# Roaring 2020s: US Stocks, Gold, and Japan

**Podcast:** Handelsblatt Today - Der Finanzpodcast mit News zu Börse, Aktien und Geldanlage
**Published:** 2026-01-28

## Transcript

Hallo liebe Today-Fans.
Wir haben gute Neuigkeiten.
Neben Today gibt es beim Handelsblatt ab sofort einen neuen Finanzpodcast.
HandelsblattInvest ist der neuer Podcast für professionelle Investoren und ambitionierte Privatanlegerinnen und Anleger, zu denen sich bestimmt auch viele von Ihnen zählen.
Unsere langjährige Wall Street-Korrespondentin Astrid Dörner spricht jede Woche mit internationalen Finanzmarktexperten über die wichtigsten Trends an den Kapitalmärkten.
Freuen Sie sich auf exklusive Analysen zu Aktien, Anleihen, Rohstoffen oder Krypto.
Jeden Mittwochmorgen gibt es eine neue Folge.
Hören Sie doch einfach mal rein und abonnieren Sie direkt.
Dafür können Sie einfach in Ihrem Podcast Player nach Handelsblattinvest suchen.
Für Sie als treue Today-Hörerinnen und Hörer veröffentlichen wir die erste Folge von Handelsblatt Invest, ausnahmsweise auch hier kostenlos in diesem Kanal.
Danach benötigen Sie ein Handelsblattabo, um den Podcast weiter zu hören.
Und das können Sie ganz einfach mit einem Probeabo für einen Euro machen.
Und damit übergebe ich an Astrid, die in Ihrer allerersten Folge den prominenten Wall Street-Bullen Ed Yard Danny zu Gast hat.
Hallo und herzlich willkommen zur allerersten Folge von Handelsblatt Invest, dem Podcast für Profi-Investoren und ambitionierte Privatanleger.
Ich bin Astrid Dörner.
Nach 16 Jahren als Handelsblattreporterin an der Wall Street starte ich jetzt als Finanzkorrespondentin in Frankfurt.
Und ich freue mich wirklich sehr, Sie bei meinem neuen Podcast zu begrüßen.
Hier sprechen wir immer mittwochs über die wichtigsten Themen, die die Kapitalmärkte bewegen und was das für Ihre Investmententscheidung bedeutet.
Die erste Folge ist kostenlos, damit Sie testen können, ob Ihnen der Podcast auch gefällt.
Alle weiteren Folgen können Sie dann mit einem digitalen Handelsblattabo hören.
Abonnieren Sie unseren Investkanal auf den Podcast-Plattformen Ihrer Wahl, um keine Folge zu verpassen.
Und weil das hier für uns alle neu ist, möchte ich Ihnen zunächst mal einen kleinen Überblick geben, wie unsere Invest-Folgen aufgebaut sind.
Wir haben zwei Rubriken, den Deep Dive und den Big Bad.
Im Deep Dive wollen wir es genau wissen.
Was treibt die Kurse von Aktien, Anleihen, Rohstoffen und Krypto wirklich?
Welche große Markttrends verbergen sich hinter den Schlagzeilen und was wird morgen vielleicht schon überholt sein?
Um zu verstehen, wie die Finanzmärkte wirklich ticken, holen wir im Deep Dive internationale Kapitalmarktexperten vor das Mikrofon.
Damit Sie erfahren, was die Finanzprofis schon wissen.
Bei der Big Bad lehnen wir uns weit aus dem Fenster und polieren die Glaskugel, wenn Sie so wollen.
Hier gibt es jede Woche eine ganz konkrete Kursprognose zu einem Asset.
Das kann eine Einzelaktie sein, ein Edelmetall oder auch ein Index.
Mal ist das mit fundamentalen Kindzahlen unterlegt und mal mit charttechnischen Signalen.
Und yes, wir haben jede Menge zu besprechen.
In unserem ersten Deep Dive gibt es heute ein Interview mit Ed Yardenny.
Er ist einer der renommiertesten Kapitalmarktexperten in New York.
Und mit seinem Analysehaus Yad Any Research gehört er zu den größten Bullen an der Wall Street.
Lange hat er damit recht behalten.
Aber ansichts der derzeitigen Turbulenzen sprechen wir darüber, wie viel Potenzial noch in US-Aktien steckt und wo sich der Einstieg vielleicht auch jetzt noch lohnt.
Und danach stelle ich Ihnen meinen geschätzten Kolleague Markus Hinterberger vor.
Denn ich mache das hier nicht ganz alleine.
Marcus is Finanzkorrespondent in München und er übernimmt bei Handelsblatt Invest die Rolle des Special Hosts.
Damit Sie ihn gleich besser kennenlernen, übernimmt er heute die Rubrik Big Bad.
So and yet it's losing interview with Ed Jardeni.
Ed, welcome.
It's really terrific to have you on as my first guest.
Now, Ed, I remember when we talked in August 2020, so a while ago, in the middle of the pandemic, you talked to me about your roaring 2020 scenario.
So a very positive setup for US stocks that could last throughout the decade.
And at the time I thought, well, maybe he is a little too optimistic here, but so far you've been right.
Yeah, now that you say that.
Yes.
But now that we're kind of halfway through, how how are things looking?
Are you sticking to the to the roaring twenty twenty scenario?
Yes, yes, it's worked pretty well.
Uh quite well.
We're we're six years into uh the roaring twenty twenties.
Uh we got four more years to the end of twenty twenty-nine, and real GDP is at an all-time record high.
Consumption is at an all-time record high.
Uh corporate earnings all-time record high, and the stock market at all-time record high.
I I'd say from uh an economic and financial standpoint, uh it's been it has been the roaring twenty twenties.
And it was all kind of uh premised on my view that uh the economy would prove to be remarkably resilient.
And actually, if you if you think of every all the shocks that we've had since uh 2020, the pandemic, the lockdown, the supply chain disruptions, inflation, the Fed tightening tariffs.
And yet, despite all that, there was only one recession.
And it only lasted two months, and and really the last recession or last true recession was 2008, 2009.
And looking at the stock market right now, with all the things that have been going on around this year, right?
What's what areas do you like best right now at the US in the US stock market?
Well, I I had been recommending uh overweighting uh uh technology and communication services uh at the end of last year.
I went to market weight on on those two because the the two in the S P 500 account now for 45 percent of the market uh value, the market capitalization of the SP 500.
And I just found it uh uncomfortable to be recommending overweighting two sectors that were already uh had succeeded so well.
And I also felt that uh it was time to actually underweight the Magnificent Seven uh because uh they were increasingly competing with each other.
It's kind of like a game of thrones situation where seven kingdoms lived uh quietly next to each other and had their own monopolies that kept them prosperous.
Uh, but then with AI they started to compete and have to spend a lot more money, and there's basically been an AI arms race.
So I'm I'm underweighting Magnificent Seven.
Uh on the other hand, I remain uh uh a believer in the financials.
I think uh uh overweighting the financials makes sense, and maybe uh the smaller cap uh financials, the regional banks, uh, because uh there'll be more because there is more deregulation and probably more mergers and acquisitions.
I remain uh uh overweight in industrials, uh particularly defense, uh, for uh obvious reasons.
It's a very unsettled and unsettling geopolitical environment uh we we live in, but the transportation stocks are starting to act uh quite well, anticipating that the economy will continue to do do very well this year.
Uh what's new is I uh went from uh underweight to overweight healthcare, uh, particularly biotechnology.
And again, we we see the pharmaceutical companies uh having to fill up their pipelines, and so there's a lot of acquisitions going on of uh biotechnology companies.
Um that's kind of it in terms of the big sectors.
The really tiny sector is materials.
Um, I mean, in a broad perspective, I I have been recommending overweighting uh gold.
Uh benefit of hindsight, I should have said overweight precious metals and base metals and uh uh rare earth metals.
Uh and I I would do that as well.
And you were spot on on gold uh too.
Um in hinds gold.
Uh we'll work out remarkably well.
Um is it is it still time to buy gold or are we now and silver or would you like stay away from that?
Well, uh I I I confess I I am no expert on uh gold or or the other precious metals.
Um, you know, they are commodities and commodity people tend to know a lot more about supply and demand.
And in the past I've never had an opinion on gold because um as a strategist I have nothing to value it with.
Uh I don't have any interest uh coupons uh income, I don't have any uh dividends.
Uh I mean the miners have it, so you could maybe do an analysis of the miners, but gold itself I can't value.
But when it uh rose above $2,000 uh an ounce in uh 2024, um I looked at the charts and I said, you know, it's a new record high and uh uh clearly related to central banks buying gold really uh after Russia invaded Ukraine.
So I thought that was a pretty easy uh call.
I said just based on geopolitics, I like gold.
And then when it crossed to 3,000 at the beginning of uh 2025, um, I said I I think it's gonna go to 4,000 uh by the end of uh 2025, which looked delusional as well back then.
Uh but actually we got to 4500.
I wasn't uh bullish enough.
And uh when we crossed about 4,000 at the end of last year, I raised my target uh for this year from five thousand to six thousand obviously I'm glad I did now I'm wondering whether I need to raise it again for this year because we're already at 5,000 and uh still I'm sh aiming for 10,000 by the end of uh the decade.
And maybe have to raise that as well but we'll talk about that maybe some other time.
I do have one tool that uh has some fundamental uh relationship to uh uh uh as a way to price gold and that is if you put the price of gold uh in dollars versus um the S P 500 exactly on the same scale and right now the S P 500 is you know get getting close to 7,000 and here gold is at 5,000 and you know could could get to uh six seven thousand in the next a couple of years.
But if you look at that chart you see that gold is inversely related to stocks so it's a great diversifier in a uh to to have a balanced portfolio.
Uh but it also has about the same trend as the SP 500 and I believe the SP 500 is going to get to 1000 by the end of the decade, uh on uh market anticipating five hundred dollars per share earnings uh for the SP 500 in uh 2030.
So in 2029, the market will be anticipating 500 a share for um uh 2030.
Put a 20 multiple on that, you get 10,000.
And so if the stock market goes to 10,000, I think people will get get increasingly nervous about it because they'd be making so much money and diversify it, rebalance it to into gold and maybe some other assets.
Is that unusual that you have the risk-on asset stock at all-time high and rising and gold, the risk-off asset rising as well?
It's it's not unusual if you look at kind of the long-term trend.
It is unusual on a kind of cyclical basis on a four, you know, four, four-year kind of cycle basis.
Uh they tend to be inversely correlated.
Uh, but the trend uh tends to be the same.
But you know, the reality is the data only goes back to uh the the early 1970s when Richard Nixon uh closed the gold window.
Prior to that, gold was uh fixed uh around $34 uh an ounce.
So uh we don't really have that long a history of uh the the price of gold when it's left in a free market.
Uh so there's no particular reason why um it's not unusual in the sense that we don't have a lot of data to go by.
Interesting.
Now, last week we've seen another example of the taco trade, uh, where markets got a little unsettled uh before President Trump made another U-turn on his Green and strategy, which caused a relief rally.
And so since then there's kind of this debate in the market, I feel about um the meaning of the taco trade.
What if investors have more and more confidence he will course correct and then not sell and therefore maybe don't keep the president in check anymore?
How do you look at that?
I mean, that's that that's a clever way to look at the relationship between the stock market and the president.
Um but uh you know the taco trade is what uh Trump always chickens out.
Right.
But does he really chicken out or does he just take a super insane hawkish, you know, uh let's nuclear option uh uh attitude towards negotiation.
Uh I mean basically when he negotiates, he walks into the room, and the first thing he says is that you know, I don't even know why I'm wasting my time here.
Uh you you you're you're you're not important to me at all.
Uh what are you gonna do to uh make me feel better about you?
Uh it's a it's a unique way of uh so you know when he uh negotiates Greenland, he said, I'm gonna take it all.
And if you know, I'm uh you know, if if I need to do a military, I'll think about it.
And so it it takes an extreme position and everybody freaks out.
Uh and then uh negotiations occur like then in the next hour, and uh a framework is is worked out and the details uh to be determined.
Um but um, you know, it certainly wasn't a taco uh event when he uh bombed the nuclear facilities uh in Iran.
It wasn't a taco event.
Uh when he pulled Maduro out of Venezuela and declared that the Monroe Doctrine is back and that uh the Western Hemisphere basically uh is is uh is America's uh to uh to rule one way or the other.
When he talks to Mark Carney of of Canada, he calls him governor.
So that's right.
You know, I mean, he's a bully.
He's a bully, but you know, he's a bully that uh has some uh some military power, some economic power uh to to go with.
The risk in this uh this kind of approach is that the Chinese if there's a if there's a Monroe doc if the Monroe Doctrine is back with uh a core uh a Trump corollary, well, with that clearly there's a Putin doctrine, which is yeah, Putin believes that uh Ukraine, all of Ukraine belongs to Russia.
Um and uh China believes that all of the South Sea uh South China Sea belongs to China and uh the uh uh as does Taiwan.
Uh so uh is he just asking for uh for more geopolitical uh trouble, or are the other major countries that I just meant mentioned uh going to recognize that uh they're dealing with somebody uh who's uh got a lot of power behind them.
And you're saying markets in general can just watch and sit back and let that happen and not get distracted by all of that.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, that's been the reality of it.
Uh, you know, I've looked at uh the history of the SP 500 relative to geopolitical crises.
Uh when uh the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, the stock market went down, but a few months later it actually made a low because the United States bombed uh the um uh Navy of Japan in Midway, and the market back uh uh uh uh well well before the war was over anticipated that that the U.S.
would win, and the market actually bottomed back then.
We've had a lot of geopolitical uh experiences where the reality is they've been buying opportunities, especially since uh World War II.
And uh we just uh kind of saw that um I I mean we did have Russia invading Ukraine, and that uh was associated with a bear market, but for other reasons uh also we had inflation, we had the Fed tightening.
Uh but benefit of hindsight, uh that turned out to be an amazing buying opportunity.
Um the Greenland uh threats last week uh were good for one day as a buying opportunity.
So uh yeah, the the markets I think at the end of the day, the markets care about how these things ha have an impact on the US economy.
And uh when the markets last year recognized that uh call it the taco trade, uh I guess that was the beginning of the taco trade, right, Astrid?
Is uh uh Liberation Day.
Liberation Day, and then a few people backed off.
And the market went up 10% that day.
And so the market immediately figured out, oh, this is uh the way Trump negotiates.
And then lastly, Ed, look look at the risks for investors in the more near term.
We have potentially more tariffs on Canadian goods, we have uh Iran risk, um, potentially, you know, higher yields.
Uh what's what worries you, if anything?
Uh yeah, yeah, you've got all that, and uh of course, uh there's uh a chance here that uh the uh US government uh might might shut down again.
Uh so there there are uh definitely issue issues out there.
Uh but uh we're in the kind of the middle of the uh earnings season for the fourth quarter of last year, and it looks like uh earnings in the fourth quarter of last year s uh soared to a uh all-time uh record high, and uh the outlook is pretty good for earnings this year.
So if the economy and earnings could do as well as they've they did last year under those circumstances, I I think they'll continue to do well under the similar circumstances that we're facing up ahead here.
But I I do think the first half of the year may be a bit choppy because of the some of the issues you're raising here.
Uh but I think by the end of the year the market uh will get to about 7700 on the SP uh 500, and I think we'll see 10,000 by the end of the decade.
And I think we'll still look back and call it the roaring 2020s.
Uh they've been roaring for the past six years, and I think uh four more years to go where the market and the economy will continue to perform well.
And I feel with all the worries about the US and the role of the US and how this impacts the world order, that's a very refreshing take on the things that could actually go right this year and the next years to come.
So thank you so much, Ed.
Thank you.
Und jetzt stelle ich Ihnen meinen geschätzten Kollegen Markus Hinterberger vor.
The inhalte dieses podcasts entspreporter für Geldanlage und Märkte und du sitzt in München, da wo das Geld sitzt.
Ja, genau.
Also bei mir direkt ist es zwar nicht.
Also wenn ich hier so unter mein Tisch schaue, aber du hast recht, in München ist sehr viel Geld zu Hause.
Ich habe auch gestern wieder mit jemandem gesprochen, der meinte, naja, es ist ja eigentlich die heimliche Finanzhauptstadt Deutschlands.
Wobei natürlich alle großen Banken und Vermögensverwalter ihren Sitz in Frankfurt haben und das natürlich unbestrittenermaßen das Banken und Finanzzentrum ist.
Und in München findest du dann bestimmt auch viel Inspiration für Themen, richtig?
Ja, da gibt es alles von bis, also natürlich auch die ganzen klassischen Themen, wie zum Beispiel die komplette Fondsbranche hat hier ihre Dependancen natürlich alles Mögliche rund um ETFs.
Es gibt natürlich auch viele Anbieter, die im Bereich Private Markets unterwegs sind.
Oh, sehr gutes Thema.
But it's not exotische themes wie zum Beispiel Kunst oder zum Beispiel auch obwohl München eine Bierstadt is, gets the theme Weihnachtsinvestment auch.
Da habe ich mich auch schon mit auseinandergesetzt.
And yeah, there gets out spannendes to berichten.
And damit, Markus, bist du ein ganz wunderbarer Special Host für Handelsblatt Invest.
Und ich übergebe jetzt direkt an dich für unser Format Big Bad.
Genau, and für die Big Bad begrüße ich nun Paul Jackson, den obersten Marktanalyst beim Fonds Invesco.
Heute möchte ich von ihm wissen wie er momentan off Japan blicked.
Good afternoon, Mr.
Jackson.
It's a pleasure to have you here in our podcast Handelsblatt Invest.
In Japan, there's currently a heated debate about supporting the Gen, which has in the last years become a weak currency.
What opportunities does this present for investors?
Well, I you're absolutely right.
The Yen has become extremely weak because the Bank of Japan didn't tighten when everybody else did.
So uh if the Yen does appreciate from here, then I think that makes, for example, Japanese government bonds uh look attractive uh if you are not hedging the exposure.
So uh at the moment, 30 or 40 year government Japanese bonds are offering three and a half to four percent yields.
And if you allow for an increase in the currency on top of that, then I think that would be a very attractive return.
And is this an attractive return for investors from the Eurozone as well?
Yes, I think the yen, although it will increase the most against the US dollar, I think it will also increase versus uh the euro.
So uh I think there will still be currency gains for overseas investors from the Eurozone investing in Japan.
Now I have learned when the bond market is high, this is not good for the stock market.
And in the last year, the Nike index rose about over 30%.
And um quite a few investors have uh in the beginning of the year expected that the prices to continue rising.
Uh, in my humble opinion, this is a bad news for everyone who holds uh Japanese stocks.
Are you here with me?
Um yes, I agree to some extent.
I do like Japanese stocks, but it is true that when the Japanese yen strengthens, that tends to dampen the return on Japanese equities.
And we're talking here especially about those companies that earn money overseas.
So Japanese companies exporting from Japan or making uh profits elsewhere and repatriating those profits.
When expressed in yen, those profits will fall as the yen strengthens.
So that tends to cause Japanese equities to underperform relative to other markets in those periods of yen strength.
So you win on the currency, but you may give up some of that in terms of the equity market performance.
Okay.
So if you think about um investing in Japanese um companies which earn them money in their home market, might this be an opportunity?
Yes, I think that is the way to go.
Uh we're uh at the moment uh look as though we're going to get uh quite a bit of fiscal stimulus coming through in Japan, which should help the domestic economy.
So those domestically oriented companies that are not subject to the rise in the strength of the yen, I think they will perform better.
And you know, I uh I may think about um sectors such as banks, for example, where the yield curve has steepened a lot.
The bank sector, domestically oriented uh sector, I think could be a beneficiary, but certainly overall prefer domestic rather than overseas earners.
So thank you, Paul, for your insights in Japan.
And I forabschiede mich nun out here on this stelle and wünsche Ian allen good investments and bis zum next Mal.
Nächsten Mittwoch melden wir uns wieder.
Die Folge können Sie dann mit einem digitalen Handelswort abo hören.
Damit haben Sie auch Zugriff auf viele exklusive Recherchen aus der Finanzwelt und praktische Ratgebar für die Geldanlage.
Unser Angebot können Sie ein Monat lang für nur einen Euro testen.
Mehr Infos finden Sie über den Link in den Shownotes.
Bis dahin bleiben Sie am Ball und einen Schritt voraus.
Ihre Astrid.
Wie spürt man ein Phantom auf, von dem man nichts kennt, außer einem falschen Namen?
Dieser Mann hat uns so viel Leid und so viel Tränen und so viel Kummer bereitet.
Seit anderthalb Jahren verfolgen wir vom Handelsblatt einen untergetauchten Serienbetrüger.
Seine Spur führt über drei Ländergrenzen zu Gangster-Rappern und Drogendealern im Darknet.
Und am Ende werden wir ihn finden.
Catching Chris auf der Spur des Millionenbetrügers.
Der neue Investigativ-Podcast vom Handelsblatt.