Markets Face Geopolitical Headwinds, Private Credit Scrutiny

Alles auf Aktien – Die täglichen Finanzen-News • Jan 26, 2026 •german •5 min read

Global markets grapple with US political risks, tariff threats, and private credit concerns, while precious metals rally and Europe seeks economic self-reliance.

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Key Insights

Insight

Elevated geopolitical and domestic US political risks, including a potential government shutdown and new tariff threats against Canada over trade with China, are increasing market volatility.

Impact

This instability could lead to heightened uncertainty in US markets, impacting investor confidence, supply chains, and corporate earnings, especially in sectors vulnerable to trade wars.
Insight

Concerns are rising over the stability of Private Credit portfolios, evidenced by a significant write-down in BlackRock TCP Capital's Net Asset Value, signaling potential credit risk in a high-interest, slowing economy.

Impact

This raises questions about the robustness of popular private credit investments, potentially leading to increased scrutiny, re-evaluation of risk, and capital outflows from the sector.
Insight

European leaders advocate for greater economic self-reliance and significant investment in infrastructure to reduce dependence on the US and capitalize on existing capital export strength.

Impact

This strategic shift could drive increased investment in European markets, particularly in infrastructure and domestic industries, fostering regional growth and potentially strengthening the Eurozone's global economic standing.
Insight

Precious metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) are experiencing a structural re-evaluation and significant rallies, indicating their role as anti-crisis assets amidst global uncertainties.

Impact

The sustained rally in precious metals suggests continued investor flight to safety, reflecting broader market anxieties and potentially influencing asset allocation strategies towards traditional hedges.
Insight

Identifying dividend stocks requires careful consideration of foreign withholding taxes, as high rates in certain countries (e.g., Finland, Spain) can significantly erode net returns, making tax-friendly jurisdictions (e.g., UK, Singapore, Canada) more attractive.

Impact

Investors failing to account for withholding taxes risk significantly lower net dividend yields, prompting a strategic re-evaluation of global dividend portfolios towards tax-efficient markets to maximize returns.
Insight

The 'Davos Promenade Index' offers a heuristic for identifying potentially well-performing companies based on their prominent presence at the World Economic Forum, though performance can vary by year and sector.

Impact

While not investment advice, this unconventional indicator highlights companies with strong financial backing and confidence, which can be a qualitative factor for investors assessing corporate health and future prospects.

Key Quotes

"In einem Umfeld mit höheren Zinsen und nachlassender Konjunktur kommt das Kreditrisiko zurück. Und zwar offenbar sehr schnell und sichtbar."

"Die Welt, die wird rauer. Geopolitik und Technologie entwickeln, sich schneller, Allianzen werden fragile."

"Hohe Ausschüttungen sind nur dann wirklich attraktiv, wenn sie nicht durch Steuerabzüge oder schwächelnde Geschäftsmodelle entwertet werden."

Summary

Navigating Tumultuous Markets: Geopolitical Shifts, Credit Risks, and Investment Opportunities

Global markets are once again grappling with a complex web of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, driving volatility and reshaping investment strategies. From looming US government shutdowns and international trade disputes to rising concerns in the private credit sector, investors are urged to remain vigilant and adaptable.

Key Market Drivers and Risks

US Political Brinkmanship and Trade Tensions

The specter of another US government shutdown is unsettling markets. Political deadlock, stemming from disputes over a major spending package and homeland security funding, raises the risk of increased volatility, particularly for US indices and interest-rate-sensitive assets. Simultaneously, renewed US tariff threats against Canada – specifically 100% duties on Canadian goods should it proceed with a planned trade agreement with China involving EV tariffs – signal escalating trade tensions that could impact supply chains and corporate margins across North America.

Private Credit Under Scrutiny

Once seen as a stable, high-yield alternative, the private credit market is now facing closer examination. A significant 19% write-down in the Net Asset Value of BlackRock TCP Capital has sent a "harsh financial warning shot." This incident highlights the potential for rapid credit risk realization in an environment of higher interest rates and decelerating economic growth, challenging the perceived robustness of these portfolios.

Precious Metals Shine Amid Uncertainty

In times of crisis, traditional safe havens tend to outperform. Precious metals like gold and silver are witnessing a notable rally. Silver has surpassed $100 per troy ounce, hitting an all-time high, while gold is nearing the $5,000 mark. This surge, extending to palladium and platinum, suggests a structural re-evaluation of these assets as anti-crisis currencies and a hedge against global instability.

Strategic Responses and Investment Insights

European Economic Reawakening

The World Economic Forum in Davos underscored a crucial message for Europe: a need for greater self-reliance and strategic investment. Instead of solely relying on the US, Europe is urged to leverage its own economic strengths, particularly its substantial capital export capacity. This shift points towards potential growth opportunities in European markets, especially in infrastructure development.

The Davos "Promenade Index" as an Investment Heuristic

A unique takeaway from Davos is the "Promenade Index" – a concept suggesting that companies financially strong enough to maintain a prominent presence on the Davoser Promenade during the WEF tend to be strong performers. While its 2024 performance significantly outpaced the MSCI World, 2025 saw a slight underperformance, largely due to a downturn in software stocks. However, this remains an interesting heuristic for identifying firms with robust finances and confidence.

Optimizing Dividend Income: Navigating Withholding Taxes

For dividend investors, foreign withholding taxes can significantly erode returns. Countries like Finland (35% withholding) and others with rates above the easily reclaimable 15% pose a "tax trap." To maximize net dividends, investors should explore jurisdictions with no or low withholding taxes, such as the United Kingdom, Singapore, Canada, and Brazil. Companies in these regions, across sectors like energy, finance, and raw materials, offer attractive opportunities for optimizing dividend income.

Conclusion

The current market landscape demands a discerning eye. While geopolitical tensions and economic shifts present risks, they also illuminate new areas for strategic investment. From re-evaluating credit exposure to seeking safe havens and optimizing dividend strategies, informed decisions will be key to navigating these turbulent times. Keep a close watch on central bank announcements and upcoming corporate earnings, as these will continue to shape market trajectories.

Action Items

Monitor upcoming US political developments, including government funding deadlines and potential new tariffs, to assess their impact on market sentiment and supply chains.

Impact: Proactive monitoring allows investors to anticipate market shifts, adjust portfolio allocations, and mitigate risks associated with political instability and trade disputes.

Re-evaluate private credit exposure in investment portfolios, considering the recent performance signals and the evolving macroeconomic environment of higher interest rates and slower growth.

Impact: A critical review of private credit holdings can help investors identify and reduce exposure to vulnerable assets, protecting capital in a potentially challenging credit landscape.

Explore investment opportunities in European markets, particularly through infrastructure development ETFs or broad market indices, based on the continent's renewed focus on internal strength and investment.

Impact: Investing in European assets aligns with a strategic shift towards regional self-reliance, potentially capturing growth from increased domestic investment and reduced external dependencies.

Investigate dividend-paying companies in tax-friendly jurisdictions like the UK, Singapore, or Canada, to optimize net dividend yields by minimizing foreign withholding tax leakage.

Impact: Strategically selecting dividend stocks in jurisdictions with favorable tax treaties or no withholding taxes can significantly enhance total investment returns for income-focused portfolios.

Stay informed on upcoming central bank decisions (e.g., Federal Reserve) and major corporate earnings reports (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla) as these will dictate market direction.

Impact: Being aware of these key economic and corporate events is crucial for making timely investment decisions, understanding market sentiment, and reacting to potential catalysts or deterrents.

Mentioned Companies

Vale

Brazilian mining giant offering nearly 10% dividend yield, benefiting from rising raw material prices and no withholding tax.

Palantir

Among the winners in the 'Promenade Index' with gains exceeding 50%, reflecting strong performance.

Standard Chartered

Among the winners in the 'Promenade Index' with gains exceeding 50%, reflecting strong performance.

Fujitsu

Among the winners in the 'Promenade Index' with gains exceeding 50%, reflecting strong performance.

Cloudflare

Among the winners in the 'Promenade Index' with gains exceeding 50%, reflecting strong performance.

Legal & General

Highlighted as a high-yielding UK financial services company with a robust business model and 8.5% dividend yield.

CrowdStrike

Newly included in the 'Promenade Index', indicating a prominent presence and perceived strength at the WEF.

Dell

Newly included in the 'Promenade Index', indicating a prominent presence and perceived strength at the WEF.

Shell

Mentioned as a reliable and popular UK dividend payer, benefiting from a tax-friendly capital market.

BP

Mentioned as a reliable and popular UK dividend payer, benefiting from a tax-friendly capital market.

HSBC

Mentioned as a reliable and popular UK dividend payer, benefiting from a tax-friendly capital market.

Diageo

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Reckitt Benckiser

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Rio Tinto

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Imperial Brands

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Sage Group

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Unilever

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Aviva

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

Phoenix Group

Identified as a reliable dividend payer in the UK, a tax-friendly jurisdiction.

OPAP

Greek company benefiting from the country's economic comeback, with potentially low withholding tax.

National Bank of Greece

Benefiting from the Greek economic comeback, with potentially low withholding tax.

DBS Group

Listed as an interesting candidate in Singapore due to no withholding tax on dividends.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation

Listed as an interesting candidate in Singapore due to no withholding tax on dividends.

Singapore Exchange

Listed as an interesting candidate in Singapore due to no withholding tax on dividends.

Jardine Matheson

Mentioned as an attractive dividend stock utilizing Hong Kong's listing advantages.

Invesco

Mentioned as an attractive dividend stock utilizing favorable listing advantages.

Tokyo Marine

Mentioned as an attractive dividend stock utilizing Japan's listing advantages.