I'm assuming you track track the US obviously because it's a m it's a massive market and that this trend, do you think that this would continue, or is this the same contingent as the other one where it's like it might it will probably be in the green, but only briefly during the bear market, or could we see this stay positive for a long time?
Yeah, no, I would say it's the same.
I mean, during bear markets if we if we are still in the bear markets, typically like the bear market rallies coincide with you see the premium going to positive just for a little while, and then you know it starts to to become negative.
Actually, you can see that on December, right?
Um the last time it was positive.
Yeah, right here.
So if we are in a bear market, the signal you know changes uh to okay, it became positive, so maybe it's time to sell, right?
That's that's the it switches when we change market regime.
So I would say, you know, yeah, it's uh it's more more of that, you know, temporarily uh uh decrease in the contraction of demand.
So so far I would say say that it's not that we're gonna be just turning into bull bull bull run right away, right?
So not not um not um today, I would say.
What when you say market when you say market regime, what do you mean?
So if we are just in a bull or bear, it it depends.
So you so the metrics you you kind of interpret it differently when we are like in a bull market.
Um, so corrections are buying opportunity, right?
But we are if we are in a bear market, then probably like you have a rally and then it's selling opportunity.
So it's it it it differs it uh when depending on the market regime, which I'm just referring that to to be like bullish or bearish regime?
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Got it.
Okay.
Let's jump to the next one.
Uh traders selling pressure eased after unrealized losses reaches extreme levels.
Yeah, this is uh one metric that we track to analyze um how much unrealized profits or losses do traders uh it's like a pain, it's like a pain index.
It's like a pain index of how much how painful things are for people that still hold.
Yeah.
Oh god.
Exactly.
And you can see, I mean, in in in bull markets, the those uh you know green areas there are the when there's a lot of unrealized profits, right?
Uh so when we have a like a good run in the price and those unrealized profits, uh the margin really uh increases, and you can say, okay, maybe we have now a correction because you know they start selling to uh to realize those profits.
But in the bear market is is the the opposite, right?
So we see those red areas uh recently.
It means that they there's a lot of, you know, if they sell, they just realize a lot of losses, right?
So it's there's not much more incentive to sell, right?
And so when we get to those extreme levels is when okay, you say, you know, prices in the short term are are just too low, right?
And that's what happens.
Uh when we got to the 60 level, 60k, those unrealized losses were you know extreme levels.
And and so that's why we see we say, okay, prices are too low, when maybe we have like a real if relief rally, and and that's what what happened.
We got to, you know, from sixties to seventy five K.
Uh so when there's you know that kind of uh uh of um extreme losses for for traders.
And is this is this uh the the lowest level on this chart, and it only goes back four years, is in middle of twenty twenty two, which I would assume around there is probably almost like just after now, because it's a four-year chart.
So in the spring in Q2 2022.
Is it would you expect this chart to have a similar look this summer, like this spring and summer?
I mean, it it's possible, right?
Because we're in a bear market, but you know, in 2022 we had that extreme level that you see there in 2022.
I think it's just after, you know, we had the Luna collapse in May, and then I think June was like three 3 O C and all those C5, like BlockFi.
So it wasn't really FTX in there somewhere.
This type of entities were you know blowing up.
Um so I mean yeah, in in November, but if we don't have like that sort of uh events when then it shouldn't be as extreme as that, right?
Uh so we just got to though those stream levels, but not that's as as low as as when that those events happened.
So it's not a given that we should see that, right?
Um even right now it's uh the the those unrealized losses are really you know really high.
So so uh that's why I think when we got to those levels, you know, prices start to to stabilize because selling selling pressure really eases when when we are at those you know streaming levels for for unrealized losses.
And is that because the sellers are gone?
Like the people that are still holding are not about to sell at a massive unrealized loss.
Is like is that basically like the leading theory here?
Yeah, for well, first is people take profits, right?
First, so that's when the most of the the selling comes, right?
When when there's a lot of profits to be made, and then and then we we see that that selling pressure.
Actually, when you have really high unrealized profits, and then you start seeing if you look at exchange inflows, for example, they also spike because a lot of the you know investors or traders are you know, they want to sell, so you see that.
So a lot of the selling comes when we are at high, uh unrealized profits.
But then it starts to come down like those profits, so it's the selling pressure starts to ease, and then selling pressure is gone, or you know, really minimal levels when there's no more profits to be made, right?
It's just losses.
And and we got that like that capitulation and and the selling pressure just you know, it's gone.
Uh that's that's how I see like that that whole cycle, right?
From really extreme unrealized profits to really extreme uh unrealized losses.
Got it.
Okay, yeah, that makes sense.
Uh long-term holders selling reached the lowest 30-day pace since June 2025.
Also seems like a pretty good sign, right?
Yeah.
That's kind of what you were saying.
Exactly.
I mean, exactly, exactly.
So yeah, yeah, we we see we track this selling from from long-term holders, and you can see that really clear those those two you know peaks.
Um first in November 2024 after we got to 100k uh for the first time.
And and that happens because uh there's a lot of unrealized profits to be made, right?
And then we we experienced like a really heavy selling from from this uh cohort of holders in December, like around December, right?
The first the first uh when we hit like 80k, 90k, I think for the first time, we saw that spike to almost you know nine hundred thousand uh Bitcoin being sold by this by these long-term holders.
But right now, after that, it's just uh you know it it has really you know decreased, and so it puts less selling pressure to to the price, right?
Uh when when long-term holders are not not selling at those at those uh levels, high levels.
And I and as you see, I mean, if we see all these uh charts, right?
Um one by one, right?
But they all tend to you know coincide, you know, it tells you like the same story, like uh it's less demand contraction and also you know uh more unrealized losses, so selling pressure.
You say selling pressure also easy because of that.
So it's it's telling that story, right?
Um, so yeah, it this is what this implies is that at least we get we we have less selling pressure from this cohort of of holders, which typically they can sell a lot of a lot of bitcoins.
I also like I this is actually really interesting where if you look at the end of 2024 and early 2025, you have a huge spike in long-term holders selling, but you don't have a drop in the price, right?
Where the price sustains into January, early February, right?
And that's around the the the inauguration day tariff time, and then and then price goes down, but by that point selling uh has almost stabilized, right?
Yeah, um, so it's really slowed down, and then this year, or like in this this this go around Q4 and then Q1, you have a huge spike in price, but selling really takes its time catching up, and selling doesn't spike until after we've topped on the price, until like a few months after, because then the top of the price is October 6th here, but then the selling doesn't peak until like mid-November or early December.
Yeah, you know what?
The difference between the two peaks, this is also interesting and and and it's a great point.
For in the first one, in 2024 and start of 2025, if you look at this chart, but if you put this in the same chart, long-term holders selling and also demand, like apparent demand, right?
You see that at those at that at that first peak, you see um demand was also still growing really strong.
So it was able to absorb that selling.
And if you see in the in the in the in the peak this this year, demand was already contracting.
So that's that selling pressure is is not absorbed as as easy.
So that's that's the difference.
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Stablecoin liquidity is still stable coin liquidity is still contracting but has stabilized.
Interesting.
What do you mean by that?
It's it's this the liquidity is still contracting.
I thought we were growing on stable coins, but you you you explained this to me.
This is this is us dt.
So it's uh change in USDT market cap.
Uh this is mostly what we follow for liquidity because USDT is the most used stable coin by far in exchanges, like for trading.
So yeah, uh, you can see that in November, since November, it started to the growth slowed down significantly, right?
And then we contract as in starting in February.
But if you see that that's uh that's uh line, the purple line.
Uh so it's so is USDT is the area, right?
But the purple line is the moving average.
So I use that to um to to see when you know the trend is changing.
So we can be contracting, uh still contracting, and and that's not like really bullish, but the trend is like shifting uh because you know that the metric came above, uh across it above the moving average, right?
So that's that's kind of kind of telling you like the trend it could be shifting.
That's why I say like it the contraction stabilize, we're not contracting as much, but and then we're starting to see like a like a switch in the trend of liquidity.
So that that also you know coincides with with price, with with uh stabilizing, with demand also not contracting as much, right?
So it tells you like uh you know, a story of uh that we may be you know sta stabilizing at least for for the short term.
This is one heck of a chart, man.
In terms of the the cap being positive for so long and um now being in the negative basically for the last month.
If we zoom out, if we were to zoom out on this, Julio, would we see a similar story in downturns?
Because you don't have it.
You have like a dip into early 2025 and then a spike and then a bit of a dip, but it never turned a negative during the tariff kind of mini bear market of last year.
So when what other times in history has it turned negative?
Uh I think 2022 was negative also with that period of the same thing.
Just negative.
Yeah, exactly.
So that's one when you see.
And it's and it's you know, for for bull for bull runs, it's not it's not only about seeing the contraction, but also like the slowdown.
It's really important as as you see uh starting November 2025, like a really um significant slowdown in the growth, right?
So if this was a normal chart, you see a nice rounding here at the bottom as well.
Some of you see nice rounding, but a bit of a you know, kind of I see what you mean by stabilizing, kind of like an easing.
Uh all right, last one.
Price, okay.
This is what we really want to know.
Price resistance stands in 76 to 86k.
So you're telling me that it'll be hard for us to break above those levels from here?
Um yeah, so when we are in a bear market here, we're we are seeing uh some you know price uh value models.
It's based on the on-chain realized price bands.
So we're we're tracking like um the average purchase of Bitcoin that would that is being held between one month to three months.
This is you know, typically what a trader will do, uh hold it for one to three months.
So it's it's a it's a assessing that like that average purchase price.
So in our bull market, that price, which is the the uh purple line there it acts as like a support right so when we get corrections typically price goes to that level to that level uh and then bounces back.
But when we switch to a bear market is the opposite like I've been saying you know about the market regimes now that level turns into resistance right so we when we get rallies as with the one that we are kind of experiencing a a relief rally uh we see prices going to that level to to that level uh so the range or the zone will be around you know six 66k to 86k which is where with this we're where this metric is right now um so around that I would say is those are possible targets and and around that I should expect like a you know we we hit resistance and then a correction happens if we are still in like in a bear market like we are right now.
So so yeah that's that's the you know the I would say like the plausible prices if you're expecting um a rally right don't get too carried away.
Is those are the like the most likely levels when we hit resistance um but yeah, that's that's the you know the the key message there.
What what what plausible prices to expect if we get you know if this rally continues.
What would indicate to you that the bear market is over?
Well, first the if if we go to back to remember back to the first uh the first slide, not the second slide, the the bull bear, right?
Typically when we are exiting bear market and uh bull market starting, this index is already above 80.
Uh even uh if we are still like forming the the you know the the ultimate um the ultimate uh bottom for prices, this index already spiked it you know to yeah, like 60 above 60.
That that was uh you know in the previous bear market that happened, it spikes to 60, 70, and and prices are still forming like that bottom.
So that's uh like an indication uh that okay, we're maybe we're switching to those to from a bear to a bull.
That's the first thing that I will uh look at, like all these all these metrics converging into you know turning it on, right?
Um uh even before price starts to really uh going into a bull run.
So first thing I will like to see is that like the index just spikes to 60, 70.
That's that's what what where what we have seen in previous previews, like when we when we change regimes from bear to bull.
And where can we follow this chart, Julio?
Uh well you can go to our platform, cryptoquan.com.
Perfect.
There's uh all that that I uh show here is there uh for for um for people that want to follow this and monitor Bitcoin and the and the on-chain metrics you can go to cryptoquan.com and everything's there.
Okay.
Perfect.
Well listen Julio, I mean this has been my favorite podcast that we've done together because you've been very bullish.
Or not very bullish, but you've been slightly slightly uh bullish a little bit.
Uh and you've you've given us a really good story here and you know I think it's always really relieving to see a lot of these on-chain metrics on the show because we do a lot of fundamentals, we do a lot of macro but I you know you're one of our few guests who actually has real technical stuff that's based on on-chain data.
So um you know I really love these and I learn a lot when we do them.
So so thank you man.
Thank you for coming on the show and um I don't know where we'll be next time we have you on.
I feel you come on about once a month and and this has been a positive one but uh hopefully hopefully the the rally is still going next time we see you.
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